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Spatial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Terminations by Refinance, Sale and Default

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  • Yongheng Deng
  • Andrey D. Pavlov
  • Lihong Yang

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of spatially correlated unobservable variables on the refinancing, selling and default decisions of mortgage borrowers. Virtually the entire mortgage literature acknowledges that borrower-specific characteristics, such as culture, education or access to information, play an important role in mortgage termination decisions. While we do not observe these variables directly, we note that borrowers of similar background tend to cluster together in neighborhoods. We estimate a competing risks hazard model with random effects using a three-stage maximum likelihood estimation approach. We utilize the space-varying coefficient method to modify the covariance structure according to the spatial distribution of the observations. Beyond a significant improvement of the model performance, this yields a number of insightful implications for mortgage termination behavior. For instance, borrowers of the affluent "West Side" of Los Angeles County both refinance and move at a higher rate than predicted by the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. At the same time, borrowers from some lower-valued neighborhoods tend to stay longer than expected with their mortgages and properties. Copyright 2005 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 739-764

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:33:y:2005:i:4:p:739-764

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Cited by:
  1. Xudong An & John Clapp & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 245-271, October.
  2. Roberto Quercia & Jonathan Spader, 2008. "Does homeownership counseling affect the prepayment and default behavior of affordable mortgage borrowers?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 304-325.
  3. Agatha M. Poroshina, 2014. "Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 30/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  4. de Wit, Erik & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2010. "Asymmetric Information and List Price Reductions in the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 7799, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Jonathan Spader, 2010. "Beyond Disparate Impact: Risk-based Pricing and Disparity in Consumer Credit History Scores," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 61-78, June.
  6. Yuliya Demyanyk & Iftekhar Hasan, 2009. "Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods," Working Paper 0904, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2009. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
  8. Zhenguo Lin & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2009. "Spillover Effects of Foreclosures on Neighborhood Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 387-407, May.
  9. Agarwal, Sumit & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Hassler, Olivier, 2005. "The impact of the 2001 financial crisis and the economic policy responses on the Argentine mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 242-270, September.

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