The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK
AbstractThis paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of the diversion of migration flows away from Germany towards the UK in the course of the EU's Eastern Enlargement. The EU has agreed transitional periods for the free movement of workers with the new member states from Central and Eastern Europe. The selective application of migration restrictions during the transitional periods has resulted in a reversal of the pre-enlargement allocation of migration flows from the new member states across the EU. Based on a forecast of the migration potential under the conditions of free movement and of the transitional arrangements, we employ a CGE model with imperfect labour markets to analyse the macroeconomic effects of this diversion process. We find that EU Eastern enlargement has increased in the GDP per capita in the UK substantially, but that the diversion of migration flows towards the UK has reduced wage gains and the decline in unemployment there. The effects of the EU Eastern enlargement are less favourable for Germany, but the diversion of migration flows has protected workers there against a detrimental impact on wages and unemployment.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.
Volume (Year): 23 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148
EU Eastern enlargement; International migration; Computable equilibrium model; Wage-setting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
- J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Levine, 1999. "The welfare economics of immigration control," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 23-43.
- David Blanchflower & Jumana Saleheen & Chris Shadforth, 2007.
"The impact of the recent migration from Eastern Europe on the UK economy,"
17, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Blanchflower, David G. & Saleheen, Jumana & Shadforth, Chris, 2007. "The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 2615, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Djajic, Slobodan & Milbourne, Ross, 1988. "A general equilibrium model of guest-worker migration : The source-country perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 335-351, November.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991.
"Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, September.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, September.
- repec:iab:iabzaf:v:39:i:1:p:35-56 is not listed on IDEAS
- Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-42, March.
- Hatton, Timothy J, 1995.
"A Model of U.K. Emigration, 1870-1913,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 407-15, August.
- Ben J. Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2001.
"Eastern enlargement of the EU: Jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries,"
Economics working papers
2001-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Ben J. Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2002. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 718, CESifo Group Munich.
- Heijdra, Ben J. & Keuschnigg, Christian & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2002. "Eastern enlargement of the EU: jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries," CCSO Working Papers 200213, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4367, July.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2, 8.
- Ray Barrell & John Fitzgerald & Rebecca Riley, 2010.
"EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts,"
Journal of Common Market Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 373-395, 03.
- Ray Barrell & John FitzGerald & Rebecca Riley, 2007. "EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts," Papers WP203, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Rebecca Riley & Ray Barrell, 2007. "EU enlargement and migration: Assessing the macroeconomic impacts," NIESR Discussion Papers 1491, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
- Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
- Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000.
"The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration,"
Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications
00-39, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
- Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2001. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," IZA Discussion Papers 266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011.
"Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
- Jeffrey Grogger & Gordon H. Hanson, 2008. "Income Maximization and the Selection and Sorting of International Migrants," NBER Working Papers 13821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Salop, Steven C, 1979. "A Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 117-25, March.
- Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006.
"On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?,"
Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
- Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?," IZA Discussion Papers 1710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2006. "Estimating and forecasting European migration : methods, problems and results," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 35-56.
- David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
- Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
- Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
- Nickell, S J & Andrews, M, 1983. "Unions, Real Wages and Employment in Britain 1951-79," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(0), pages 183-206, Supplemen.
- Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.