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Macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion : a CGE simulation for Germany and the UK

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Author Info

  • Baas, Timo

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Brücker, Herbert

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of the diversion of migration flows away from Germany towards the UK in the course of the EU Eastern Enlargement. The EU has agreed with the new member states from Central and Eastern Europe transitional periods for the free movement of workers. The selective application of migration restrictions during the transitional periods has resulted in a reversal of the pre-enlargement allocation of migration flows from the new member states across the EU: Germany as the main destination before enlargement attracts only modest immigration flows since 2004, while the UK and Ireland which have been only marginally affected by immigration prior to enlargement absorb about 60% of the inflows in the post-enlargement period. The macroeconomic effects of this diversion process is analysed in this paper on the basis of a CGE model which considers wage rigidities. We find that higher migration is associated with larger GDP and employment gains, but also with a smaller wage increase and a smaller decline of the unemployment rate. The diversion of migration flows away from Germany towards the UK yields thus a higher GDP and employment growth in the UK. The joint GDP of Germany and the UK declines by 0.1 per cent as a consequence of the migration restrictions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number 200803.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200803

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Keywords: EU-Osterweiterung - Auswirkungen; internationale Wanderung; Ost-West-Wanderung; Arbeitskräftemobilität; Mobilitätsbarriere; Wirtschaftsentwicklung - internationaler Vergleich; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Beschäftigungseffekte; Arbeitsmarktentwicklung; Arbeitslosigkeit; Lohnentwicklung; Beschäftigungsentwicklung; Einwanderung; Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Großbritannien; Irland; Europäische Union; Osteuropa;

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References

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  1. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
  2. Blanchflower, D. & Oswald, A., 1989. "The Wage Curve," Papers 340, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  3. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?," IZA Discussion Papers 1710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Salop, Steven C, 1979. "A Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 117-25, March.
  6. Paul Levine, 1999. "The welfare economics of immigration control," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 23-43.
  7. Bruder, Jana, 2003. "East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 40, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
  8. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
  9. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
  10. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345.
  11. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Timo Baas & Herbert Brucker, 2010. "Macroeconomic impact of Eastern enlargement on Germany and UK: evidence from a CGE model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 125-128.
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