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Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams

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Author Info

  • Fertig, Michael

    ()
    (ISG, Cologne)

  • Schmidt, Christoph M.

    ()
    (RWI)

Abstract

Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed to be known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed the usual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses this extrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and the ensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 183.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Slobodan Djajic (ed.), International Migration: Trends, Policy and Economic Impact, London/New York (2001), 110-136; see IZA Reprints 94/01
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp183

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Related research

Keywords: Demographic Structure; Variance Components; GMM;

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