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Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams

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Author Info
Fertig, Michael (University of Heidelberg)
Schmidt, Christoph M. () (University of Heidelberg, CEPR, London and IZA, Bonn)

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Abstract

Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed to be known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed the usual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses this extrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and the ensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 183.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp183

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Related research
Keywords: Demographic Structure; Variance Components; GMM;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.

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