The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy
AbstractUK population growth over the last thirty-five years has been remarkably low in comparison with other countries; the population grew by just 7% between 1971 and 2004, less than all the other EU15 countries except Germany. The UK population has grown at a faster pace since the turn of the millennium driven primarily by changes in net migration, and in particular from an influx of migrants from eight East European (A8) countries. There appears to be consistent evidence from the Worker Registration Scheme and National Insurance Number applications that approximately 500,000 migrants from the A8 countries had come to work in the UK between May 2004 and late 2006. But other sources suggest approximately half of these workers have likely returned to their country of origin. We argue that, at present, it appears that A8 immigration has tended to increase supply by more than it has increased demand in the UK (in the short run). This migration flow, we argue, has acted to reduce inflationary pressures and to lower the natural rate of unemployment.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2615.
Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- David Blanchflower & Jumana Saleheen & Chris Shadforth, 2007. "The impact of the recent migration from Eastern Europe on the UK economy," Discussion Papers 17, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2007-03-24 (European Economics)
- NEP-LAB-2007-03-24 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LTV-2007-03-24 (Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1998.
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- David G. Blanchflower & Richard Freeman, 1997. "The attitudinal legacy of Communist labor relations," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 50(3), pages 438-459, April.
- David G. Blanchflower, 2004. "Self-Employment: More may not be better," NBER Working Papers 10286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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