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The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows

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  • Simone BERTOLI

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

  • Herbert BRÜCKER

    (IAB - IAB - University of Bamberg)

  • Jesús FERNÁNDEZ-HUERTAS MORAGA

    (IAE - FEDEA - CSIC)

Abstract

The European crisis has diverted migration flows away from countries affected by the recession towards Germany. The diversion process creates a challenge for traditional discrete-choice models that assume that only bilateral factors account for dyadic migration rates. This paper shows how taking into account the sequential nature of migration decisions leads to write the bilateral migration rate as a function of expectations about the evolution of economic conditions in alternative destinations. Empirically, we incorporate 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable capturing forward-looking expectations and apply our model to an empirical analysis of migration from the countries of the European Economic Association to Germany in the period 2006-2012. We show that disregarding alternative destinations leads to substantial biases in the estimation of the determinants of migration rates.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00913869.

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Date of creation: 04 Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00913869

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Benedikt Herrmann & Alexander Kritikos, 2013. "Growing out of the crisis: hidden assets to Greece's transition to an innovation economy," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, December.
  2. Beine, M. & Bricongne,J-C. & Bourgeon, P., 2013. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," Working papers, Banque de France 453, Banque de France.
  3. Neubecker, Nina & Smolka, Marcel & Steinbacher, Anne, 2012. "Networks and selection in international migration to Spain," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 35, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
  4. Julia Jauer & Thomas Liebig & John P. Martin & Patrick Puhani, 2014. "Migration as an Adjustment Mechanism in the Crisis? A Comparison of Europe and the United States," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 155, OECD Publishing.
  5. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(43), pages 3-77.
  6. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2014. "A practitioners' guide to gravity models of international migration," Working Papers 2014-03, FEDEA.
  7. Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2014. "The Incentive Effects of Minimum Pensions: extended version," Working Papers 2014-04, FEDEA.
  8. Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2014. "Immigrant Selection over the Business Cycle: The Spanish Boom and the Great Recession," Working Papers 2014-05, FEDEA.

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