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Fiscal and Financial Determinants of Eurozone Sovereign Spreads

Author

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  • Giovanni Caggiano

    (University of Padova)

  • Luciano Greco

    (University of Padova)

Abstract

The relationship between fiscal and financial euro area indicators and sovereign yield spreads has changed after the start of the financial crisis. Increased financial volatility has magnified the impact of fiscal conditions as drivers of sovereign risk, has widened the set of macroeconomic determinants, and has caused substantial interactions between fiscal and financial variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Caggiano & Luciano Greco, 2012. "Fiscal and Financial Determinants of Eurozone Sovereign Spreads," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0148, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    • Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, María Dolores & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2018. "“Whatever it takes” to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-30.
    2. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar & Kazemi, Mina, 2020. "The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas, 2017. "Quantitative easing and the pricing of EMU sovereign debt," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Perego, Erica R. & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2016. "Macro-economic determinants of European stock and government bond correlations: A tale of two regions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 214-232.
    5. Marco Di Pietro & Luigi Marattin & Raoul Minetti, 2021. "Public debt, sovereign spreads and the unpleasant arithmetic of fiscal consolidations," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 155-178, August.
    6. Florence Bouvet & Ryan Brady & Sharmila King, 2013. "Debt Contagion in Europe: A Panel-VAR Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 44, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    7. Brücker, Herbert & Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Christina Erlwein-Sayer, 2018. "Macroeconomic News Sentiment: Enhanced Risk Assessment for Sovereign Bonds," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-27, December.
    9. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Bagdatoglou, George & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2015. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 363-371.
    10. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2023. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity: Machine Learning Insights on Causality and Prediction," IREA Working Papers 202315, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2023.
    11. Florence Bouvet & Ryan Brady & Sharmila King, 2013. "Debt Contagion in Europe: A Panel-Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Analysis," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-23, December.
    12. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    13. Theobald, Thomas & Tober, Silke, 2020. "Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 27-37.
    14. B. De Backer, 2015. "Decomposition of the dynamics of sovereign yield spreads in the euro area," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 54-75, June.
    15. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2024. "Asymmetric Sovereign Risk: Implications for Climate Change Preparation," IREA Working Papers 202401, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2024.
    16. Cayirli, Omer & Aktas, Huseyin & Kayalidere, Koray, 2022. "A closer look into the behavior of emerging market sovereign spreads: State-dependent and asymmetric behaviors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 522-548.
    17. Sérgio C. Lagoa & Emanuel R. Leão & Diptes P. Bhimjee, 2022. "Dynamics of the public-debt-to-gdp ratio: can it explain the risk premium of treasury bonds?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1089-1122, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Financial Crisis; Refinancing risk; Regime switch; Cross-country Panel.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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