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The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows

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  • Simone Bertoli
  • Herbert Brücker
  • Jesus Fernández-Huertas Moraga

Abstract

The analys is of how the economic crisis in Europe has reshaped migration flows faces two challenges: (i)the confounding influence of correlated changes in the attractiveness of alternative destinations, and (ii)the role of rapidly changing expectations about the evolution of the economic conditions in various countries. This paper addresses the first challenge by controlling for multilateral resistance to migration, and the second one by incorporating 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable in a study of European bilateral migration flows to Germany between 2006 and 2012. We show that, while expectations and current economic conditions at origin are significant determinants of migration, diversion effects account for 78 percent of the observed increase in German gross migrationin ows.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2013-03.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2013-03

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Cited by:
  1. Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2014. "The Incentive Effects of Minimum Pensions: extended version," Working Papers 2014-04, FEDEA.
  2. Neubecker, Nina & Smolka, Marcel & Steinbacher, Anne, 2012. "Networks and selection in international migration to Spain," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 35, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
  3. Julia Jauer & Thomas Liebig & John P. Martin & Patrick Puhani, 2014. "Migration as an Adjustment Mechanism in the Crisis? A Comparison of Europe and the United States," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 155, OECD Publishing.
  4. Beine, M. & Bricongne,J-C. & Bourgeon, P., 2013. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," Working papers, Banque de France 453, Banque de France.
  5. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2014. "A practitioners' guide to gravity models of international migration," Working Papers 2014-03, FEDEA.
  6. Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2014. "Immigrant Selection over the Business Cycle: The Spanish Boom and the Great Recession," Working Papers 2014-05, FEDEA.
  7. Herrmann, Benedikt & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2013. "Growing out of the Crisis: Hidden Assets to Greece's Transition to an Innovation Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 7606, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(43), pages 3-77.

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