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Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration

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  • Beine, M.
  • Bricongne,J-C.
  • Bourgeon, P.

Abstract

Traditional theories of integration such as the optimum currency area approach attribute a prominent role to international labour mobility in coping with relative economic fluctuations between countries. However, recent studies on international migration have overlooked the role of short-run factors in explaining international migration flows. This paper aims to fill that gap. We first derive a model of optimal migration choice based on an extension of the traditional Random Utility Model. Our model predicts that an improvement in the economic activity in a potential destination country relative to any origin country may trigger some additional migration flows on top of the impact exerted by long-run factors such as the wage differential or the bilateral distance. Compiling a dataset with annual gross migration flows between 30 developed origin and destination countries over the 1980-2010 period, we empirically test the magnitude of the effect of short-run factors on bilateral flows. Our econometric results indicate that relative aggregate fluctuations and employment rates affect the intensity of bilateral migration flows. We also provide compelling evidence that the Schengen agreements and the introduction of the euro significantly raised the international mobility of workers between the member countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 453.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:453

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Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Keywords: International Migration; Business cycles; OECD countries; Income Maximization.;

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  1. Nicole B. Simpson & Chad Sparber, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Run Determinants of Less- Educated Immigrant Flows into U.S. States," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1226, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  2. Timothy Hatton & Jeffery Williamson, 2002. "What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?," CEPR Discussion Papers 458, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  3. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2008. "The Erosion of Colonial Trade Linkages After Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
  5. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2012. "Climatic factors as determinants of International Migration," CREA Discussion Paper Series 12-01, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  6. David Card, 2005. "Is the New Immigration Really So Bad?," NBER Working Papers 11547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
  8. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2012. "Visa Policies, Networks and the Cliff at the Border," IZA Discussion Papers 7094, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 7170, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. David McKenzie & Hillel Rapoport, 2010. "Self-Selection Patterns in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Role of Migration Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 811-821, November.
  11. Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-HuertasMoraga, 2011. "Multilateral Resistance to Migration," Working Papers 2011-04, FEDEA.
  12. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  13. Head, Keith & Ries, John & Swenson, Deborah, 1995. "Agglomeration benefits and location choice: Evidence from Japanese manufacturing investments in the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 223-247, May.
  14. Borjas, George J, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-53, September.
  15. George J. Borjas, 2006. "Native Internal Migration and the Labor Market Impact of Immigration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
  16. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
  18. David Card, 1997. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," NBER Working Papers 5927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  20. Laurence M. Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2013. "Okun's Law: Fit at Fifty?," NBER Working Papers 18668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Brücker, Herbert & Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Julia Jauer & Thomas Liebig & John P. Martin & Patrick Puhani, 2014. "Migration as an Adjustment Mechanism in the Crisis? A Comparison of Europe and the United States," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 155, OECD Publishing.
  3. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2014. "A practitioners' guide to gravity models of international migration," Working Papers 2014-03, FEDEA.

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