IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/ekonom/v95y2016i1p84-111n5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Significance of Country-Specific and Common Risk Factors for CEE Government Bond Spreads Changes

Author

Listed:
  • Juodžiukynienė Greta

    (Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, Saulėtekio Ave. 9-II, LT-10222,Vilnius, Lithuania)

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the relationship between common European Union and country-specific risk factors of sovereign bond spreads for Central and Eastern European countries over the period of 2004-2014. The model, estimated using Pooled Mean Group techniques, that accounts for both common long-run determinants and cross-country heterogeneities in sovereign bond spreads, tends to suggest that country-specific and common factors are important in the long-run, but common European Union factors are the main determinants of bond spreads in the short-run, i.e., market volatility index series converges with changes of sovereign bond spreads and turns out to be the predominant factor in the short-run. Furthermore, countries with stronger fundamentals have a tendency for lower responsiveness to changes in global risk aversion. The decomposition of changes in spreads for the purpose to compare actual and estimated spreads specifies that during risk-on periods (when the increase of misalignment falls down) there is consistency for increasing of creditworthiness undervaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Juodžiukynienė Greta, 2016. "The Significance of Country-Specific and Common Risk Factors for CEE Government Bond Spreads Changes," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(1), pages 84-111, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ekonom:v:95:y:2016:i:1:p:84-111:n:5
    DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2016.1.9908
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.15388/ekon.2016.1.9908
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.15388/ekon.2016.1.9908?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hallerberg, Mark & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Ms. Susan M Schadler & Mr. Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2007. "Do Economists’ and Financial Markets’ Perspectives on the New Members of the EU differ?," IMF Working Papers 2007/065, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
    4. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
    5. Peter G. Dunne & Michael J. Moore & Richard Portes, 2007. "Benchmark Status in Fixed‐Income Asset Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9‐10), pages 1615-1634, November.
    6. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
    7. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    8. Marco Pagano, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 531-554, Winter.
    9. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    10. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957.
    11. Costantini, Mauro & Fragetta, Matteo & Melina, Giovanni, 2014. "Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU: An optimal currency area perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 337-349.
    12. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Ebner, André, 2009. "An empirical analysis on the determinants of CEE government bond spreads," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 97-121, June.
    14. Raffaela Giordano & Marcello Pericoli & Pietro Tommasino, 2013. "Pure or Wake-up-Call Contagion? Another Look at the EMU Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 131-160, June.
    15. Favero, Carlo & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2010. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 107-134, February.
    16. Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Jan-Christoph Ruelke, 2011. "Fiscal variables and bond spreads - evidence from Eastern European countries and Turkey," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(17), pages 1291-1307.
    17. Ioana Alexopoulou & Irina Bunda & Annalisa Ferrando, 2010. "Determinants of Government Bond Spreads in New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 5-37, September.
    18. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    19. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
    20. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe [‘Computing robust standard errors for within-group estimators’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 444-489.
    21. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2008. "The term structure of interest rates in the 12 newest EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 479-490.
    22. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market? [‘What “hides” behind sovereign debt ratings?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(58), pages 191-240.
    23. Pozzi, Lorenzo & Wolswijk, Guido, 2012. "The time-varying integration of euro area government bond markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 36-53.
    24. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2010/184, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    26. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "What Drives Sovereign Risk Premiums?: An Analysis of Recent Evidence from the Euro Area," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 718, OECD Publishing.
    27. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, Decembrie.
    28. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds [‘Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: some evidence from the EU’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532.
    29. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
    30. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Ms. Edda Zoli & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2009/222, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    33. Niccolò Battistini & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2013. "Systemic Risk and Home Bias in the Euro Area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 494, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    2. Samir Kadiric, 2022. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 267-298, May.
    3. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    4. Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2015. "Expectations and systemic risk in EMU government bond spreads," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 711-724, April.
    5. Petra Palic & Petra Posedel Simovic & Maruska Vizek, 2017. "The Determinants of Country Risk Premium Volatility: Evidence from a Panel VAR Model," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 19(1), pages 37-66, June.
    6. Eleonora Cutrini & Giorgio Galeazzi, 2017. "External Public Debt, Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(9), pages 1718-1749, September.
    7. Sha Liu, 2014. "The Impact of Textual Sentiment on Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone Crisis," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 18(3-4), pages 215-248, September.
    8. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    9. Eleonora Cutrini and Giorgio Galeazzi, 2014. "Contagion in the Euro crisis: capital flows and trade linkages," Working Papers 44-2014, Macerata University, Department of Studies on Economic Development (DiSSE), revised Nov 2014.
    10. Luciana Barbosa & Sónia Costa, 2010. "Determinants of the sovereign bond yield spreads in the Euro Area in the context of the economic and financial crisis," Working Papers w201022, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Britta Niehof, 2014. "Spillover Effects in Government Bond Spreads: Evidence from a GVAR Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201458, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Pietro Alessandrini & Michele Fratianni & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Andrea Presbitero, 2014. "External Imbalances and Fiscal Fragility in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 3-34, February.
    14. Paweł Tobera, 2019. "Ocena ratingowa a koszt obsługi długu publicznego w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej w latach 2005–2017," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 87-109.
    15. Oliveira, Luís & Curto, José Dias & Nunes, João Pedro, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign credit spread changes in the Euro-zone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 278-304.
    16. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
    17. D’Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2014. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads – The times, they are a-changin," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 155-176.
    18. Beck, Roland & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Hantzsche, Arno & Rau-Göhring, Matthias, 2017. "Determinants of sub-sovereign bond yield spreads – The role of fiscal fundamentals and federal bailout expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 72-98.
    19. Aristei, David & Martelli, Duccio, 2014. "Sovereign bond yield spreads and market sentiment and expectations: Empirical evidence from Euro area countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-84.
    20. Christopher Findlay & Silvia Sorescu & Camilo Umana Dajud, 2016. "Markets are Smart! Structural Reforms and Country Risk," Working Papers 2016-23, CEPII research center.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:ekonom:v:95:y:2016:i:1:p:84-111:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.