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News and noise in crime politics: The role of announcements and risk attitudes

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  • Maennig, Wolfgang
  • Wilhelm, Stefan

Abstract

We examine the process of intertemporal decision-making among potential offenders by analyzing their response to announcements of future changes in anticrime policies. We specify the utility function of potential criminals based on Epstein-Zin preferences to explicitly account for risk attitudes. In this setting, news shocks in anticrime policies can bring about immediate changes in delinquency, but heterogeneous risk attitudes among potential offenders may cause unintended outcomes in the short run. We further show that short-run effects may solidify in the event that the announced policy changes are not ultimately implemented (noise shocks). We demonstrate that rising uncertainty about policy changes may be beneficial in crime prevention, but only among risk-averse agents. Hence, this paper highlights potential pitfalls that result from neglecting the importance of risk attitudes in crime prevention – and potentially other policies.

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  • Maennig, Wolfgang & Wilhelm, Stefan, 2023. "News and noise in crime politics: The role of announcements and risk attitudes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:129:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323003723
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106560
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    2. Wolfgang Maennig, 2023. "Centralization in National High-Performance Sports Systems: Reasons, Processes, Dimensions, Characteristics, and Open Questions," Working Papers 073, Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Anticrime policies; DSGE with risk-taking preferences; News shock; Noise shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • K10 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - General (Constitutional Law)
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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