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Modeling crime in Japan

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda
  • Andrés, Antonio R.
  • Yamamura, Eiji

Abstract

This study aims at identifying the factors of aggregate and disaggregate crime categories in Japan over the period 1964–2009. All crime categories are related to police outlays, police numbers, unemployment, divorce and urbanization rates. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is implemented to test the existence of a long-run relationship amongst the variables. Cointegration analysis yields that the main deterrent effect on crime is the police presence and this factor is further confirmed by the real police outlays. As for the essential cause of crime, urbanization stands as the leading factor which is followed by divorce and unemployment rates. Policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Halicioglu, Ferda & Andrés, Antonio R. & Yamamura, Eiji, 2012. "Modeling crime in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1640-1645.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:1640-1645
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.026
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    2. Maennig, Wolfgang & Wilhelm, Stefan, 2023. "News and noise in crime politics: The role of announcements and risk attitudes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Burhan, Nik Ahmad Sufian & Che Razak, Razli & Selamat, Muhamad Rosli & Rosli, Muhamad Ridhwan, 2017. "Intellectual Giftedness for Leadership: How Robust is the Crime Reducing Effect of Intellectual Class?," MPRA Paper 77467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Vujić, Sunčica & Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2016. "Intervention time series analysis of crime rates: The case of sentence reform in Virginia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 311-323.
    5. Adekoya Adenuga Fabian & Razak Nor Azam Abdul, 2016. "The Link Between Economic Growth, Crime and Deterrence Measures in Nigeria," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 26(4), pages 24-40, November.
    6. Ryo Takahashi, 2017. "Climate, Crime, And Suicide: Empirical Evidence From Japan," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Dutta, Nabamita & Jana, Dipparna & Kar, Saibal, 2020. "Does state-level per capita income affect juvenile delinquency? An empirical analysis for Indian states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 109-120.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Cointegration; Time series; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • A14 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Sociology of Economics
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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