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Online Appendix to "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation"

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
  2. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
  3. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2020. "Labor Market and Financial Shocks: A Time‐Varying Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 777-801, June.
  4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2021. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 442-454, October.
  5. Moramarco, Graziano, 2024. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 777-795.
  6. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
  8. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Fabrizio Venditti & Oscar JordÃ, 2023. "Decomposing the monetary policy multiplier," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1422, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
  10. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
  11. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2024. "Capturing Macro‐Economic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 1099-1127, August.
  12. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
  13. Gokan, Toshitaka & Kichko, Sergey & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2019. "How do trade and communication costs shape the spatial organization of firms?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  14. Reif Magnus, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and forecasting macroeconomic aggregates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-20, April.
  15. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
  16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Aygun, Gurcan & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of economic uncertainty and financial shocks under low and high financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  17. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
  18. Martins, Manuel M.F. & Verona, Fabio, 2021. "Bond vs. bank finance and the Great Recession," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  19. Lukas Pfeifer & Martin Hodula, 2018. "A Profit-to-Provisioning Approach to Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Czech Example," Working Papers 2018/5, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
  20. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
  21. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
  22. Holland, Marcio & Marçal, Emerson & de Prince, Diogo, 2020. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 40-52.
  23. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas, 2017. "Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 250, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  24. Moritz A. Roth, 2018. "International co-movements in recessions," Working Papers 1804, Banco de España.
  25. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Leonardo Del Vecchio & Arianna Miglietta, 2019. "Financial Conditions and 'Growth at Risk' in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1242, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  26. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
  27. Mansur, Alfan, 2023. "Capital flow volatility regimes and monetary policy dilemma: Evidence from New Zealand," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  28. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé & Thompson, Kirsten & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2018. "Comparing the forecasting ability of financial conditions indices: The case of South Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 245-259.
  29. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei‐Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2024. "Nonlinear Transmission of Financial Shocks: Some New Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 5-33, February.
  30. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  31. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
  33. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The simpler the better: measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2451, European Central Bank.
  34. Bennani, Hamza & Burgard, Jan Pablo & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023. "The Financial Accelerator in the Euro Area: New Evidence Using a Mixture VAR Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(7), pages 1893-1931, October.
  35. Graziano Moramarco, 2025. "Regime‐Switching Density Forecasts Using Economists' Scenarios," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 833-845, March.
  36. repec:rfh:jprjor:v:9:y:2023:i:1:p:51-63 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Thibaut Duprey & Benjamin Klaus, 2017. "How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models," Staff Working Papers 17-32, Bank of Canada.
  38. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
  39. Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
  40. Hafsa Hina & Henna Ahsan & Hania Afzal, 2022. "The Information in the Yield Spread for the Recession in the Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:11, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  41. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.
  42. Seitz, Franz & Baumann, Ursel & Albuquerque, Bruno, 2015. "The information content of money and credit for US activity," Working Paper Series 1803, European Central Bank.
  43. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  44. Andrea Carolina Vargas-Páez & Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas, 2021. "Efecto del riesgo de tipo de cambio en la rentabilidad de los bonos soberanos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1165, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  45. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
  46. Ian Borg & Germano Ruisi, 2018. "Forecasting using Bayesian VARs: A Benchmark for STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
  47. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2022. "Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle through the MIDAS Lens," CESifo Working Paper Series 10062, CESifo.
  48. Simone Arrigoni & Alina Bobasu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 668-697, December.
  49. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
  50. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
  51. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hankins, William B. & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2018. "Partisan conflict, policy uncertainty and aggregate corporate cash holdings," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-90.
  52. Capasso Salvatore & Oreste Napolitano & Ana Laura Vivero, 2023. "The Financial Conditions Index as an additional tool for policymakers in developing countries: the Mexican case," CSEF Working Papers 664, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  53. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2025. "Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle Through the MIDAS Lens," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 89-107, January.
  54. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.
  55. Kanazawa, Nobuyuki, 2020. "Radial basis functions neural networks for nonlinear time series analysis and time-varying effects of supply shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  56. Del Negro, Marco & Hasegawa, Raiden B. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2016. "Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 391-405.
  57. Baek, Ingul & Liu, Jia & Noh, Sanha, 2024. "Real estate uncertainty and financial conditions over the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 656-675.
  58. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/27od5pb99881folvtfs8s3k16l is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, May.
  60. Theshne Kisten, 2023. "Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  61. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Doğuhan Sündal, 2022. "Business cycles, financial conditions, and nonlinearities," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 343-383, May.
  62. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  63. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Fusun Celebi Boz & Melike Torun, 2024. "Do Economic and Financial Stabilities Matter for Political Stability in Estonia?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 15202-15217, September.
  64. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
  65. Mundra, Sruti & Bicchal, Motilal, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and financial accelerator: Evidence from India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
  66. Tuzcuoglu, Kerem, 2024. "Nonlinear transmission of international financial stress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  67. Joerg Schmidt, 2019. "Risk, Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy Transmission in Europe: Evidence from a Threshold-VAR approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201928, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  68. Huang, Yu-Fan & Liao, Wenting & Wang, Taining, 2024. "Does US financial uncertainty spill over through the (asymmetric) international credit channel? The role of market expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  69. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  70. Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  71. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/27od5pb99881folvtfs8s3k16l is not listed on IDEAS
  72. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  73. Alahverdi, Atefe & Daei-Karimzadeh, Saeed & Ghobadi, Sara, 2023. "Forecasting the Trend of Macroeconomic Variables in Terms of Financial Conditions Index in Iran: TVP-FAVAR Approach (in Persian)," The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه), Institute for Management and Planning studies, vol. 28(3), pages 161-185, December.
  74. Boris B. Demeshev & Oxana A. Malakhovskaya, 2015. "Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR," HSE Working papers WP BRP 105/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  75. Hahn, Elke, 2020. "The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter?," Working Paper Series 2485, European Central Bank.
  76. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
  77. Schmidt, Jörg, 2020. "Risk, asset pricing and monetary policy transmission in Europe: Evidence from a threshold-VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  78. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20141803 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  80. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)," Technical Reports 123, Bank of Canada.
  81. Martin Harding & Rafael Wouters, 2022. "Risk and State-Dependent Financial Frictions," Staff Working Papers 22-37, Bank of Canada.
  82. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2021. "Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt Models:exploring the predictive power of central bank communication," Working Papers Series 559, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  83. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Doğuhan Sündal, 2022. "Business cycles, financial conditions, and nonlinearities," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 343-383, May.
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