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Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. He, Wenjia & He, Wenjing & Xu, Dandan & Yue, Pengpeng, 2023. "Economic volatility, banks’ risk accumulation and systemic risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  2. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
  3. Viswanathan Nagarajan & Prateek Sharma, 2021. "Firm internationalization and long‐term impact of the Covid‐19 pandemic," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1477-1491, September.
  4. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  5. Liu, Wei & Garrett, Ian, 2023. "Regime-dependent effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on realized volatility in the U.S. stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  6. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Richter, Björn & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The shifts and the shocks: bank risk, leverage, and the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2672, European Central Bank.
  7. Doeswijk, Ronald & Swinkels, Laurens, 2026. "The risk and reward of investing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  8. Youtao Xiang & Sumuya Borjigin, 2024. "High–low volatility spillover network between economic policy uncertainty and commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(8), pages 1295-1319, August.
  9. Michal Franta, 2025. "The application of multiple-output quantile regression to the US financial cycle," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 696-714, July.
  10. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & Mukherjee, Abhishek & Ryan, Michael, 2025. "Global perspectives on open banking: Regulatory impacts and market response," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
  11. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  12. Piotr Bańbuła & Marcin Pietrzak, 2021. "Early Warning Models of Banking Crises: VIX and High Profits," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(4), pages 381-403, December.
  13. Moretto, Michele & Parigi, Bruno M., 2024. "Competitive runs on Government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 131-158.
  14. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2020. "Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
  15. Daníelsson, Jón & Macrae, Robert & Uthemann, Andreas, 2022. "Artificial intelligence and systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  16. Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Shabeer Khan & Ghulam Abbas & Mohammed Alhashim, 2023. "Novel COVID-19 Outbreak and Global Uncertainty in the Top-10 Affected Countries: Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
  17. David le Bris, 2018. "What is a market crash?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(2), pages 480-505, May.
  18. Li, Rui & Li, Jianping & Zhu, Xiaoqian, 2025. "Downside belief disagreements and financial instability: Evidence from risk factor disclosures in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  19. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  20. Andrews, Antony & Kumar, Nikeel Nishkar, 2024. "Decoding financial performance of US-listed entities: A sectoral exploration of input efficiency amid stochastic volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  21. Atanasov, Victoria, 2021. "Unemployment and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  22. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2019. "Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973–2014," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  23. Alessi, Lucia & Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Savona, Roberto, 2019. "Anatomy of a Sovereign Debt Crisis: CDS Spreads and Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2019-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
  24. Bouteska, A. & Ha, Le Thanh & Hassan, M. Kabir & Safa, M. Faisal, 2024. "Riding the waves of investor sentiment: Cryptocurrency price and renewable energy volatility during the pandemic-war era," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
  25. Li, Leon & Miu, Peter, 2023. "Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for stock investors? A regime-switching approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 367-385.
  26. Christian Kubitza, 2021. "Tackling the Volatility Paradox: Spillover Persistence and Systemic Risk," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 079, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  27. Danielsson, Jon & Macrae, Robert & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P. & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2016. "Why macropru can end up being procyclical," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 70711, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  28. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  29. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2024. "Financial market connectedness between the U.S. and China: A new perspective based on non-linear causality networks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  30. Mahir Binici & Aytül Ganioglu, 2021. "Net external position, financial development, and banking crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1225-1251, September.
  31. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Macroprudential Policy?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 735-770, October.
  32. B. De Backer, 2018. "Does financial market volatility influence the real economy?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 107-124, december.
  33. Athanasios Triantafyllou & George Dotsis & Alexandros Sarris, 2020. "Assessing the Vulnerability to Price Spikes in Agricultural Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 631-651, September.
  34. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Joëlle Miffre, 2023. "The Negative Pricing of the May 2020 WTI Contract," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(1), pages 119-142, January.
  35. Goswami, Samrat & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Historical volatility of advanced equity markets: The role of local and global crises," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
  36. C. Bora Durdu & Alex Martin & Ilknur Zer, 2020. "The Role of US Monetary Policy in Banking Crises Across the World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 66-107, March.
  37. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2022. "Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 152-168, January.
  38. Altınkeski, Buket Kırcı & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2022. "Financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  39. Scott A. Brave & Jose A. Lopez, 2019. "Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 1-59, March.
  40. Paola Leone & Pasqualina Porretta & Luca Riccetti, 2021. "European Significant Bank Stock Market Volatility: Is there a Bail-In Effect?," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(5), pages 1-32, July.
  41. Yuriy Bilan & Maryna Brychko & Anna Buriak & Tetyana Vasilyeva, 2019. "Financial, business and trust cycles: the issues of synchronization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 113-138.
  42. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
  43. Venelina Nikolova & Juan E. Trinidad Segovia & Manuel Fernández-Martínez & Miguel Angel Sánchez-Granero, 2020. "A Novel Methodology to Calculate the Probability of Volatility Clusters in Financial Series: An Application to Cryptocurrency Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-15, July.
  44. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  45. Japan Huynh & Thi Minh Hue Phan, 2024. "Uncertainty and bank risk in an emerging market: The moderating role of business models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(2), pages 1-22, February.
  46. Christian Conrad & Robert F. Engle, 2025. "Modelling Volatility Cycles: The MF2‐GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 438-454, June.
  47. Chen, Rongda & Bao, Weiwei & Jin, Chenglu, 2021. "Investor sentiment and predictability for volatility on energy futures Markets: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 112-129.
  48. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Kijkasiwat, Ploypailin & Arunachalam, Murugesh & Hammami, Helmi, 2021. "Covid-19 health policy intervention and volatility of Asian capital markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
  49. Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Maheepala, M.M.J.D., 2022. "Conventional monetary policy, COVID-19, and stock markets in emerging economies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  50. Jose A Lopez & Kris James Mitchener, 2021. "Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I [Modeling and forecasting realized volatility]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 450-475.
  51. Zahra, Shaker A., 2021. "International entrepreneurship in the post Covid world," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(1).
  52. Huynh, Nhan, 2023. "Unemployment beta and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  53. Zhou, Dong-hai & Liu, Xiao-xing, 2023. "Do world stock markets “jump” together? A measure of high-frequency volatility risk spillover networks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  54. Gram, Dennis & Karapanagiotis, Pantelis & Krzyzanowski, Jan & Liebald, Marius & Walz, Uwe, 2021. "An extensible model for historical financial data with an application to German company and stock market data," SAFE Working Paper Series 300, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  55. Zhiyong Zheng & Jian He & Yingjie Yang & Mengting Zhang & Desheng Wu & Yang Bian & Jianhong Cao, 2023. "Does financial leverage volatility induce systemic financial risk? Empirical insight based on the Chinese fintech sector," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 1142-1161, March.
  56. Wu, Ji & Li, Huimin & Zheng, Dazhi & Liu, Xiaoyan, 2021. "Economic uncertainty or financial uncertainty? An empirical analysis of bank risk-taking in Asian emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  57. Lee, Seung Jung & Posenau, Kelly E. & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2020. "The anatomy of financial vulnerabilities and banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  58. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "What drives stock returns across countries? Insights from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  59. Bastidon, Cécile & Jawadi, Fredj, 2024. "Trade fragmentation and volatility-of-volatility networks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  60. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Uncertainty before and during COVID‐19: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 821-864, July.
  61. Lepers, Etienne & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2020. "Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  62. Maria Elvira Mancino & Simona Sanfelici, 2020. "Identifying financial instability conditions using high frequency data," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 221-242, January.
  63. Bora Durdu & Alex Martin & Ilknur Zer, 2019. "The Role of U.S. Monetary Policy in Global Banking Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  64. Felipe de Oliveira & Sinézio Fernandes Maia, 2017. "Volatility Forecasting before the Subprime Crisis," EcoMod2017 10376, EcoMod.
  65. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2023. "The Impact of Risk Cycles on Business Cycles: A Historical View," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(7), pages 2922-2961.
  66. Basak, Deepal & Murray, Alexander & Zhao, Yunhui, 2017. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for More Stringent Regulation?," MPRA Paper 81373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  67. Kiwoong Byun & Baeho Kim & Dong Hwan Oh, 2025. "Systemic Credit Risk Premium: Insights From Credit Derivatives Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(9), pages 1448-1465, September.
  68. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
  69. Beirne, John & Sugandi, Eric, 2023. "Risk-off shocks and spillovers in safe havens," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  70. Lan, YiJia, 2024. "Does Fintech development affect capital misallocation: A non-linear and spatial spillover perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  71. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Ngobese, Sibusiso Blessing & Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass, 2020. "An empirical analysis of systemic and macroeconomic risk in South Africa: an application of the quantile regression," MPRA Paper 101493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  72. Iori, G. & Gurgone, A., 2019. "A multi-agent methodology to assess the effectiveness of alternative systemic risk adjusted capital requirements," Working Papers 19/05, Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London.
  73. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Misery on Main Street, victory on Wall Street: Economic discomfort and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  74. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  75. Si-Yao Wei & Kun-Liang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Uncertainty and financial market resilience: Evidence from China," Papers 2409.18422, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
  76. Jean-Paul Laurent & Hassan Omidi Firouzi, 2022. "Market Risk and Volatility Weighted Historical Simulation After Basel III," Working Papers hal-03679434, HAL.
  77. Zhou, Dong-hai & Liu, Xiao-xing, 2024. "Does systemic risk in the fund markets predict future economic downturns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  78. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2022. "Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  79. Fernandez-Gallardo, Alvaro, 2023. "Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  80. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and systemic-risk indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  81. Kirti, Divya, 2025. "Lending standards and output growth," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  82. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: Extracting what has been left," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  83. Zaimovic Azra & Arnaut-Berilo Almira & Bešlija Rijad, 2024. "International Portfolio Diversification Benefits: An Empirical Investigation of the 28 European Stock Markets During the Period 2014–2024," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 96-112.
  84. Mariya Paskaleva & Ani Stoykova, 2021. "The Influence of Uncertainty on Market Efficiency: Evidence from Selected European Financial Markets," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 175-198.
  85. Esti Kemp & Rene van Stralen & Alexandros Vardoulakis & Peter J. Wierts, 2018. "The Non-Bank Credit Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-076, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  86. Xianfei Hui & Baiqing Sun & Indranil SenGupta & Yan Zhou & Hui Jiang, 2022. "Stochastic volatility modeling of high-frequency CSI 300 index and dynamic jump prediction driven by machine learning," Papers 2204.02891, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
  87. Mary Chen & Matthew DeHaven & Isabel Kitschelt & Seung Jung Lee & Martin Sicilian, 2023. "Identifying Financial Crises Using Machine Learning on Textual Data," International Finance Discussion Papers 1374, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  88. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2021. "Does economic uncertainty affect the soundness of banks? Evidence from emerging Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  89. Gross, Marco, 2022. "Beautiful cycles: A theory and a model implying a curious role for interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  90. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: extracting what has been left," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108198, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  91. Fang, Yi & Wang, Yanru & Wang, Qi & Zhao, Yang, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A perspective of risk decomposition," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  92. Danielsson, Jon & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2020. "Financial volatility and economic growth, 1870-2016," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118886, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  93. de Haan, Jakob & Fang, Yi & Jing, Zhongbo, 2020. "Does the risk on banks’ balance sheets predict banking crises? New evidence for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 254-268.
  94. Uddin, Moshfique & Chowdhury, Anup & Anderson, Keith & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2021. "The effect of COVID – 19 pandemic on global stock market volatility: Can economic strength help to manage the uncertainty?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 31-44.
  95. Deepal Basak & Mr. Yunhui Zhao, 2018. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation?," IMF Working Papers 2018/123, International Monetary Fund.
  96. Kapar, Burcu & Buigut, Steven & Billah, Syed Mabruk, 2025. "The short-term reaction of financial markets to the U.S. trade tariff announcement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
  97. Baltussen, Guido & Swinkels, Laurens & Van Vliet, Pim, 2021. "Global factor premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1128-1154.
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