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Citations for "Calling Recessions in Real Time"

by James D. Hamilton

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  1. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
  2. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Wildi, Marc, 2010. "Real-Time Signal Extraction: a Shift of Perspective/Extracción de señal en tiempo real: un cambio de perspectiva," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 497-518, Diciembre.
  5. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  6. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2012. "Forecasting national recessions using state level data," Working Papers 2012-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," NIPE Working Papers 21/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  10. Hilde C. Bjornland & Francesco Ravazzolo & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different," CAMA Working Papers 2016-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Stekler, Herman & Symington, Hilary, 2016. "Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 559-570.
  12. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 2013-05, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
  13. Schreiber, Sven, 2013. "Forecasting business-cycle turning points with (relatively large) linear systems in real time," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79709, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  14. Pierre Guérin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "Markov-Switching MIDAS Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 45-56, January.
  15. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
  16. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," Cahiers de recherche 1341, CIRPEE.
  17. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," Working Paper 2012/04, Norges Bank.
  18. Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2015. "Change Detection and the Casual Impact of the Yield Curve," NCER Working Paper Series 107, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  19. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," CEPR Discussion Papers 8866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. L. Ferrara., 2011. "Forecasting the business cycle. Summary of the 8th International Institute of Forecasters workshop hosted by the Banque de France on 1-2 December 2011 in Paris," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 24, pages 135-144, Winter.
  21. Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis," IMK Working Paper 98-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  22. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2014. "Estimating turning points using large data sets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 368-381.
  23. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 59361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Paul Viefers, 2011. "Bayesian Inference for the Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1172, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  25. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2015. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand’s Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 4688, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  27. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8 Bank for International Settlements.
  28. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  29. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
  30. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
  32. Canova, Fabio & Schlaepfer, Alan, 2014. "Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Schreiber, Sven, 2014. "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Discussion Papers 2014/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  34. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Extracting non-linear signals from several economic indicators," Working Papers 1202, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  35. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  36. Turgut Kisinbay & Chikako Baba, 2011. "Predicting Recessions; A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations," IMF Working Papers 11/235, International Monetary Fund.
  37. Jorge Mario Uribe & Inés María Ulloa & Johanna Perea, 2015. "Reference financial cycle in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 83, pages 33-62, Julio - D.
  38. repec:syb:wpbsba:05/2013 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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