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How Do Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices?

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  2. Li, Jinchao & Guo, Yuwei, 2025. "A hybrid model based on iTransformer for risk warning of crude oil price fluctuations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
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  5. Liu, Ling & Shahrour, Mohamad H. & Wojewodzki, Michal & Rohani, Alireza, 2025. "Decoding energy market turbulence: A TVP-VAR connectedness analysis of climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk shocks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  6. Ijaz, Muhammad Shahzad & Ali, Shoaib & Du, Anna Min & Khurram, Mahrukh, 2025. "Analyzing financial market reactions to the Palestine-Israel conflict: An event study perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  7. Zhang, Xiuqi & Meng, Xiangyu & Su, Chi Wei, 2024. "The security of energy import: Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk really matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 377-388.
  8. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock prices," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  9. Cai, Yifei & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2025. "US partisan conflict, Sino-US political relation news, and oil market dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  10. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  11. PAPAINOG, Maria-Teodora, 2026. "The Impact Of Geopolitical Crises On Fiscal And Budgetary Stability," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 30(1), pages 110-124, March.
  12. António Afonso & Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners (1960-2022)," Working Papers hal-04330751, HAL.
  13. Vo, Duc Hong & Ho, Chi Minh & Lang, Ngoc Duc, 2025. "Greener for greater security? The role of green finance in energy security amid rising geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  14. Nepal, Rabindra & Deng, Youyi & Dong, Kangyin, 2025. "Going with the flow: How does global energy value chain adapt to geopolitical risks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  15. Delis, Panagiotis & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2025. "Navigating crude oil volatility forecasts: Assessing the contribution of geopolitical risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  16. Salachas, Evangelos & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2025. "Understanding central bank responses to geopolitical risks: Evidence from the Fed and ECB," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  17. Le Thanh Ha, 2025. "Assessing Dynamic Relationships Between Geopolitical Risks and Energy‐Related Uncertainty: New Perspectives From the R2 Decomposed Linkage Method," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2025(1).
  18. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2026. "Uncertainty shocks and inflation: The role of credibility and expectation anchoring," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  19. Opoku, Eric Evans Osei & Acheampong, Alex O. & Frempong, Josephine, 2025. "Geopolitical risks, financial system and the energy trilemma," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  20. Deng, Youyi & Jiang, Hong-Dian, 2025. "Are geopolitical risks reshaping the global energy trade networks? A global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  21. Muhammad, Sulaman & Hoffmann, Christin & Müsgens, Felix, 2025. "Assessing energy security risks: Implications for household electricity prices in the EU," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
  22. Langfeng Zhou, 2025. "Propagation of Geopolitical Risks to the Federal Reserve's Policy Toolkit," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 44(1), pages 15-48, March.
  23. Afonso, António & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “Doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  24. De Nicolò, Michele & Fraccascia, Luca & Pontrandolfo, Pierpaolo, 2024. "How the energy procurement switching strategies (driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict) impact the global sustainability? The global sustainability dashboard," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
  25. Selin Karlilar Pata & Ugur Korkut Pata, 2025. "Comparing How Energy Policy Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, and R&D Investment Shapes Renewable Energy and Fossil Fuels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-16, August.
  26. Nguyen, Huan Huu & Nguyen, Duc Huu & Nguyen, Tam Ha Minh & Chen, Xihui Haviour, 2026. "Geopolitical fragmentation and energy transition inequalities: Climate policy uncertainty, sanctions, and the oil and gas sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  27. William Ginn & Jamel Saadaou, 2024. "Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks: Some Nonlinear Evidence," Working Papers of BETA 2024-16, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  28. William Ginn & Jamel Saadaoui, 2024. "Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks: Some Nonlinear Evidence," Working Papers 2024.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  29. Tiwari, Rahul & Mallick, Nirupama, 2025. "Process optimisation and scale-up of biocrude oil production through catalytic hydrothermal liquefaction utilising Chlorella minutissima biomass," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
  30. Nair Amal & Tripathi Sabyasachi, 2026. "Geopolitical Instability and its Ripple Effects on Service Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 41(1), pages 41-69, March.
  31. Zhang, Heting & Tian, Lin, 2025. "Risk hedging: How geopolitical risks affect enterprises' overseas merger and acquisition?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  32. Umar Farooq & Jun Wen & Salem Hamad Aldawsari & Mosab I. Tabash & Khurshid Khudoykulov, 2025. "How does oil policy uncertainty influence resource rents? New empirical evidence from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 146-168, March.
  33. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "US-China Tensions, US Partisan Conflict and Global Oil Prices: Scapegoating or Following the Flag or both?," MPRA Paper 124152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Rao, Amar & Lucey, Brian & Kumar, Satish, 2025. "Temporal dynamics of geopolitical risk: An empirical study on energy commodity interest-adjusted spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  35. Yap, Wei Yim & Yang, Dong, 2024. "Geopolitical tension and shipping network disruption: Analysis of the Red Sea crisis on container port calls," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  36. Fayc{c}al Djebari & Kahina Mehidi & Khelifa Mazouz & Philipp Otto, 2025. "Forecasting Oil Volatility through Network Models with GARCH-Informed Correlation Weights," Papers 2507.15046, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
  37. Zhu, Zhimeng & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Alharbi, Samar S. & Zhao, Shikuan, 2025. "Global energy transition under geopolitical risks: An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  38. Guo, Xiaozhu & Hong, Yanran & Yao, Shibin & Hao, Yixue, 2025. "Oil supply and U.S.-China tensions: A multinational perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
  39. Elbahnasawy, Nasr G. & Sweidan, Osama D., 2026. "Do political parties shape global risk? Evidence from United States presidential leadership and geopolitical volatility," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
  40. Giovanni Carnazza & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2024. "Political instability and international trade in the European Union: A network-based approach," Discussion Papers 2024/319, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  41. Cai, Yifei & Li, Xiangdong & Zhang, Yahua, 2024. "Oil market responses to Sino–European political relation shock: Insights after China's world trade organization accession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  42. Saadaoui, Jamel & Smyth, Russell & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2025. "Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  43. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "Geopolitical Turning Points and Oil Price Responses: An IV-LP Approach," MPRA Paper 125586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Choi, Sangyup & Havel, Jiri, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and U.S. foreign portfolio investment: A tale of advanced and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  45. Emna Trabelsi, 2025. "Monetary Policy Transmission Under Global Versus Local Geopolitical Risk: Exploring Time-Varying Granger Causality, Frequency Domain, and Nonlinear Territory in Tunisia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-68, June.
  46. SHANG, Yunfeng & XIA, Zhongwei & XIAO, Zhongyi & SHUM, Wai Yan, 2024. "An analysis of the time-lag effect of global geopolitical risk on business cycle based on visibility graph technique," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
  47. Hong, Yanran & Guo, Xiaozhu & Zhao, Chunlan, 2025. "New paths of the time-varying Granger-causality test under extreme shocks: An analysis of geopolitical risk and crude oil markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PB).
  48. Chen, Chen & Hussain, Khadim & Hussain, Shakir, 2026. "From trade wars to energy markets: An examination of how US-China tensions reshape the US energy market using a Wavelet quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 209(PA).
  49. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Abdullah, Mohammad & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and energy market tail risk forecasting: An explainable machine learning approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  50. Kotsompolis, Giorgos & Prelorentzos, Arsenios-Georgios N. & Xidonas, Panos & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2025. "European financial markets, energy returns and geopolitical risk: A frequency domain spectral analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  51. Saadaoui, Jamel & Smyth, Russell & Vespignani, Joaquin & Wang, Yitian, 2025. "Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and the Limits of Friend-Shoring," Working Papers 2025-07, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  52. Jin Shang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2024. "The response of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries’ macroeconomic aggregates to crude oil price shocks: some international evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 933-980, December.
  53. Gao, Jie & Fan, Chunguo & Xu, Liang & Chen, Hongni & Chen, Hangyu & Liang, Zhilei, 2025. "Intelligent decision making and risk management in stock index futures markets under the influence of global geopolitical volatility," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  54. Wang, Shuang & Wang, Yan & Li, Jing, 2025. "Impact of geopolitical risks on crude oil security: A copula-based assessment framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
  55. Mengxi He & Daxiang Jin & Yaojie Zhang, 2026. "The Role of Lead-lag Effect in Predicting Crude Oil Futures Volatility: Empirical Evidence from China," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 67(6), pages 5115-5137, June.
  56. Zhuo, Xingxuan & Ye, Jianjiang & Liu, Han & Lin, Feng, 2025. "Analyzing dynamics of crude oil price amid sudden events and intervention measures: Insights from a Prophet-QR model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PB).
  57. Pooja Kumari & Amit Shankar & Rsha Alghafes & Laura Broccardo & Steven T. Walsh, 2025. "Exploring the Interrelationship Between Energy, Geopolitical Risk, and Bitcoin Based Green Business Strategies," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(6), pages 6654-6669, September.
  58. Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Qiu, Mei & Nguyen, Hannah, 2026. "The global geopolitical-energy uncertainty index and total factor productivity: New evidence from firm-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
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