IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vls/finstu/v30y2026i1p110-124.html

The Impact Of Geopolitical Crises On Fiscal And Budgetary Stability

Author

Listed:
  • PAPAINOG, Maria-Teodora

    (Doctoral School of International Business and Economics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between geopolitical risk and fiscal-budgetary stability of countries, focusing on how external instability impacts the dynamics of the budget deficit. Using a dynamic System GMM (Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond) model on a panel dataset of 25 OECD member countries. The empirical results indicate three fundamental aspects: (i) the existence of significant fiscal inertia, through the positive influence of the lagged value of the deficit on the current one; (ii) a negative relationship between geopolitical risk and the current level of the budget deficit, which suggests a tendency for governments to implement more prudent fiscal policies in times of international uncertainty; and (iii) political stability is found to be a factor favourable to fiscal balance, especially in developed countries, where a predictable political climate and solid institutions allow the formulation and implementation of consistent fiscal policies. Thus, this underlines the importance of a stable policy framework as a foundation for fiscal sustainability, especially in the face of external shocks or high fiscal pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • PAPAINOG, Maria-Teodora, 2026. "The Impact Of Geopolitical Crises On Fiscal And Budgetary Stability," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 30(1), pages 110-124, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:30:y:2026:i:1:p:110-124
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.65672/fs.2026.1.6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.icfm.ro/RePEc/vls/vls_pdf/vol30i1p110-124.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.65672/fs.2026.1.6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Lehkonen, Heikki & Heimonen, Kari, 2015. "Democracy, political risks and stock market performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 77-99.
    3. Jomthanachai, Suriyan & Wong, Wai-Peng & Soh, Keng-Lin & Lim, Chee-Peng, 2022. "A global trade supply chain vulnerability in COVID-19 pandemic: An assessment metric of risk and resilience-based efficiency of CoDEA method," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Demir, Ender & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk, 2021. "The impact of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on bank credit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Caldara, Dario & Conlisk, Sarah & Iacoviello, Matteo & Penn, Maddie, 2026. "Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Miaozhi Yu & Na Wang, 2023. "The Influence of Geopolitical Risk on International Direct Investment and Its Countermeasures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, January.
    8. Dieckelmann, Daniel & Kaufmann, Christoph & Larkou, Chloe & McQuade, Peter & Negri, Caterina & Pancaro, Cosimo & Rößler, Denise, 2024. "Turbulent times: geopolitical risk and its impact on euro area financial stability," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    9. Francisco Alcalá & Antonio Ciccone, 2004. "Trade and Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(2), pages 613-646.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Faroque Ahmed & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "Spillover effects of separated oil price shocks on regional financial stress amidst Russia–Ukraine and global geopolitical tensions: a novel GVAR approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(3), pages 593-639, September.
    2. SHANG, Yunfeng & XIA, Zhongwei & XIAO, Zhongyi & SHUM, Wai Yan, 2024. "An analysis of the time-lag effect of global geopolitical risk on business cycle based on visibility graph technique," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Nair Amal & Tripathi Sabyasachi, 2026. "Geopolitical Instability and its Ripple Effects on Service Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 41(1), pages 41-69, March.
    4. Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Kang, Nayeon & Lewis, Vivien & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2026. "Geopolitical Risk in the Euro Area: Measurement and Transmission," CEPR Discussion Papers 21409, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Gabbiadini, Mirko & Meoli, Michele & Vismara, Silvio, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and systemic risk in the European banking system," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PF).
    6. Jia, Lijun & Xu, Ruoyu & Wu, Jian & Song, Malin & Chen, Xueli, 2023. "Impacts of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty on metal futures price volatility: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    7. Nepal, Rabindra & Deng, Youyi & Dong, Kangyin, 2025. "Going with the flow: How does global energy value chain adapt to geopolitical risks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    8. Opoku, Eric Evans Osei & Acheampong, Alex O. & Frempong, Josephine, 2025. "Geopolitical risks, financial system and the energy trilemma," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Emiel Sanders & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk, Cost of Equity, and Bank Lending: Evidence From the Ukrainian War," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 25/1122, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Giovanni Carnazza & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2024. "Political instability and international trade in the European Union: A network-based approach," Discussion Papers 2024/319, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Arbolino, R. & Boffardi, R. & De Simone, L. & Di Caro, P., 2025. "Geopolitical risks and the effectiveness of the EU funds: Heterogeneity in country impact," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 199-212.
    12. Badran, Moustapha & Awada, Mohamed & Darwiche, Joanna & Boungou, Whelsy, 2025. "How do geopolitical risks and uncertainty shape US consumer confidence?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    13. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2026. "International spillover effects of geopolitical risks on economic growth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Guo, Yu & Li, Jie & Liu, Fengyuan & Li, Jianjun, 2025. "Law enforcement quality and venture capital Efficiency: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. McQuade, Peter & Pancaro, Cosimo & Reghezza, Alessio & Avril, Pauline, 2025. "Geopolitical risk, bank lending and real effects on firms: evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Working Paper Series 3143, European Central Bank.
    16. William W. Chow, 2025. "Inflation cost of strategic goods export restriction: evidence from dynamic spatial panel data model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1-25, October.
    17. Abdullah Alsadan & Hassan Alalmaee & Chokri Zehri & Wissem Ajili Ben Youssef, 2025. "Global financial fragmentation under raised geopolitical risk," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1-32, July.
    18. Dieckelmann, Daniel & Larkou, Chloe & McQuade, Peter & Pancaro, Cosimo & Rößler, Denise, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and euro area bank CDS spreads and stock prices: Evidence from a new index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    19. Ahmed, Faroque & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Sohag, Kazi & Islam, Md. Monirul & Zeqiraj, Veton, 2024. "Global, local, or glocal? Unravelling the interplay of geopolitical risks and financial stress," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Adnen Ben Nasr & Juncal Cunado & Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Country Risk Ratings and Stock Market Returns in Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICS) Countries: A Nonlinear Dynamic Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-22, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:30:y:2026:i:1:p:110-124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniel Mateescu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfiarro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.