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Citations for "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model"

by Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte

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  1. Maik H. Wolters, 2015. "Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 74-96, 01.
  2. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2014. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Economics Working Papers 1416, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2015.
  3. Schorfheide, Frank & Sill, Keith & Kryshko, Maxym, 2010. "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 348-373, April.
  4. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.
  5. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 690, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  6. Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48723, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  7. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "DSGE model-based forecasting," Staff Reports 554, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Herbst, Edward & Schorfheide, Frank, 2012. "Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 152-166.
  9. Michael Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte & Rochelle Edge, 2009. "Investment Shocks and the Business Cycle: The View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE model," 2009 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Miguel Casares & Jesús Vázquez, 2011. "Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE models," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 1104, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  11. Pablo Burriel & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2009. "MEDEA: A DSGE Model for the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 2009-17, FEDEA.
  12. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Christoffel, Kai & Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
  14. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H, 2010. "The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2012. "The role of money and monetary policy in crisis periods: the Euro area case," ESSEC Working Papers WP1201, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School, revised 27 Feb 2012.
  16. Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 209-259.
  17. Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
  18. Jane Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane Sherlund & Jae Sim & Skander Van Den Heuvel, 2011. "Monetary policy and the global housing bubble," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 233-283, 04.
  19. Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015. "Forecasting using DSGE models with financial frictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-19.
  20. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," NBER Working Papers 14677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Marcin Kolasa & Michał Rubaszek & Paweł Skrzypczyński, 2012. "Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real‐Time Forecasting Test," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1301-1324, October.
  22. Kiley, Michael T., 2013. "Output gaps," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-18.
  23. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
  24. Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte & Rochelle M. Edge, 2008. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic," 2008 Meeting Papers 990, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  27. Alessi, Luci & Ghysels, Eric & Onorante, Luca & Peach, Richard & Potter, Simon M., 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Staff Reports 680, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  28. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 171-193, February.
  29. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Lee Ohanian, 2010. "The Spanish Crisis from a Global Perspective," Working Papers 2010-03, FEDEA.
  30. Hess Chung & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) model of the U.S. economy: 2010 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2007. "Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?," Working Papers 5, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  32. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  33. Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2011. "How useful are estimated DSGE model forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  34. Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongden & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "How good are out of sample forecasting Tests on DSGE models?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2014/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  35. Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States," Working Papers 2006/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  36. Adolfson, Malin & Andersson, Michael K. & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias & Vredin, Anders, 2005. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," Working Paper Series 188, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006.
  37. repec:hal:journl:hal-00672806 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2011. "Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods," CEPR Discussion Papers 8604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Fawcett, Nicholas & Koerber, Lena & Masolo, Riccardo & Waldron, Matthew, 2015. "Evaluating UK point and density forecasts from an estimated DSGE model: the role of off-model information over the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 538, Bank of England.
  40. Lorenzo Burlon & Simone Emiliozzi & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Medium-term forecasting of euro-area macroeconomic variables with DSGE and BVARX models," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 257, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  41. Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
  42. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Kisacikoglu, Burçin & Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-of-Sample than VAR Models?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9576, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Giacomini, Raffaella, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 10201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2009. "Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting," Staff Working Papers 09-35, Bank of Canada.
  45. Gupta, Abhishek, 2010. "A Forecasting Metric for Evaluating DSGE Models for Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 26718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
  47. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  48. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2013. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Data with a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers 201313, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  49. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  50. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
  51. Bratu Mihaela, 2013. "An Evaluation Of Usa Unemployment Rate Forecasts In Terms Of Accuracy And Bias. Empirical Methods To Improve The Forecasts Accuracy," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 170-180, February.
  52. Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Getting to Know the Global Economy Model and Its Philosophy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 213-242, June.
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