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Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments

  • Michael T. Kiley

Historical experience suggests an important role for some deviation from the most restricted form of rational expectations in inflation dynamics, but also shows that other aspects of sluggish price adjustment – such as nominal rigidities, are important; and the available indicators of inflation expectations show that imperfect information regarding central bank intentions has been one source of inertia in inflation expectations.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal Conference Series ; [Proceedings].

Volume (Year): 53 (2008)
Issue (Month): ()

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2008:n:53:x:8
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  10. Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 19, Society for Computational Economics.
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  12. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2008. "A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A Dsge Model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  14. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  15. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Rochelle Edge & Michael Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2005. "An estimated DSGE model of the US economy with an application to natural rate measures," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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  21. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Levin, Andrew & Swanson, Eric T, 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 5808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte & Rochelle M. Edge, 2008. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic," 2008 Meeting Papers 990, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  23. Laurence Ball, 1992. "Disinflation With Imperfect Credibility," NBER Working Papers 3983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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