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Anchoring bias in consensus forecasts and its effect on market prices

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Cited by:

  1. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 205-226.
  2. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till, 2016. "Are groups 'less behavioral'? The case of anchoring," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 188 [rev.], University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  3. Ericsson, Neil R., 2016. "Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
  4. Chang, Andrew C. & Hanson, Tyler J., 2016. "The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.
  5. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Anchoring Heuristic in Option Pricing," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 207677, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  6. Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Time-varying impact of monetary policy shocks on US stock returns: The role of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  7. Susan Godlonton & Manuel A Hernandez & Mike Murphy, 2018. "Anchoring Bias in Recall Data: Evidence from Central America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(2), pages 479-501.
  8. Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Information in Yield Spread Trades," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Doron Avramov & Guy Kaplanski & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2022. "Postfundamentals Price Drift in Capital Markets: A Regression Regularization Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7658-7681, October.
  10. Jinesh Jain & Nidhi Walia & Simarjeet Singh & Esha Jain, 2022. "Mapping the field of behavioural biases: a literature review using bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 823-855, September.
  11. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2020. "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Simon Kloker & Tim Straub & Christof Weinhardt, 2019. "Moderators for Partition Dependence in Prediction Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 723-756, August.
  13. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Mauro Gallegati, 2020. "Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment: a simulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 75-116, January.
  14. Yamamoto, Ryuichi & Hirata, Hideaki, 2013. "Strategy switching in the Japanese stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2010-2022.
  15. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  16. Chang, Eric C. & Luo, Yan & Ren, Jinjuan, 2013. "Cross-listing and pricing efficiency: The informational and anchoring role played by the reference price," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4449-4464.
  17. Anastasia Stepanova & Vladislav Savelyev & Malika Shaikhutdinova, 2018. "The Anchoring Effect in Mergers and Acquisitions: Evidence from an Emerging Market," HSE Working papers WP BRP 63/FE/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  18. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lesnevski, Pavel & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "Surprise in short interest," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  19. Liyun Zhou & Weinan Lin & Chunpeng Yang, 2024. "Investor trading behavior and asset prices: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1722-1744, April.
  20. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till E., 2015. "Anchoring in social context," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 29-39.
  21. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till, 2014. "Are groups 'less behavioral'? The case of anchoring," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 188, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  22. Leppin, Julian Sebstian, 2014. "The Relation Between Overreaction in Forecasts and Uncertainty: A Nonlinear Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100284, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  23. Amari Mouna & Jarboui Anis & David McMillan, 2015. "The factors forming investor’s failure: Is financial literacy a matter? Viewing test by cognitive mapping technique," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1057923-105, December.
  24. Hibiki Ichiue & Tomonori Yuyama, 2009. "Using Survey Data to Correct the Bias in Policy Expectations Extracted from Fed Funds Futures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1631-1647, December.
  25. Leppin, Julian Sebastian, 2014. "The relation between overreaction in forecasts and uncertainty: A nonlinear approachvon," HWWI Research Papers 158, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  26. Anolli, Mario & Beccalli, Elena & Molyneux, Philip, 2014. "Bank earnings forecasts, risk and the crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 309-335.
  27. Markus Spiwoks & Zulia Gubaydullina, 2020. "The Magic of Figures: Anchoring and Interferences," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 1-2.
  28. Lee, Eunju & Piqueira, Natalia, 2017. "Short selling around the 52-week and historical highs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 75-101.
  29. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Informed trading in foreign exchange futures: Payroll news timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  30. Bastian Schulz, 2023. "Behavioral Finance and how its Behavioral Biases Affect German Investors," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 17(1), pages 39-59.
  31. Li, Fengfei & Lin, Ji-Chai & Lin, Tse-Chun & Shang, Longfei, 2023. "Behavioral bias, distorted stock prices, and stock splits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  32. Bahník, Štěpán & Yoon, Sangsuk, 2023. "Anchoring effect in business," OSF Preprints 98qdv, Center for Open Science.
  33. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2014. "Anchoring Heuristic in Option Prices," MPRA Paper 66018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jul 2015.
  34. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Explaining the Smile in Currency Options: Is it Anchoring?," MPRA Paper 63528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Gatti, Roberta & Lederman, Daniel & Islam, Asif M. & Nguyen, Ha & Lotfi, Rana & Emam Mousa, Mennatallah, 2024. "Data transparency and GDP growth forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  36. John B. Broughton & Bento J. Lobo, 2018. "Herding and anchoring in macroeconomic forecasts: the case of the PMI," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1337-1355, November.
  37. Oesinghaus, Andreas, 2024. "Analysts’ extrapolative expectations in the cross-section," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  38. Félix, Luiz & Kräussl, Roman & Stork, Philip, 2018. "Predictable biases in macroeconomic forecasts and their impact across asset classes," CFS Working Paper Series 596, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  39. Dimitrios Papastamos & George Matysiak & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  40. Alfredo Pistelli M., 2012. "Análisis de Sesgos y Eficiencia en Proyecciones de Consensus Forecasts," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(1), pages 98-104, April.
  41. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta & Han Yu, 2022. "Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 169-191, March.
  42. Lukas Meub & Till Proeger, 2018. "Are groups ‘less behavioral’? The case of anchoring," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(2), pages 117-150, August.
  43. Luiz Félix & Roman Kräussl & Philip Stork, 2021. "Strategic bias and popularity effect in the prediction of economic surprises," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1095-1117, September.
  44. Qi Liu & Libin Tao & Weixing Wu & Jianfeng Yu, 2017. "Short- and Long-Run Business Conditions and Expected Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4137-4157, December.
  45. Kurov, Alexander & Sancetta, Alessio & Strasser, Georg & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2019. "Price Drift Before U.S. Macroeconomic News: Private Information about Public Announcements?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 449-479, February.
  46. James Giesecke & Chris Schilling, 2010. "The economic impact of the New Zealand fiscal stimulus package," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 231-257.
  47. Dungey, Mardi & McKenzie, Michael & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Empirical evidence on jumps in the term structure of the US Treasury Market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 430-445, June.
  48. Eric C. Chang & Tse-Chun Lin & Yan Luo & Jinjuan Ren, 2019. "Ex-Day Returns of Stock Distributions: An Anchoring Explanation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1076-1095, March.
  49. Hess, Dieter & Orbe, Sebastian, 2011. "Irrationality or efficiency of macroeconomic survey forecasts? Implications from the anchoring bias test," CFR Working Papers 11-13, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  50. Melquiades Pereira de Lima Júnior, 2017. "Learning, Portfolio Complexity and Informational Asymmetry in Forecasts of Sell-Side Analysts," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 14(2), pages 133-159, March.
  51. Teglio, Andrea & Catalano, Michele & Petrovic, Marko, 2014. "Myopic households on a stable path: the neoclassical growth model with rule-based expectations," MPRA Paper 120253, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Bizer, Kilian, 2013. "Anchoring: A valid explanation for biased forecasts when rational predictions are easily accessible and well incentivized?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 166, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  53. Agnieszka P. Markiewicz & Ralph C. Verhoeks & Willem F. C. Verschoor & Remco C. J. Zwinkels, 2023. "Inattentive Search for Currency Fundamentals," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(4), pages 907-952, December.
  54. Liao, Li-Chuan & Chou, Ray Yeutien & Chiu, Banghan, 2013. "Anchoring effect on foreign institutional investors’ momentum trading behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 72-91.
  55. Hammad, Siddiqi, 2015. "Index Option Returns from an Anchoring Perspective," MPRA Paper 65331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Tan, Enoch, 2016. "The role of analyst forecasts in the momentum effect," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 67-84.
  57. Wang, Zi-Mei & Lien, Donald, 2023. "Limited attention, salient anchor, and the modified MAX effect: Evidence from Taiwan’s stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  58. Ning Jia & Arun Rai & Sean Xin Xu, 2020. "Reducing Capital Market Anomaly: The Role of Information Technology Using an Information Uncertainty Lens," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 979-1001, February.
  59. Pereira Reichhardt, Joaquín & Iqbal, Tabassum, 2014. "Investment Decisions: Are we fully-Rational?," MPRA Paper 57686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  61. Taoufik Elkemali, 2023. "Uncertainty and Financial Analysts’ Optimism: A Comparison between High-Tech and Low-Tech European Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, January.
  62. Rybacki, Jakub, 2020. "Polish GDP Forecast Errors: A Tale of Ineffectiveness," MPRA Paper 98952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Jun Xie & Baohua Zhang & Bin Gao, 2023. "Market framing bias and cross-sectional stock returns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(8), pages 1-19, August.
  64. Mei‐Chen Lin, 2018. "The effect of 52 week highs and lows on analyst stock recommendations," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 375-422, November.
  65. repec:osf:osfxxx:98qdv_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  66. Po‐Chang Chen & Ganapathi S. Narayanamoorthy & Theodore Sougiannis & Hui Zhou, 2020. "Analyst underreaction and the post‐forecast revision drift," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1151-1181, October.
  67. Chen, Chen & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2024. "Short-term momentum and reversals, turnover, and a stock’s price-to-52-week-high ratio," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  68. Andre Tomfort & Paulina Wiegand, 2020. "Anchoring among German financial analysts: An empirical and background analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 12(5), pages 33-43.
  69. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till, 2014. "An experimental study on social anchoring," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 196, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  70. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  71. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2023. "Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 88-104, January.
  72. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till, 2016. "Can anchoring explain biased forecasts? Experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 1-13.
  73. SATISH KUMAR & Nisha Goyal, 2019. "Exploring Behavioural Biases among Indian Investors: A Qualitative Inquiry," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9010790, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
  74. Mehmet Eren Ahsen & Mehmet Ulvi Saygi Ayvaci & Srinivasan Raghunathan, 2019. "When Algorithmic Predictions Use Human-Generated Data: A Bias-Aware Classification Algorithm for Breast Cancer Diagnosis," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 97-116, March.
  75. Jakub Rybacki, 2021. "Polish GDP forecast errors: a tale of inefficiency," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 123-142.
  76. Tzu-Pu CHANG, Ray Yeutien CHOU & Ray Yeutien CHOU, 2018. "Anchoring Effect on Macroeconomic Forecasts : A Heterogeneity Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-147, December.
  77. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2023. "Macroeconomic Expectations and State-Dependent Factor Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 10720, CESifo.
  78. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Spread position as a leading economic indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
  79. Chen Gu & Alexander Kurov, 2018. "What drives informed trading before public releases? Evidence from natural gas inventory announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(9), pages 1079-1096, September.
  80. Suter, Manuel & Strahm, Noel & Bundeli, Till & Kaessner, Kaja & Cologna, Viktoria & Berger, Sebastian, 2024. "Framing effects in expert assessments of optimal GDP development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
  81. Winkler, Jens & Moser, Roger, 2016. "Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 63-76.
  82. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic in Option Pricing," MPRA Paper 68595, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  83. Juwon Jang & Eunju Lee, 2021. "Do record earnings affect market reactions to earnings news?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1259-1287, May.
  84. Godlonton, Susan & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Paz, Cynthia, 2021. "Can survey design reduce anchoring bias in recall data? Evidence from Malawi," IFPRI discussion papers 2055, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  85. Tahira Iram & Ahmad Raza Bilal & Zeshan Ahmad & Shahid Latif, 2023. "Does Financial Mindfulness Make a Difference? A Nexus of Financial Literacy and Behavioural Biases in Women Entrepreneurs," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 12(1), pages 7-21, January.
  86. David Ashton & Chau (Ruby) Trinh, 2018. "Evaluating the information content of earnings forecasts," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 674-699, September.
  87. Víctor Alberto Pena & Alina Gómez-Mejía, 2019. "Effect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 11(2), pages 389-409, November.
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