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The relation between overreaction in forecasts and uncertainty: A nonlinear approachvon

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  • Leppin, Julian Sebastian

Abstract

This paper examines if overreaction of oil price forecasters is related to uncertainty. Furthermore, it takes into account impacts from oil price return and oil price volatility on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model from González et al. (2005) is applied with different specifications of the transition functions to account for nonlinear relations. Data on oil price expectations for different time horizons are taken from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. The results show that forecast changes are governed by overreaction. However, overreaction is markedly reduced when high levels of uncertainty prevail. On the other hand, noisy signals and positive oil price returns tend to cause higher overreaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Leppin, Julian Sebastian, 2014. "The relation between overreaction in forecasts and uncertainty: A nonlinear approachvon," HWWI Research Papers 158, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:158
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overreaction; Uncertainty; Panel Smooth Transition Regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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