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What Is the Middle Income Trap, Why do Countries Fall into It, and How Can It Be Avoided?


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  1. Ali Cem Ozturk & Burcu Yavuz Tiftikcigil, 2020. "Study on the Presence of Middle Income Trap in E7 and Fragile Five Countries," International Journal of Business and Economic Affairs (IJBEA), Sana N. Maswadeh, vol. 5(3), pages 117-129.
  2. Huan Wang & Claire Cousineau & Bill Wang & Lucy Zeng & Andrew Sun & Ezra Kohrman & Nick Li & Esther Tok & Matthew Boswell & Scott Rozelle, 2022. "Exploring Teacher Job Satisfaction in Rural China: Prevalence and Correlates," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-13, March.
  3. Lim, King Yoong, 2019. "Industrial Transformation With Heterogeneous Labor And Foreign Experts," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3225-3266, December.
  4. Haroon Bhorat & Aalia Cassim & Alan Hirsch, 2014. "Policy Co-ordination and Growth Traps in a Middle-income Country Setting: The Case of South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-155, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. Scott Rozelle & Yiran Xia & Dimitris Friesen & Bronson Vanderjack & Nourya Cohen, 2020. "Moving Beyond Lewis: Employment and Wage Trends in China’s High- and Low-Skilled Industries and the Emergence of an Era of Polarization," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(4), pages 555-589, December.
  6. Andrés Zahler & Leonardo Iacovone & Aaditya Mattoo, 2014. "Trade and Innovation in Services: Evidence from a Developing Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7), pages 953-979, July.
  7. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B., 2021. "Convergence among themselves and Middle-income trap of South-East Asian Nations: Findings from a New approach," MPRA Paper 109372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Viral V. Acharya & Raghuram Rajan & Jack Shim, 2022. "Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth when Government is Myopic and Self-interested," NBER Working Papers 30296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Shahid Yusuf, 2017. "Middle-income countries: trapped or merely slowing?," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 31(2), pages 19-29, November.
  10. Janusz Heller & Rafal Warzala, 2018. "Is Poland in a middle income trap? A theoretical and empirical analysis," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17(4), pages 367-381, December.
  11. Linxiu Zhang & Hongmei Yi & Renfu Luo & Changfang Liu & Scott Rozelle, 2013. "The human capital roots of the middle income trap: the case of China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 151-162, November.
  12. Israel Marques II, 2017. "Political Connections and Non-Traditional Investment: Evidence from Public-Private Partnerships in Vocational Education," HSE Working papers WP BRP 56/PS/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  13. Pierre-Yves Hénin & Ahmet Insel, 2021. "Hungary's U-turn in Kornai's system paradigm perspective: a case for national authoritarian capitalism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 235-245, April.
  14. Li, Linjie & Liu, Xiaming & Yuan, Dong & Yu, Miaojie, 2017. "Does outward FDI generate higher productivity for emerging economy MNEs? – Micro-level evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 839-854.
  15. Michael Young & Terence Tsai & Xinran Wang & Shubo Liu & David Ahlstrom, 2014. "Strategy in emerging economies and the theory of the firm," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 331-354, June.
  16. Yao, Yang, 2014. "The Chinese Growth Miracle," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 7, pages 943-1031, Elsevier.
  17. Ron Boschma, 2021. "Global Value Chains from an Evolutionary Economic Geography perspective: a research agenda," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2134, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Nov 2021.
  18. Umit BULUT & Ahsen Seda BULUT, 2015. "The Role of Schooling in Struggling with the Middle-Income Trap: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 205-215, December.
  19. repec:rac:ecchap:2017-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Callum Wilkie, 2018. "Strategies of gain and strategies of waste: What determines the success of development intervention?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1826, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jul 2018.
  21. Mehmet Hanefi Topal, 2020. "The Middle Income Trap: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75.
  22. Lu, Ming & Zhang, Xi, 2019. "Towards an intelligent country: China’s higher education expansion and rural children’s senior high school participation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 1-1.
  23. Marques, Israel & Remington, Thomas & Bazavliuk, Vladimir, 2020. "Encouraging skill development: Evidence from public-private partnerships in education in Russia’s regions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  24. Claudio Loser & José Fajgenbaum, 2012. "A New Vision for Mexico 2042: Achieving Prosperity for All," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 155-195, May.
  25. Simona Iammarino & Andrés Rodriguez-Pose & Michael Storper, 2019. "Regional inequality in Europe: evidence, theory and policy implications," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 273-298.
  26. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Y. Aaron Szyf & Drew Arnold, 2012. "Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 91-153, May.
  27. David Bulman & Maya Eden & Ha Nguyen, 2017. "Transitioning from low-income growth to high-income growth: is there a middle-income trap?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 5-28, January.
  28. Bhorat, Haroon & Cassim, Aalia & Hirsch, Alan, 2014. "Policy co-ordination and growth traps in a middle-income country setting: The case of South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 155, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  29. González Laxe, Fernando & Armesto Pina, José Francisco & Sanchez-Fernandez, Patricio, 2023. "Galicia y las trampas del Desarrollo [Galicia and the "Development traps"]," MPRA Paper 116165, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2023.
  30. Sen, Kunal & Tyce, Matthew, 2019. "The elusive quest for high income status—Malaysia and Thailand in the post-crisis years," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 117-135.
  31. Polterovich, Victor, 2014. "Куда Идти: Двадцать Четыре Тезиса [Where to go: twenty four theses]," MPRA Paper 60068, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Siqi Zhang & Ruirui Dang & Ning Yang & Yu Bai & Lei Wang & Cody Abbey & Scott Rozelle, 2018. "Effect of Caregiver’s Mental Health on Early Childhood Development across Different Rural Communities in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-25, October.
  33. Viral V. Acharya & Raghuram G. Rajan & Jack B. Shim, 2020. "When is Debt Odious? A Theory of Repression and Growth Traps," Working Papers 2020-18, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  34. Bresser Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2019. "Models of the developmental state," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
  35. Andreas Diemer & Simona Iammarino & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Michael Storper, 2022. "The Regional Development Trap in Europe," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 98(5), pages 487-509, October.
  36. Nabeshima, Kaoru & Ito, Tadashi & Tanaka, Kiyoyasu & Kashcheeva, Mila & Bullon, David & Sanchez, Natalia, 2015. "The source of sustainable growth in Costa Rica," IDE Discussion Papers 500, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  37. Doraisami, Anita, 2015. "Has Malaysia really escaped the resource curse? A closer look at the political economy of oil revenue management and expenditures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 98-108.
  38. Caraballo-Cueto Jose & Lara Juan, 2017. "Deindustrialization and Unsustainable Debt in Middle-Income Countries: The Case of Puerto Rico," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-11, December.
  39. Otsuka, Keijiro & Higuchi, Yuki & Sonobe, Tetsushi, 2017. "Middle-income traps in East Asia: An inquiry into causes for slowdown in income growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(S), pages 3-16.
  40. Ron Boschma, 2021. "Designing Smart Specialization Policy: relatedness, unrelatedness, or what?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2128, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Sep 2021.
  41. Işık Özel, 2016. "From a ‘Rising Star’ to Fragile Market Trapped in Middle-Income: An Overview of the Turkish Economy," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(02), pages 05-11, August.
  42. Rybacki, Jakub & Kowalski, Arkadiusz Michał, 2018. "Moderate innovator trap – Does convergence of innovative potential occur?," MPRA Paper 90671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  43. Jungsuk Kim & Jungsoo Park, 2018. "The Role of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Middle-Income Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1264-1284, May.
  44. Zia Qureshi & Jose L. Diaz-Sanchez & Aristomene Varoudakis, 2015. "The Post-crisis Growth Slowdown in Emerging Economies and the Role of Structural Reforms," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 7(2), pages 179-200, May.
  45. Lei Wang & Conghong Yang & Dingjing Jiang & Siqi Zhang & Qi Jiang & Scott Rozelle, 2022. "Impact of Parental Beliefs on Child Developmental Outcomes: A Quasi-Experiment in Rural China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-16, June.
  46. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
  47. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
  48. World Bank, 2015. "Peru Building on Success," World Bank Publications - Reports 22984, The World Bank Group.
  49. Csontos, Tamás Tibor, 2023. "A magyar felzárkózási modell ágazati alapú, regionális és időbeli összehasonlító elemzése [Sectoral comparative analysis of the Hungarian catching-up model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 167-191.
  50. Jung-In Yeon & Jeong-Dong Lee & Chulwoo Baek, 2021. "A tale of two technological capabilities: economic growth revisited from a technological capability transition perspective," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 574-605, June.
  51. Aktoty Aitzhanova & Shigeo Katsu & Johannes F. Linn & Vladislav Yezhov (ed.), 2014. "Kazakhstan 2050: Toward a Modern Society for All," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number kazakh2050, May.
  52. Razafimandimby Andrianjaka, Riana & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "“What difference does it make (to be in the Middle Income Trap)?”: An empirical exploration of the drivers of growth slowdowns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 225-236.
  53. Szunomár, Ágnes, 2019. "A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában [The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1312-1346.
  54. Lei Wang & Mengjie Li & Cody Abbey & Scott Rozelle, 2018. "Human Capital and the Middle Income Trap: How Many of China's Youth are Going to High School?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 56(2), pages 82-103, June.
  55. UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa & Haroon Bhorat & Karmen Naidoo, "undated". "Drivers of Inequality in the Context of the Growth-Poverty-Inequality Nexus in Africa: Overview of key issues," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2017-04, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
  56. Zhang, Dongyang, 2019. "Can export tax rebate alleviate financial constraint to increase firm productivity? Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 529-540.
  57. Longfeng Ye & Peter E. Robertson, 2016. "On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 173-189, June.
  58. Wang, Lei & Liang, Wilson & Zhang, Siqi & Jonsson, Laura & Li, Mengjie & Yu, Cordelia & Sun, Yonglei & Ma, Qingrui & Bai, Yu & Abbey, Cody & Luo, Renfu & Yue, Ai & Rozelle, Scott, 2019. "Are infant/toddler developmental delays a problem across rural China?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 458-469.
  59. Richard Harrison & William Scheela & P. C. Lai & Sivapalan Vivekarajah, 2018. "Beyond institutional voids and the middle-income trap: The emerging business angel market in Malaysia," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 965-991, December.
  60. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar & Reynold Galope, 2017. "Middle-income transitions: trap or myth?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 429-453, July.
  61. Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein & Mohseni Cheraghlou, Amin & Sa'adat, Hossein, 2018. "Avoiding Middle-income Trap in Muslim Majority Countries: The Effect of Total Factor Productivity, Human Capital, and Age Dependency Ratio," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 5-21.
  62. Ferhan Gezici & Burçin Yazgı Walsh & Sinem Metin Kacar, 2017. "Regional and structural analysis of the manufacturing industry in Turkey," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(1), pages 209-230, July.
  63. Gill,Indermit S. & Kharas,Homi, 2015. "The middle-income trap turns ten," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7403, The World Bank.
  64. Joshi, Devin K. & Hughes, Barry B. & Sisk, Timothy D., 2015. "Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50years," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 286-302.
  65. Jimenez, Emmanuel & Nguyen, Vy & Patrinos, Harry Anthony, 2012. "Stuck in the middle ? human capital development and economic growth in Malaysia and Thailand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6283, The World Bank.
  66. Mesut Alper GEZER, 2018. "The relationship between financial deepening and economic growth: Bootstrap causality approach for the selected upper middle income countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 95-112, Spring.
  67. Theodore Ahlers & Hiroshi Kato & Harinder S. Kohli & Callisto Madavo & Anil Sood (ed.), 2014. "Africa 2050: Realizing the Continent's Full Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number africa2050, May.
  68. Vinko Muštra & Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose, 2021. "Challenges and policies for middle‐income trapped regions and cities," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 438-440, June.
  69. Fernando Gabriel Im & David Rosenblatt, 2015. "Middle-Income Traps: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-39.
  70. Polterovich, V., 2022. "Once again about where to go: Toward a development strategy in isolation from the West," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 238-244.
  71. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Natasha Mukherjee, 2011. "Potential Costs to Asia of the Middle Income Trap," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(3), pages 291-311, September.
  72. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat & Md. Kamruzzaman, 2019. "FINANCE FOR SDGs: Addressing Governance Challenge of Aid Utilisation in Bangladesh," CPD Working Paper 125, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
  73. Antonio Angelino, 2017. "Human capital shortages in the Vietnamese industry. A firm-level analysis," Working Papers 1701, c.MET-05 - Centro Interuniversitario di Economia Applicata alle Politiche per L'industria, lo Sviluppo locale e l'Internazionalizzazione.
  74. Nabeshima, Kaoru & Kang, Byeongwoo & Kashcheeva, Mila, 2016. "Descriptive analysis of the knowledge network formation in East Asia," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 66-100.
  75. Marques II, I., 2017. "Vocational Education and the Practice of Public-Private Partnerships in Russia's Regions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 198-207.
  76. Cristelli, Matthieu & Tacchella, Andrea & Zaccaria, Andrea & Pietronero, Luciano, 2014. "Growth scenarios for sub-Saharan countries in the framework of economic complexity," MPRA Paper 71594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  77. John M. Luiz, 2016. "The Political Economy of Middle-Income Traps: Is South Africa in a Long-Run Growth Trap? The Path to “Bounded Populism”," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 3-19, March.
  78. Bhorat, Haroon & Naidoo, Karmen, 2017. "Income Inequality Trends in sub-Saharan Africa: Divergence, determinants and consequences: Drivers of Inequality in the Context of the Growth-Poverty-Inequality Nexus in Africa: An overview of key iss," UNDP Africa Reports 267643, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
  79. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
  80. Pinheiro, Flávio L. & Hartmann, Dominik & Boschma, Ron & Hidalgo, César A., 2022. "The time and frequency of unrelated diversification," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
  81. Allaoui, Elhassen & Tidjani, Chemseddine & Lacheheb, Miloud, 2015. "“Middle Income Trap”; the position of Algerian economy: a comparative analysis overview," MPRA Paper 91745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2019.
  82. Matthew McCartney, 2016. "Costs, Capabilities, Conflict and Cash: The Problem of Technology and Sustainable Economic Growth in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(Special E), pages 65-98, September.
  83. Alfonso Arellano & Olga Gouveia & Sebastian Nieto-Parra & Jose Rene Orozco & Rebeca Peers, 2018. "Policy priorities to promote financial development in the context of Middle Income Trap," Working Papers 18/15, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  84. Ricks, Jacob I. & Doner, Richard F., 2021. "Getting institutions right: Matching institutional capacities to developmental tasks," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  85. Paus, Eva, 2014. "Latin America and the middle-income trap," Financiamiento para el Desarrollo 36816, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  86. Mihai COSTEA, 2016. "Consumption-Based Economy. The Case Of Romania In The Last Two Decades," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(Special I), pages 1-6.
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