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Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Harpaul Alberto Kohli

    (Centennial Group International and Emerging Markets Forum)

  • Y. Aaron Szyf

    (Centennial Group International and the Emerging Markets Forum)

  • Drew Arnold

    (Centennial Group International and Emerging Markets Forum)

Abstract

This article presents the construction and analysis of a long-run GDP growth model, including sample results, its sensitivity to parameter choices, and explanations of the concepts underpinning it. It is designed to be flexible so that scholars can use it with their own assumptions and parameter choices to customize results. The model estimates GDP as a function of labor force, capital stock, and total factor productivity (TFP) for 185 countries through 2050 under alternate scenarios. It provides rough estimates for real exchange rates, poverty indices, median incomes and percentiles, and the populations of the lower, middle, and upper income classes. The model also provides additional evidence for the TFP convergence phenomenon and the effect of the state failure on TFP growth. It can further be used to model the stocks, accessibility, and investment requirements for 10 infrastructure sectors. The model can yield counterfactual estimates and actual and roughly estimated comparable historical data for most of the projected series, provided in identical units. For 126 countries, such series (e.g., TFP) are provided back through 1956, and for some even earlier.

Suggested Citation

  • Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Y. Aaron Szyf & Drew Arnold, 2012. "Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 91-153, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:emf:journl:2012-gdpmodel
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rajag M. Nag & Johannes F. Linn & Harinder S. Kohli (ed.), 2016. "Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region's Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number centasia2050, August.
    2. Johannes F. Linn, 2014. "In 2012 the country’s leadership announced a vision that Kazakhstan would join the top 30 developed countries by 2050. This article reports on a study that assessed this vision and its feasibility; ex," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(3), pages 283-300, September.
    3. Harinder Kohli & Claudio Loser & Anil Sood (ed.), 2013. "Latin America 2040 — Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence — Second Edition," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 2, number latam2040v2, August.
    4. Theodore Ahlers & Hiroshi Kato & Harinder S. Kohli & Callisto Madavo & Anil Sood (ed.), 2014. "Africa 2050: Realizing the Continent's Full Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number africa2050, August.
    5. Anil Sood & Y. Aaron Szyf, 2011. "Productivity and Technology for Asia’s Growth," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(3), pages 313-334, September.

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