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Estimation of value-at-risk for energy commodities via fat-tailed GARCH models

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  1. Aquila, Giancarlo & Coelho, Eden de Oliveira Pinto & Bonatto, Benedito Donizeti & Pamplona, Edson de Oliveira & Nakamura, Wilson Toshiro, 2021. "Perspective of uncertainty and risk from the CVaR-LCOE approach: An analysis of the case of PV microgeneration in Minas Gerais, Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
  2. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
  3. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Modeling extreme risks in commodities and commodity currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-120.
  4. Chlebus Marcin, 2017. "EWS-GARCH: New Regime Switching Approach to Forecast Value-at-Risk," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 3(50), pages 01-25, December.
  5. Mei-Ling Tang & Trung K. Do, 2019. "In search of robust methods for multi-currency portfolio construction by value at risk," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(1), pages 107-126, March.
  6. Zi‐Yi Guo, 2020. "Stochastic multifactor models in risk management of energy futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(12), pages 1918-1934, December.
  7. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2011. "Forecasting petroleum futures markets volatility: The role of regimes and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 321-337, March.
  8. Ghorbel, Ahmed & Trabelsi, Abdelwahed, 2014. "Energy portfolio risk management using time-varying extreme value copula methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 470-485.
  9. Márcio Poletti Laurini & Roberto Baltieri Mauad & Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube, 2016. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility-Double Jump Model: an application for oil assets," Working Papers Series 415, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. Shen, Yiran & Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Guo, Kun, 2023. "Investor sentiment and the Chinese new energy stock market: A risk–return perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 395-408.
  11. Green, Rikard & Larsson, Karl & Lunina, Veronika & Nilsson, Birger, 2018. "Cross-commodity news transmission and volatility spillovers in the German energy markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 231-243.
  12. Lu-Tao Zhao & Li-Na Liu & Zi-Jie Wang & Ling-Yun He, 2019. "Forecasting Oil Price Volatility in the Era of Big Data: A Text Mining for VaR Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-20, July.
  13. Zolotko, Mikhail & Okhrin, Ostap, 2014. "Modelling the general dependence between commodity forward curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-296.
  14. Halkos, George & Tsirivis, Apostolos, 2019. "Using Value-at-Risk for effective energy portfolio risk management," MPRA Paper 91674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Şener, Emrah & Baronyan, Sayad & Ali Mengütürk, Levent, 2012. "Ranking the predictive performances of value-at-risk estimation methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 849-873.
  16. Bi, Jia & Zhu, Yifeng, 2020. "Value at risk, cross-sectional returns and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-18.
  17. Ren, Xiaohang & Lu, Zudi & Cheng, Cheng & Shi, Yukun & Shen, Jian, 2019. "On dynamic linkages of the state natural gas markets in the USA: Evidence from an empirical spatio-temporal network quantile analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 234-252.
  18. Chen, Liyuan & Zerilli, Paola & Baum, Christopher F., 2019. "Leverage effects and stochastic volatility in spot oil returns: A Bayesian approach with VaR and CVaR applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 111-129.
  19. Rabia Najaf & Khakan Najaf, 2016. "An empirical study on the dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and Nigera stock market," International Journal of Academic Research in Management and Business, International Journal of Academic Research in Management and Business, vol. 1(2), pages 63-76, September.
  20. Wei Kuang, 2022. "Oil tail-risk forecasts: from financial crisis to COVID-19," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 420-460, December.
  21. Aquila, Giancarlo & Rotela Junior, Paulo & de Oliveira Pamplona, Edson & de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo, 2017. "Wind power feasibility analysis under uncertainty in the Brazilian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 127-136.
  22. F. Lilla, 2017. "High Frequency vs. Daily Resolution: the Economic Value of Forecasting Volatility Models - 2nd ed," Working Papers wp1099, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  23. de Araújo, André da Silva & Garcia, Maria Teresa Medeiros, 2013. "Risk contagion in the north-western and southern European stock markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-34.
  24. Xianzi Yang & Chen Zhang & Yu Yang & Wenjun Wang & Zulfiqar Ali Wagan, 2022. "A new risk measurement method for China's carbon market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1280-1290, January.
  25. František Čech & Jozef Baruník, 2019. "Panel quantile regressions for estimating and predicting the value‐at‐risk of commodities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1167-1189, September.
  26. Zhou, Wei & Zhong, Guang-Yan & Li, Jiang-Cheng, 2022. "Stability of financial market driven by information delay and liquidity in delay agent-based model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
  27. Emrah ALTUN & Morad ALIZADEH & Gamze OZEL & Hüseyin TATLIDIL & Najmieh MAKSAYI, 2017. "Forecasting Value-At-Risk With Two-Step Method: Garch-Exponentiated Odd Log-Logistic Normal Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 97-115, December.
  28. Du, Limin & He, Yanan, 2015. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 455-465.
  29. Ding, Shusheng & Cui, Tianxiang & Zheng, Dandan & Du, Min, 2021. "The effects of commodity financialization on commodity market volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  30. Feng, Zhen-Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming & Wang, Kai, 2012. "Estimating risk for the carbon market via extreme value theory: An empirical analysis of the EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 97-108.
  31. He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung & Yen, Jerome, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-911, September.
  32. Alkathery, Mohammed A. & Chaudhuri, Kausik & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2022. "Implications of clean energy, oil and emissions pricing for the GCC energy sector stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  33. Marimoutou, Velayoudoum & Raggad, Bechir & Trabelsi, Abdelwahed, 2009. "Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk: Application to oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 519-530, July.
  34. Jamshed Y. Uppal & Syeda Rabab Mudakkar, 2014. "Mitigating Vulnerability to Oil Price Risk— Applicability of Risk Models to Pakistan’s Energy Problem," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 293-308.
  35. Westgaard, Sjur & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Negash, Ahlmahz & Botterud, Audun & Bogaard, Katinka & Verling, Trude Haugsvaer, 2021. "Performing price scenario analysis and stress testing using quantile regression: A case study of the Californian electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
  36. Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Topaloglou, Nikolas & Walther, Thomas, 2020. "Asset Classes and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from a Stochastic Spanning Approach," MPRA Paper 103870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
  38. Emenike, Kalu O., 2018. "Stock Market Volatility Clustering and Asymmetry in Africa: A Post Global Financial Crisis Evidence," MPRA Paper 91653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Mauad, Roberto Baltieri & Aiube, Fernando Antônio Lucena, 2020. "The impact of co-jumps in the oil sector," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  40. Lyu, Yongjian & Wang, Peng & Wei, Yu & Ke, Rui, 2017. "Forecasting the VaR of crude oil market: Do alternative distributions help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 523-534.
  41. Marco Bee & Fabrizio Miorelli, 2010. "Dynamic VaR models and the Peaks over Threshold method for market risk measurement: an empirical investigation during a financial crisis," Department of Economics Working Papers 1009, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  42. Li, Jiang-Cheng & Tao, Chen & Li, Hai-Feng, 2022. "Dynamic forecasting performance and liquidity evaluation of financial market by Econophysics and Bayesian methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
  43. Laporta, Alessandro G. & Merlo, Luca & Petrella, Lea, 2018. "Selection of Value at Risk Models for Energy Commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 628-643.
  44. Baum, Christopher F. & Zerilli, Paola & Chen, Liyuan, 2021. "Stochastic volatility, jumps and leverage in energy and stock markets: Evidence from high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  45. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Araújo Santos, Paulo & Al-Hassan, Abdullah, 2013. "Downside risk management and VaR-based optimal portfolios for precious metals, oil and stocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 318-334.
  46. Xiao, Helu & Zhou, Zhongbao & Ren, Teng & Liu, Wenbin, 2022. "Estimation of portfolio efficiency in nonconvex settings: A free disposal hull estimator with non-increasing returns to scale," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  47. Paraschiv, Florentina & Mudry, Pierre-Antoine & Andries, Alin Marius, 2015. "Stress-testing for portfolios of commodity futures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 9-18.
  48. Herrera, Rodrigo & Rodriguez, Alejandro & Pino, Gabriel, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting extreme commodity prices: A Markov-Switching based extreme value model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 129-143.
  49. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
  50. Chang, Ting-Huan & Su, Hsin-Mei & Chiu, Chien-Liang, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation with the optimal dynamic biofuel portfolio," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 264-272, March.
  51. Yen-Hsien Lee & Hao Fang & Wei-Fan SU, 2014. "Effectiveness of Portfolio Diversification and the Dynamic Relationship between Stock and Currency Markets in the Emerging Eastern European and Russian Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 296-311, September.
  52. Huang, Alex YiHou, 2010. "An optimization process in Value-at-Risk estimation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 109-116, August.
  53. Chiu, Yen-Chen & Chuang, I-Yuan & Lai, Jing-Yi, 2010. "The performance of composite forecast models of value-at-risk in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 423-431, March.
  54. F. Lilla, 2016. "High Frequency vs. Daily Resolution: the Economic Value of Forecasting Volatility Models," Working Papers wp1084, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  55. Mila Andreani & Vincenzo Candila & Giacomo Morelli & Lea Petrella, 2021. "Multivariate Analysis of Energy Commodities during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from a Mixed-Frequency Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-20, August.
  56. Patra, Saswat, 2021. "Revisiting value-at-risk and expected shortfall in oil markets under structural breaks: The role of fat-tailed distributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
  57. Fiszeder, Piotr & Fałdziński, Marcin & Molnár, Peter, 2023. "Attention to oil prices and its impact on the oil, gold and stock markets and their covariance," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  58. Mason, Charles F. & Wilmot, Neil A., 2020. "Jumps in the convenience yield of crude oil," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  59. Amira Akl Ahmed & Doaa Akl Ahmed, 2016. "Modelling Conditional Volatility and Downside Risk for Istanbul Stock Exchange," Working Papers 1028, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2016.
  60. Cheng, Wan-Hsiu & Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2011. "Skewness and leptokurtosis in GARCH-typed VaR estimation of petroleum and metal asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 160-173, January.
  61. Basel Maraqa & Murad Bein, 2020. "Dynamic Interrelationship and Volatility Spillover among Sustainability Stock Markets, Major European Conventional Indices, and International Crude Oil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-14, May.
  62. Samet Gunay & Audil Rashid Khaki, 2018. "Best Fitting Fat Tail Distribution for the Volatilities of Energy Futures: Gev, Gat and Stable Distributions in GARCH and APARCH Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, June.
  63. Alex YiHou Huang, 2010. "An optimization process in Value‐at‐Risk estimation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 109-116, August.
  64. Rangga Handika & Mahjus Ekananda, 2019. "Benefits and Consequences of Diversification: Evidence from Financialzed Commodity Portfolios," Asian Business Research Journal, Sophia, vol. 4(1), pages 17-28.
  65. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Models with Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Risk Management of Commodity Derivatives," EconStor Preprints 167619, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  66. Youssef, Manel & Belkacem, Lotfi & Mokni, Khaled, 2015. "Value-at-Risk estimation of energy commodities: A long-memory GARCH–EVT approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 99-110.
  67. Halkos, George E. & Tsirivis, Apostolos S., 2019. "Value-at-risk methodologies for effective energy portfolio risk management," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 197-212.
  68. Janda, Karel & Kourilek, Jakub, 2020. "Residual shape risk on natural gas market with mixed jump diffusion price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  69. Derek Bunn, Arne Andresen, Dipeng Chen, Sjur Westgaard, 2016. "Analysis and Forecasting of Electricty Price Risks with Quantile Factor Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
  70. Sasa Zikovic & Rafal Weron & Ivana Tomas Zikovic, 2014. "Evaluating the performance of VaR models in energy markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/12, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  71. Aloui, Chaker & Jammazi, Rania, 2009. "The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 789-799, September.
  72. Kostas Andriosopoulos & Nikos Nomikos, 2012. "Risk management in the energy markets and Value-at-Risk modelling: a Hybrid approach," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/47, European University Institute.
  73. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Risk quantification for commodity ETFs: Backtesting value-at-risk and expected shortfall," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  74. Nonejad, Nima, 2017. "Parameter instability, stochastic volatility and estimation based on simulated likelihood: Evidence from the crude oil market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 388-408.
  75. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
  76. Su, Jung-Bin & Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2011. "Empirical analysis of jump dynamics, heavy-tails and skewness on value-at-risk estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1117-1130, May.
  77. Antonio Díaz & Gonzalo García-Donato & Andrés Mora-Valencia, 2019. "Quantifying Risk in Traditional Energy and Sustainable Investments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.
  78. Emenike Kalu O., 2017. "The Interrelationship between Crude Oil Price Volatility and Money Market Rate Volatility in a Developing, Oil-Producing Economy," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 3(1), pages 28-47.
  79. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian, 2017. "Investigating the leverage effect in commodity markets with a recursive estimation approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 763-778.
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