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Mitigating Vulnerability to Oil Price Risk— Applicability of Risk Models to Pakistan’s Energy Problem

Listed author(s):
  • Jamshed Y. Uppal

    (Cathoic University of America, Washington, DC, USA)

  • Syeda Rabab Mudakkar

    (Lahore School of Economics, Lahore.)

The paper examines the prospects of reducing the price risk of Pakistan’s oil imports through hedging in the oil futures market. The paper evaluates the ex-ante cross hedge strategies over the 1990–2013 period using 1–4 months futures NYMEX in order to see how to reduce price risk? Our results indicate that in all cases except one, ex-ante hedging would have been effective in reducing price risk. We provide quantitative estimates of the return/risk tradeoffs from hedging Pakistan’s oil imports, and find that futures hedging offers the country significant risk-reduction potential.

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File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2014/Volume3/293-308.pdf
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Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 53 (2014)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 293-308

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:53:y:2014:i:3:p:293-308
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  1. Sasa Zikovic, 2011. "Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 9-31.
  2. Hung, Jui-Cheng & Lee, Ming-Chih & Liu, Hung-Chun, 2008. "Estimation of value-at-risk for energy commodities via fat-tailed GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1173-1191, May.
  3. Fan, Ying & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3156-3171, November.
  4. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
  5. Afia Malik, 2007. "How Pakistan Is Coping with the Challenge of High Oil Prices," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 551-575.
  6. Afia Malik, 2010. "Oil Prices and Economic Activity in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 11(2), pages 223-244, September.
  7. Marimoutou, Velayoudoum & Raggad, Bechir & Trabelsi, Abdelwahed, 2009. "Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk: Application to oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 519-530, July.
  8. Hotz, Joffre & Unterschultz, James R., 2009. "Hedging Alberta Government's Oil and Gas Revenue: Is Acting Like a Farmer a Viable Strategy?," Staff Paper Series 91401, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
  9. He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung & Yen, Jerome, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-911, September.
  10. Sudhakar S. Raju, 2005. "Risk Return Trade-offs from Hedging Oil Price Risk in Ecuador," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 4(1), pages 27-41, April.
  11. Satyanarayan, Sudhakar & Thigpen, Elton & Varangis, Panos & DEC, 1993. "Hedging cotton price risk in Francophone African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1233, The World Bank.
  12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  13. Bielecki, J., 2002. "Energy security: is the wolf at the door?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 235-250.
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