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Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. He, Ling-Yun & Qian, Wen-Bin, 2012. "A Monte Carlo simulation to the performance of the R/S and V/S methods—Statistical revisit and real world application," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(14), pages 3770-3782.
  2. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. "“Butterfly Effect" vs Chaos in Energy Futures Markets," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0209, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  3. An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Fang, Wei & Huang, Xuan & Ding, Yinghui, 2014. "The role of fluctuating modes of autocorrelation in crude oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 393(C), pages 382-390.
  4. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
  5. Melike Bildirici & Nilgun Guler Bayazit & Yasemen Ucan, 2021. "Modelling Oil Price with Lie Algebras and Long Short-Term Memory Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-10, July.
  6. Melike Bildirici & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2014. "Nonlinearity, Volatility and Fractional Integration in Daily Oil Prices: Smooth Transition Autoregressive ST-FI(AP)GARCH Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 108-135, October.
  7. Hongtao Chen & Lianghua Chen, 2015. "Multifractal spectrum analysis of Brent crude oil futures prices volatility in intercontinental exchange," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 38(1/2/3), pages 93-108.
  8. Song, Zhouying & Zhu, Qiaoling & Han, Mengyao, 2021. "Tele-connection of global crude oil network: Comparisons between direct trade and embodied flows," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
  9. Haider Ali & Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira, 2021. "Modeling Dynamic Multifractal Efficiency of US Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, September.
  10. An, Haizhong & Zhong, Weiqiong & Chen, Yurong & Li, Huajiao & Gao, Xiangyun, 2014. "Features and evolution of international crude oil trade relationships: A trading-based network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 254-259.
  11. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2289-2297.
  12. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
  13. He, Ling-Yun & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2009. "Impact of speculator's expectations of returns and time scales of investment on crude oil price behaviors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 77-84, January.
  14. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  15. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Joseph Macri & Kambiz Raffiee, 2017. "Crude Oil Price Volatility Spillovers and Agricultural Commodities: A Study in Time and Frequency Domains," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 9, pages 42-56, August.
  16. Caraiani, Petre, 2013. "Testing for nonlinearity and chaos in economic time series with noise titration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 192-194.
  17. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Can GARCH-class models capture long memory in WTI crude oil markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 921-927, May.
  18. Korotin, Vladimir & Popov, Victor & Tolokonsky, Andrey & Islamov, Rustam & Ulchenkov, Arseniy, 2017. "A multi-criteria approach to selecting an optimal portfolio of refinery upgrade projects under margin and tax regime uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 50-58.
  19. Mastroeni, Loretta & Vellucci, Pierluigi & Naldi, Maurizio, 2019. "A reappraisal of the chaotic paradigm for energy commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 167-178.
  20. Lu-Tao Zhao & Guan-Rong Zeng & Ling-Yun He & Ya Meng, 2020. "Forecasting Short-Term Oil Price with a Generalised Pattern Matching Model Based on Empirical Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1151-1169, April.
  21. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
  22. Bahram Adrangi & Richard D. Gritta & Kambiz Raffiee, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers and Nonlinear Dynamics between Jet Fuel Prices and Air Carrier Revenue Passenger Miles in the US," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 01-18, August.
  23. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. ""Butterfly Effect" vs Chaos in Energy Futures Markets," Papers 1610.05697, arXiv.org.
  24. Godarzi, Ali Abbasi & Amiri, Rohollah Madadi & Talaei, Alireza & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2014. "Predicting oil price movements: A dynamic Artificial Neural Network approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 371-382.
  25. Cal Muckley, 2004. "Empirical asset return distributions: is chaos the culprit?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 81-86.
  26. Liu, Nairong & An, Haizhong & Hao, Xiaoqing & Feng, Sida, 2017. "The stability of the international heat pump trade pattern based on complex networks analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 100-117.
  27. Aslam, Faheem & Zil-e-huma, & Bibi, Rashida & Ferreira, Paulo, 2022. "Cross-correlations between economic policy uncertainty and precious and industrial metals: A multifractal cross-correlation analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  28. Marisa Faggini, 2011. "Chaotic Time Series Analysis in Economics: Balance and Perspectives," Working papers 25, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
  29. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. ""Chaos" in energy and commodity markets: a controversial matter," Papers 1611.07432, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
  30. Tonn, Victor Lux & Li, H.C. & McCarthy, Joseph, 2010. "Wavelet domain correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and oil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 408-414, November.
  31. Marisa Faggini & Bruna Bruno & Anna Parziale, 2019. "Does Chaos Matter in Financial Time Series Analysis?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 18-24.
  32. Ling-Yun He, 2010. "Is Price Behavior Scaling and Multiscaling in a Dealer Market? Perspectives from Multi-Agent Based Experiments," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 263-282, October.
  33. Tapia Cortez, Carlos A. & Hitch, Michael & Sammut, Claude & Coulton, Jeff & Shishko, Robert & Saydam, Serkan, 2018. "Determining the embedding parameters governing long-term dynamics of copper prices," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 186-197.
  34. Melike Bildirici & Nilgun Guler Bayazit & Yasemen Ucan, 2020. "Analyzing Crude Oil Prices under the Impact of COVID-19 by Using LSTARGARCHLSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-18, June.
  35. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Dengshi, 2010. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: Further evidence using GARCH-class models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1477-1484, November.
  36. Faheem Aslam & Wahbeeah Mohti & Paulo Ferreira, 2020. "Evidence of Intraday Multifractality in European Stock Markets during the Recent Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-13, May.
  37. Lucía Inglada-Pérez & Pablo Coto-Millán, 2021. "A Chaos Analysis of the Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-35, August.
  38. Gu, Rongbao & Chen, Hongtao & Wang, Yudong, 2010. "Multifractal analysis on international crude oil markets based on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2805-2815.
  39. Gu, Rongbao & Zhang, Bing, 2016. "Is efficiency of crude oil market affected by multifractality? Evidence from the WTI crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 151-158.
  40. Lu-Tao Zhao & Guan-Rong Zeng & Wen-Jing Wang & Zhi-Gang Zhang, 2019. "Forecasting Oil Price Using Web-based Sentiment Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-18, November.
  41. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.
  42. Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.
  43. Chen, Shu-Peng & He, Ling-Yun, 2010. "Multifractal spectrum analysis of nonlinear dynamical mechanisms in China’s agricultural futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(7), pages 1434-1444.
  44. Xiaotao Zhang & Zihui Xia & Feng He & Jing Hao, 2025. "Forecasting crude oil prices with alternative data and a deep learning approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 345(2), pages 1165-1191, February.
  45. Ghaffari, Ali & Zare, Samaneh, 2009. "A novel algorithm for prediction of crude oil price variation based on soft computing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 531-536, July.
  46. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2017. "“Chaos” In Energy And Commodity Markets: A Controversial Matter," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0218, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  47. Madarassy Akin, Rita, 2003. "Maturity Effects in Futures Markets: Evidence from Eleven Financial Futures Markets," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt1n04g31b, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  48. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan, 2021. "Fuel price co-movements among France, Germany and Italy: A time-frequency investigation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
  49. Gencer, Murat & Unal, Gazanfer, 2016. "Testing Non-Linear Dynamics, Long Memory and Chaotic Behaviour of Energy Commodities," MPRA Paper 74115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  50. Chantziara, Thalia & Skiadopoulos, George, 2008. "Can the dynamics of the term structure of petroleum futures be forecasted? Evidence from major markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 962-985, May.
  51. He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Shu-Peng, 2010. "Are developed and emerging agricultural futures markets multifractal? A comparative perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3828-3836.
  52. Lucey, Brian & Ren, Boru, 2021. "Does news tone help forecast oil?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  53. Zhang, Yahui & Liu, Li, 2018. "The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 203-211.
  54. Masih, Rumi & Peters, Sanjay & De Mello, Lurion, 2011. "Oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market: Evidence from South Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 975-986, September.
  55. Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & McAleer, Michael, 2006. "Modeling dynamic conditional correlations in WTI oil forward and futures returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 114-132, June.
  56. Bahram Adrangi & Mary E. Allender & Kambiz Raffiee, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Inflation Rates: Exploring Nonlinear Relationships," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-16, April.
  57. He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Shu-Peng, 2010. "Are crude oil markets multifractal? Evidence from MF-DFA and MF-SSA perspectives," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(16), pages 3218-3229.
  58. Madarassy Akin, Rita, 2003. "Maturity Effects in Futures Markets: Evidence from Eleven Financial Futures Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1n04g31b, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  59. Yu Mei & Gao Qian & Liu Zijian & Zhou Yike & Ralescu Dan, 2015. "A Study on the Optimal Portfolio Strategies Under Inflation," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 111-132, April.
  60. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Are the crude oil markets really becoming more efficient over time? Some new evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 253-263.
  61. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Kambiz Raffiee, 2023. "S&P 500 volatility, volatility regimes, and economic uncertainty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 1362-1387, October.
  62. Fan, Ying & Liang, Qiang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "A generalized pattern matching approach for multi-step prediction of crude oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 889-904, May.
  63. Tao Yin & Yiming Wang, 2019. "Predicting the Price of WTI Crude Oil Using ANN and Chaos," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-14, October.
  64. Roza Galeeva, 2025. "In Pursuit of Samuelson for Commodity Futures: How to Parameterize and Calibrate the Term Structure of Volatilities," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-31, July.
  65. Wei, Yu, 2012. "Forecasting volatility of fuel oil futures in China: GARCH-type, SV or realized volatility models?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5546-5556.
  66. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2007. "Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time? A test for time-varying long-range dependence in prices and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-36, January.
  67. Vogl, Markus & Kojić, Milena & Mitić, Petar, 2024. "Dynamics of green and conventional bond markets: Evidence from the generalized chaos analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 633(C).
  68. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, 2020. "Is it possible to accurately forecast the evolution of Brent crude oil prices? An answer based on parametric and nonparametric forecasting methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1285-1305, September.
  69. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  70. Aslam, Faheem & Memon, Bilal Ahmed & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "The dynamics of market efficiency of major cryptocurrencies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
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