Exchange Rates and Inflation Rates: Exploring Nonlinear Relationships
This paper investigates the Purchasing Power Parity Theory (PPP) in the context of possible nonlinear relationships between prices and exchange rates of three key currencies. The main contribution of this paper is testing for nonlinearities and nonlinear relationships in a framework of information arrival. Three issues motivated the paper. First, research interest in exchange rate fluctuations, PPP, and exchange rate pass through. Second, market volatilities have triggered curiosity in nonlineraities in various economic and financial time series and nonlinear relationships and chaos in financial markets. For instance, the study of chaotic behavior may shed some light on the nature of latent nonlinearities. Third, developments in the econometrics of nonlinearity in the last three decades offer researchers new tools for detecting relationships that are inherently nonlinear and may not be conducive to various methodologies that are seeking to impose linear modeling on nonlinear relationships. Our findings show strong evidence that the exchange series exhibit nonlinear dependencies that may be inconsistent with chaotic structure. We identify GARCH(1,1) process as the model that best explains the nonlinearities in the monthly exchange rates and inflation rates. Therefore, we propose and estimate bivariate GARCH(1,1) models of the variances to ascertain the flow of information between exchange rates and prices. Bivariate GARCH models show that, the volatility spillover and information arrival between exchange rates and price levels occur simultaneously. Thus, we find support for the PPP theory and exchange rate pass through in the economies under consideration. We conclude that two theories, i.e., the exchange rate pass through and PPP may simultaneously hold the key to exchange rate analysis.
Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
Issue (Month): (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.bapress.ca
|Order Information:|| Postal: 17 Alton Towers Circle, Unit 101 Toronto, ON, M1V3L8, Canada|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour G. Goswami, 2005. "Black Market Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Parity in Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 37-52, May.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2006.
"Panel data tests of PPP: a critical overview,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 73-91.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2004. "Panel Data Tests Of Ppp: A Critical Overview," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 04-18, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2004. "Panel Data Tests Of Ppp: A Critical Overview," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-18, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cerrato, Mario, 2004. "Panel Data Tests of PPP. A Critical Overview," Economics Series 159, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John Barkoulas, 1998.
"Nonlinear Adjustment to Purchasing Power Parity in the post-Bretton Woods Era,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
404., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Nov 1999.
- Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
- Chan, Kalok & Chan, K C & Karolyi, G Andrew, 1991. "Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 657-84.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992.
" Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Adrangi, Bahram & Chatrath, Arjun & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy & Raffiee, Kambiz, 2001. "Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 405-425, July.
- Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bap:journl:110201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bill Yan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.