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An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Giovanni Peri & Derek Rury & Justin C. Wiltshire, 2024. "The Economic Impact of Migrants from Hurricane Maria," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(6), pages 1795-1829.
  2. Masahiro Kato & Akari Ohda, 2023. "Asymptotically Unbiased Synthetic Control Methods by Moment Matching," Papers 2307.11127, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
  3. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2023. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross‐Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2125-2154, November.
  4. Lionel Fontagn'e & Francesca Micocci & Armando Rungi, 2024. "The heterogeneous impact of the EU-Canada agreement with causal machine learning," Papers 2407.07652, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
  5. Jianfei Cao & Connor Dowd, 2019. "Estimation and Inference for Synthetic Control Methods with Spillover Effects," Papers 1902.07343, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
  6. Garoupa, Nuno & Spruk, Rok, 2025. "Populist constitutional backsliding and judicial independence: Evidence from Türkiye," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  7. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
  8. Billy Ferguson & Brad Ross, 2020. "Assessing the Sensitivity of Synthetic Control Treatment Effect Estimates to Misspecification Error," Papers 2012.15367, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  9. Michael Funke & Helery Tasane, 2025. "Regional economic impacts of the Øresund cross-border fixed link: Cui Bono?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(1), pages 2573115-257, December.
  10. Zhentao Shi & Yishu Wang, 2025. "L2-relaxation for Economic Prediction," Papers 2510.12183, arXiv.org.
  11. Nicolaj N. Mühlbach, 2020. "Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy," CREATES Research Papers 2020-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  12. Achille Nazaret & Claudia Shi & David M. Blei, 2023. "On the Misspecification of Linear Assumptions in Synthetic Control," Papers 2302.12777, arXiv.org.
  13. Nuno Garoupa & Virginia Rosales & Rok Spruk, 2025. "Assaults on Judicial Independence under the Pretense of Modernization: Evidence from Venezuela," Papers 2511.10681, arXiv.org.
  14. Lucke, Bernd, 2022. "Growth Effects of European Monetary Union: A Synthetic Control Approach," MPRA Paper 120662, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Mar 2024.
  15. Charotti, Carlos Javier & Palma, Nuno & dos Santos, Joao Pereira, 2022. "American treasure and the decline of Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 17020, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Jiafeng Chen, 2022. "Synthetic Control As Online Linear Regression," Papers 2202.08426, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
  17. repec:ces:ceswps:_119333 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Yihong Xu & Quan Zhou, 2025. "Bayesian Synthetic Control with a Soft Simplex Constraint," Papers 2503.06454, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
  19. Bruno Ferman, 2023. "Inference in difference‐in‐differences: How much should we trust in independent clusters?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 358-369, April.
  20. Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Ming Lin & Zixuan Wu, 2023. "A Quasi Synthetic Control Method for Nonlinear Models With High-Dimensional Covariates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202305, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2023.
  21. Justin C. Wiltshire, 2023. "Walmart Supercenters and Monopsony Power: How A Large, Low-Wage Employer Impacts Local Labor Markets," Department Discussion Papers 2304, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  22. Priscila Espinosa & Daniel Aparicio-Pérez & José Manuel Pavía & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2023. "On the Impact of Next Generation EU Funds: A Regional Synthetic Control Method Approach," Working Papers 2023/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  23. Giovanni Mellace & Alessandra Pasquini, 2022. "Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1389, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  24. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen & Jorge Pérez Pérez & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2021. "Visualization, Identification, and Estimation in the Linear Panel Event-Study Design," NBER Working Papers 29170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Erick Lahura & Rosario Sabrera, 2023. "The effect of infrastructure investment on tourism demand: a synthetic control approach for the case of Kuelap, Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 443-478, July.
  26. Eli Ben‐Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2022. "Synthetic controls with staggered adoption," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(2), pages 351-381, April.
  27. Ignacio Martinez & Jaume Vives-i-Bastida, 2022. "Bayesian and Frequentist Inference for Synthetic Controls," Papers 2206.01779, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  28. Barber, Andrew & West, Jeremy, 2022. "Conditional cash lotteries increase COVID-19 vaccination rates," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  29. Davide Viviano & Jelena Bradic, 2019. "Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time," Papers 1904.01490, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
  30. Peter Backus & Thien Nguyen, 2021. "The Effect of the Sex Buyer Law on the Market for Sex, Sexual Health and Sexual Violence," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2106, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  31. Alberto Abadie & Jaume Vives-i-Bastida, 2022. "Synthetic Controls in Action," Papers 2203.06279, arXiv.org.
  32. Luis A. F. Alvarez & Bruno Ferman, 2024. "On “Imputation of Counterfactual Outcomes when the Errors are Predictable”: Discussions on Misspecification and Suggestions of Sensitivity Analyses," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 1123-1127, October.
  33. Kuosmanen, Timo & Zhou, Xun & Eskelinen, Juha & Malo, Pekka, 2021. "Design Flaw of the Synthetic Control Method," MPRA Paper 106328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2018. "Exact and robust conformal inference methods for predictive machine learning with dependent data," CeMMAP working papers CWP16/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  35. Chen, Qian & Koch, Christoffer & Richardson, Gary & Sharma, Padma, 2025. "Suspensions of payments and their consequences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  36. Cao, Jing & Ho, Mun S. & Ma, Rong & Teng, Fei, 2021. "When carbon emission trading meets a regulated industry: Evidence from the electricity sector of China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  37. Debdeep Chattopadhyay, 2023. "Did the Massachusetts Health Reform Program increase self-employment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1309-1344, September.
  38. Ben Deaner & Chen-Wei Hsiang & Andrei Zeleneev, 2025. "Inferring Treatment Effects in Large Panels by Uncovering Latent Similarities," Papers 2503.20769, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
  39. Joseph Fry, 2023. "A Method of Moments Approach to Asymptotically Unbiased Synthetic Controls," Papers 2312.01209, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  40. Guido W. Imbens & Davide Viviano, 2023. "Identification and Inference for Synthetic Controls with Confounding," Papers 2312.00955, arXiv.org.
  41. Nicolaj S{o}ndergaard Muhlbach & Mikkel Slot Nielsen, 2019. "Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy," Papers 1909.03968, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  42. Woo-Mora, L. Guillermo, 2025. "Populism’s original sin: Short-term populist penalties and uncertainty traps," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  43. Ruiz, Miguel Haro & Schult, Christoph & Wunder, Christoph, 2024. "The effects of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation: A synthetic-controls approach," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  44. Su, Liangjun & Jin, Sainan & Wang, Xia, 2025. "Sieve estimation of state-varying factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
  45. Roberta Di Stefano & Giovanni Mellace, 2020. "The inclusive synthetic control method," Working Papers 21/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
  46. Alberto Abadie & Jinglong Zhao, 2021. "Synthetic Controls for Experimental Design," Papers 2108.02196, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
  47. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
  48. Ye Shen & Rui Song & Alberto Abadie, 2025. "Efficiently Learning Synthetic Control Models for High-dimensional Disaggregated Data," Papers 2510.22828, arXiv.org.
  49. Taehyeon Koo & Zijian Guo, 2025. "Distributionally Robust Synthetic Control: Ensuring Robustness Against Highly Correlated Controls and Weight Shifts," Papers 2511.02632, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
  50. Justin Wiltshire, 2021. "allsynth: Synthetic control bias-corrections utilities for Stata," 2021 Stata Conference 15, Stata Users Group.
  51. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
  52. Angelo Forino & Andrea Mercatanti & Giacomo Morelli, 2025. "Propensity score with factor loadings: the effect of the Paris Agreement," Papers 2507.08764, arXiv.org.
  53. Ferman, Bruno, 2021. "Matching estimators with few treated and many control observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 295-307.
  54. Viviano, Davide & Bradic, Jelena, 2023. "Synthetic Learner: Model-free inference on treatments over time," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 691-713.
  55. Melissa Dell, 2025. "Deep Learning for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(1), pages 5-58, March.
  56. Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo, 2024. "Synthetic controls with machine learning: application on the effect of labour deregulation on worker productivity in Brazil," BIS Working Papers 1181, Bank for International Settlements.
  57. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & David Hirshberg, 2023. "Large-Sample Properties of the Synthetic Control Method under Selection on Unobservables," Papers 2311.13575, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
  58. Chengwang Liao & Zhentao Shi & Yapeng Zheng, 2025. "A Relaxation Approach to Synthetic Control," Papers 2508.01793, arXiv.org.
  59. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wuthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2018. "Debiasing and $t$-tests for synthetic control inference on average causal effects," Papers 1812.10820, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
  60. Rong J. B. Zhu, 2023. "Synthetic Regressing Control Method," Papers 2306.02584, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  61. Fry, Joseph, 2024. "A method of moments approach to asymptotically unbiased Synthetic Controls," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(1).
  62. Hideki Shimada & Kenji Asano & Yu Nagai & Akito Ozawa, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Offshore Wind Power Deployment on Fishery: A Synthetic Control Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(3), pages 791-829, November.
  63. Claudia Shi & Dhanya Sridhar & Vishal Misra & David M. Blei, 2021. "On the Assumptions of Synthetic Control Methods," Papers 2112.05671, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
  64. Li, Xingyu & Shen, Yan & Zhou, Qiankun, 2024. "Confidence intervals of treatment effects in panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
  65. Bruno Ferman, 2021. "On the Properties of the Synthetic Control Estimator with Many Periods and Many Controls," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1764-1772, October.
  66. Maximilian Langer & Joshua Hassib & Lars P. Feld & Daniel Nientiedt, 2025. "Evaluating the Effects of the German Debt Brake: A Synthetic Control Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 11933, CESifo.
  67. Demirci, Murat, 2023. "Youth responses to political populism: Education abroad as a step toward emigration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 653-673.
  68. Luis Alvarez & Bruno Ferman, 2025. "On the relationship between prediction intervals, tests of sharp nulls and inference on realized treatment effects in settings with few treated units," Papers 2506.14998, arXiv.org.
  69. Jason Poulos, 2019. "State-Building through Public Land Disposal? An Application of Matrix Completion for Counterfactual Prediction," Papers 1903.08028, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
  70. David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2024. "Randomization Inference: Theory and Applications," Papers 2406.09521, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
  71. Matias D. Cattaneo & Yingjie Feng & Filippo Palomba & Rocio Titiunik, 2022. "scpi: Uncertainty Quantification for Synthetic Control Methods," Papers 2202.05984, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
  72. Jorge A. Arroyo, 2025. "Short-Run Multi-Outcome Effects of Nightlife Regulation in San Juan," Papers 2510.25782, arXiv.org.
  73. Eli Ben-Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2021. "The Augmented Synthetic Control Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1789-1803, October.
  74. Yinchu Zhu, 2019. "How well can we learn large factor models without assuming strong factors?," Papers 1910.10382, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
  75. Lea Bottmer & Guido Imbens & Jann Spiess & Merrill Warnick, 2021. "A Design-Based Perspective on Synthetic Control Methods," Papers 2101.09398, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
  76. Chen, Qiang & Xiao, Zhijie & Yao, Qingsong, 2025. "Quantile control via random forest," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PA).
  77. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto, 2021. "Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1197-1221, November.
  78. Sílvia Gonçalves & Serena Ng, 2024. "Imputation of Counterfactual Outcomes when the Errors are Predictable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 1107-1122, October.
  79. Shosei Sakaguchi & Hayato Tagawa, 2024. "Identification and Inference for Synthetic Control Methods with Spillover Effects: Estimating the Economic Cost of the Sudan Split," Papers 2408.00291, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
  80. Cong Wang, 2024. "Counterfactual and Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Instrumented Principal Component Analysis," Papers 2408.09271, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
  81. Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor, 2015. "Synthesizing Cash for Clunkers: Stabilizing the Car Market, Hurting the Environment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113207, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  82. Luis Alvarez & Bruno Ferman, 2023. "Extensions for Inference in Difference-in-Differences with Few Treated Clusters," Papers 2302.03131, arXiv.org.
  83. Robert Messerle & Jonas Schreyögg, 2024. "Country-level effects of diagnosis-related groups: evidence from Germany’s comprehensive reform of hospital payments," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 25(6), pages 1013-1030, August.
  84. Victor Chernozhukov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Iván Fernández‐Val, 2025. "Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(4), pages 1121-1164, July.
  85. Bülte, Christopher & Buse, Rebekka, 2025. "Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and COVID-19 in the UK," Working Paper Series in Economics 174, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
  86. Isaiah Andrews & Drew Fudenberg & Lihua Lei & Annie Liang & Chaofeng Wu, 2022. "The Transfer Performance of Economic Models," Papers 2202.04796, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
  87. Niklas Potrafke & Luisa Dörr & Klaus Gründler & Tuuli Tähtinen & Luisa Dörr, 2025. "Female Leaders and the Representation of Women in Government," CESifo Working Paper Series 11851, CESifo.
  88. Luisa Doerr & Florian Dorn & Stefanie Gaebler & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "How new airport infrastructure promotes tourism: evidence from a synthetic control approach in German regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(10), pages 1402-1412, October.
  89. Yan Zhang & Zudi Lu, 2024. "A Time Series Synthetic Control Causal Evaluation of the UK’s Mini-Budget Policy on Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-25, October.
  90. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2019. "Inference on average treatment effects in aggregate panel data settings," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  91. Jiafeng Chen, 2023. "Synthetic Control as Online Linear Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 465-491, March.
  92. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez García & Luke Miller, 2025. "Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge," Working Papers 2511, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  93. Sandro Heiniger, 2024. "Data-driven model selection within the matrix completion method for causal panel data models," Papers 2402.01069, arXiv.org.
  94. Vivek F. Farias & Andrew A. Li & Tianyi Peng, 2021. "Learning Treatment Effects in Panels with General Intervention Patterns," Papers 2106.02780, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
  95. Alexander Almeida & Susan Athey & Guido Imbens & Eva Lestant & Alexia Olaizola, 2025. "Estimating Variances for Causal Panel Data Estimators," Papers 2510.11841, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
  96. Luis Costa & Vivek F. Farias & Patricio Foncea & Jingyuan (Donna) Gan & Ayush Garg & Ivo Rosa Montenegro & Kumarjit Pathak & Tianyi Peng & Dusan Popovic, 2023. "Generalized Synthetic Control for TestOps at ABI: Models, Algorithms, and Infrastructure," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 336-349, September.
  97. Sang‐Wook (Stanley) Cho & Hansoo Choi, 2025. "Unlocking the impact of US free trade agreements on industries with a synthetic control approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(2), pages 716-746, May.
  98. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
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