IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2510.25782.html

Short-Run Multi-Outcome Effects of Nightlife Regulation in San Juan

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge A. Arroyo

Abstract

I evaluate San Juan, Puerto Rico's late-night alcohol sales ordinance using a multi-outcome synthetic control that pools economic and public-safety series. I show that a common-weight estimator clarifies mechanisms under low-rank outcome structure. I find economically meaningful reallocations in targeted sectors -- restaurants and bars, gasoline and convenience, and hospitality employment -- while late-night public disorder arrests and violent crime show no clear departures from pre-policy trends. The short post-policy window and small donor pool limit statistical power; joint conformal and permutation tests do not reject the null at conventional thresholds. I therefore emphasize effect magnitudes, temporal persistence, and pre-trend fit over formal significance. Code and diagnostics are available for replication.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge A. Arroyo, 2025. "Short-Run Multi-Outcome Effects of Nightlife Regulation in San Juan," Papers 2510.25782, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2510.25782
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.25782
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2021. "An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1849-1864, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolaj N. Mühlbach, 2020. "Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy," CREATES Research Papers 2020-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Davide Viviano & Jelena Bradic, 2019. "Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time," Papers 1904.01490, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    3. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    4. Robert Messerle & Jonas Schreyögg, 2024. "Country-level effects of diagnosis-related groups: evidence from Germany’s comprehensive reform of hospital payments," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 25(6), pages 1013-1030, August.
    5. Michael Funke & Helery Tasane, 2025. "Regional economic impacts of the Øresund cross-border fixed link: Cui Bono?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(1), pages 2573115-257, December.
    6. Peter Backus & Thien Nguyen, 2021. "The Effect of the Sex Buyer Law on the Market for Sex, Sexual Health and Sexual Violence," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2106, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. Ben Deaner & Chen-Wei Hsiang & Andrei Zeleneev, 2025. "Inferring Treatment Effects in Large Panels by Uncovering Latent Similarities," Papers 2503.20769, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    8. Ruiz, Miguel Haro & Schult, Christoph & Wunder, Christoph, 2024. "The effects of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation: A synthetic-controls approach," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Zhentao Shi & Yishu Wang, 2025. "L2-relaxation for Economic Prediction," Papers 2510.12183, arXiv.org.
    10. Kuosmanen, Timo & Zhou, Xun & Eskelinen, Juha & Malo, Pekka, 2021. "Design Flaw of the Synthetic Control Method," MPRA Paper 106328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Debdeep Chattopadhyay, 2023. "Did the Massachusetts Health Reform Program increase self-employment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1309-1344, September.
    12. Luisa Doerr & Florian Dorn & Stefanie Gaebler & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "How new airport infrastructure promotes tourism: evidence from a synthetic control approach in German regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(10), pages 1402-1412, October.
    13. Giovanni Peri & Derek Rury & Justin C. Wiltshire, 2024. "The Economic Impact of Migrants from Hurricane Maria," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(6), pages 1795-1829.
    14. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez García & Luke Miller, 2025. "Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge," Working Papers 2511, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Sandro Heiniger, 2024. "Data-driven model selection within the matrix completion method for causal panel data models," Papers 2402.01069, arXiv.org.
    16. Billy Ferguson & Brad Ross, 2020. "Assessing the Sensitivity of Synthetic Control Treatment Effect Estimates to Misspecification Error," Papers 2012.15367, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    17. Bruno Ferman, 2021. "On the Properties of the Synthetic Control Estimator with Many Periods and Many Controls," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1764-1772, October.
    18. Lea Bottmer & Guido Imbens & Jann Spiess & Merrill Warnick, 2021. "A Design-Based Perspective on Synthetic Control Methods," Papers 2101.09398, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    19. Nicolaj S{o}ndergaard Muhlbach & Mikkel Slot Nielsen, 2019. "Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy," Papers 1909.03968, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    20. Roberta Di Stefano & Giovanni Mellace, 2020. "The inclusive synthetic control method," Working Papers 21/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2510.25782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.