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Long-Term Health and Human Capital Effects of Universal Health Care and Mass Literacy: Evidence from Cuba

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  • Giovanni Mellace
  • Rok Spruk

Abstract

We estimate long-run effects of Cuba's 1961 National Health Service and contemporaneous National Literacy Campaign using synthetic-control methods on newly assembled series for 21 former European colonies in the Americas, 1900--2022. Relative to synthetic Cuba, infant mortality falls 15--29 percent and average years of schooling rise 1.5--2 years; both effects are large, persistent, and robust to augmented SCM, synthetic difference-in-differences, interactive fixed effects, and matrix completion. Life-expectancy gains attenuate after 1990, consistent with the post-Soviet Special Period, suggesting that bundled health and literacy reforms permanently raise early-life survival and human capital, with smaller and less robust effects on adult longevity.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Mellace & Rok Spruk, 2026. "Long-Term Health and Human Capital Effects of Universal Health Care and Mass Literacy: Evidence from Cuba," Papers 2605.29785, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.29785
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