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Why you should use the Hodrick-Prescott filter - at least to generate credit gaps
Citations
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Cited by:
- Daniel O. Beltran & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Fiona A. Paine, 2021. "Optimizing Credit Gaps for Predicting Financial Crises: Modelling Choices and Tradeoffs," International Finance Discussion Papers 1307, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tamás Sebestyén & Zita Iloskics, 2020. "Do economic shocks spread randomly?: A topological study of the global contagion network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, September.
- Terhi Jokipii & Reto Nyffeler & Stéphane Riederer, 2021.
"Exploring BIS credit-to-GDP gap critiques: the Swiss case,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-19, December.
- Dr. Terhi Jokipii & Dr. Reto Nyffeler & Stéphane Riederer, 2020. "Exploring BIS credit-to-GDP gap critiques: the Swiss case," Working Papers 2020-19, Swiss National Bank.
- Viv B Hall & Peter Thomson, 2020.
"Does Hamilton’s OLS regression provide a “better alternative†to the Hodrick-Prescott filter? A New Zealand business cycle perspective,"
CAMA Working Papers
2020-71, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2020. "Does Hamilton’s OLS regression provide a “better alternative†to the Hodrick-Prescott filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Working Paper Series 8956, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
- Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2022.
"Financial Crises, Macroprudential Policy and the Reliability of Credit-to-GDP Gaps,"
IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 625-667, December.
- Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2020. "Financial crises, macroprudential policy and the reliability of credit-to-GDP gaps," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 567, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Bologna, Pierluigi & Galardo, Maddalena, 2021. "Financial crises, macroprudential policy and the reliability of credit-to-GDP gaps," ESRB Working Paper Series 114, European Systemic Risk Board.
- Hodula Martin & Malovaná Simona & Frait Jan, 2022.
"Too much of a good thing? Households’ macroeconomic conditions and credit dynamics,"
German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 529-566, December.
- Martin Hodula & Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, 2019. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Households' Macroeconomic Conditions and Credit Dynamics," Working Papers 2019/11, Czech National Bank.
- Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2023.
"The Impact of Risk Cycles on Business Cycles: A Historical View,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(7), pages 2922-2961.
- Jón Daníelsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2022. "The impact of risk cycles on business cycles: a historical view," International Finance Discussion Papers 1358, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Danielsson, Jon & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2022. "The impact of risk cycles on business cycles: a historical view," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117384, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Hasenzagl, Thomas, 2020.
"Financial variables as predictors of real growth vulnerability,"
Discussion Papers
05/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Thomas Hasenzagl, 2020. "Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-06, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Thomas Hasenzagl, 2020. "Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403077, HAL.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Hasenzagl, Thomas, 2020. "Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability," CEPR Discussion Papers 14322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Thomas Hasenzagl, 2020. "Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability," Working Papers hal-03403077, HAL.
- Jacopo Bonchi & Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2020. "How Low Interest Rates Discern the Bubbles Nature: Leveraged vs Unleveraged Bubble," Working Papers 12/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
- Carnazza, Giovanni & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The cyclically-adjusted primary balance: A novel approach for the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1123-1145.
- Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing Credit Gaps in CESEE Based on Levels Justified by Fundamentals – A Comparison Across Different Estimation Approaches (Mariarosaria Comunale, Markus Eller, Mathias Lahnsteiner)," Working Papers 229, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Sleibi, Yacoub & Casalin, Fabrizio & Fazio, Giorgio, 2020.
"Bank-specific shocks and aggregate leverage: Empirical evidence from a panel of developed countries,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
- Yacoub Sleibi & Fabrizio Casalin & Giorgio Fazio, 2020. "Bank-specific shocks and aggregate leverage: Empirical evidence from a panel of developed countries," Post-Print hal-03133033, HAL.
- Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2021.
"Does Hamilton’s OLS Regression Provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott Filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 151-183, November.
- Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2020. "Does Hamilton’s OLS regression provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Working Paper Series 21070, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
- De Schryder, Selien & Opitz, Frederic, 2021.
"Macroprudential policy and its impact on the credit cycle,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
- Selien De Schryder & Frederic Opitz, 2019. "Macroprudential policy and its impact on the Credit Cycle," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 19/990, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Adam Geršl & Thomas Mitterling, 2021. "Forecast-Augmented Credit-to-GDP Gap as an Early Warning Indicator of Banking Crises," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 323-351, December.
- Ihejirika, Peters. O, 2020. "Does the Credit-to-GDP Gap Predict Financial Crisis in Nigeria?," International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 109-126, June.
- Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2019. "Real-time signals anticipating credit booms in Euro Area countries," Working Papers in Public Economics 189, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
- Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2021.
"Which Credit Gap Is Better at Predicting Financial Crises? A Comparison of Univariate Filters,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-31, October.
- Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2020. "Which credit gap is better at predicting financial crises? A comparison of univariate filters," BIS Working Papers 878, Bank for International Settlements.
- Paul-Olivier Klein & Rima Turk-Ariss, 2022. "Bank capital and economic activity," Post-Print hal-03955630, HAL.
- Ziwei Mei & Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhentao Shi, 2022.
"The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think,"
Papers
2209.09810, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
- Ziwei Mei & Zhentao Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2348, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kauko, Karlo & Tölö, Eero, 2019.
"On the long-run calibration of the credit-to-GDP gap as a banking crisis predictor,"
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers
6/2019, Bank of Finland.
- Kauko, Karlo & Tölö, Eero, 2019. "On the long-run calibration of the credit-to-GDP gap as a banking crisis predictor," Research Discussion Papers 6/2019, Bank of Finland.
- Gammadigbe, Vigninou, 2022. "Financial Cycles Synchronization in WAEMU Countries: Implications for Macroprudential Policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
- Önundur Páll Ragnarsson & Jón Magnús Hannesson & Loftur Hreinsson, 2019. "Financial cycles as early warning indicators - Lessons from the Nordic region," Economics wp80, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
- Nicolas Reigl & Lenno Uusküla, 2021.
"Alternative frameworks for measuring credit gaps and setting countercyclical capital buffers,"
Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 161-179, February.
- Nicolas Reigl & Lenno Uuskula, 2019. "Alternative frameworks for measuring credit gaps and setting countercyclical capital buffers," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2018-07, Bank of Estonia, revised 23 Jan 2019.
- Rünstler, Gerhard & Bräuer, Leonie, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission over the leverage cycle: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2421, European Central Bank.
- Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey & Rozhkova, Anna, 2020.
"When are credit gap estimates reliable?,"
Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 221-238.
- Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova, 2018. "When are credit gap estimates reliable?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps34, Bank of Russia.
- Mark Setterfield & Joana David Avritzer, 2020.
"Hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization: A behavioral explanation,"
Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 898-919, November.
- Mark Setterfield & Joana David Avritzer, 2019. "Hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization: a behavioural explanation," Working Papers 1907, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
- Dionysios Chionis & Fotios Mitropoulos & Antonios Sarantidis, 2021. "Business cycles and macroeconomic asymmetries: New evidence from Eurozone and European countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5977-5996, October.
- Puspa D. Amri & Eric M. P. Chiu & Jacob M. Meyer & Greg M. Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2022. "Correlates of Crisis Induced Credit Market Discipline: The Roles of Democracy, Veto Players, and Government Turnover," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 61-87, February.
- Wang, Xi & Liu, Ying & Chen, Zhongfei, 2022. "Monetary policy dysregulation with data distortion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
- Danielsson, Jon & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2020. "Financial volatility and economic growth, 1870-2016," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118886, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Credit-to-GDP Gap Estimates in Real Time: A Stable Indicator for Macroprudential Policy Making in Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 582-614, September.
- Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Signe Krogstrup & Gustavo Adler & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mai Dao & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan & Luciana Juvenal & Ms. Carolina Osorio-Buitron & Cyril Rebillard & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia &, 2019. "The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update," IMF Working Papers 2019/065, International Monetary Fund.
- Fernandez-Gallardo, Alvaro, 2023. "Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
- Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
- Andreas Kern & Puspa Amri, 2021. "Political credit cycles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 76-108, March.
- Kady Keita & Camelia Turcu, 2023.
"Promoting Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy: Fiscal Rules Versus Institutions,"
Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(4), pages 736-781, December.
- Kady Keita & Camelia Turcu, 2022. "Promoting Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy: Fiscal Rules Versus Institutions," Post-Print hal-04059017, HAL.
- Wolassa L. Kumo, 2022. "Working Paper 362 - Economic Growth, Total Factor Productivity and Output Gap in Sierra Leone," Working Paper Series 2488, African Development Bank.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4nn4ojjkth8qe9ci5b0hpu7ala is not listed on IDEAS
- Serju-Thomas, Prudence, 2020. "Fiscal sustainability: The case for Jamaica," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
- Chikako Baba & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Olamide Harrison & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Anvar Musayev & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2020. "How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/006, International Monetary Fund.
- Vatsa, Puneet, 2021. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronous After NAFTA?," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 54-66, May.
- Roy, Saktinil, 2022. "What drives the systemic banking crises in advanced economies?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
- Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan & Valdivia Coria, Daney David, 2021. "Impacto del Stress Sistémico en el Crecimiento Económico: Caso Guatemala [Systemic Stress Impact on Economic Growth: The case of Guatemala]," MPRA Paper 110669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Meng Yan & Kai Shi, 2024. "Revisiting the Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from China’s Investment Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 457-495, July.
- Łukasz Kurowski, 2021. "Financial cycle − A critical analysis of the methodology for its identification," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 99-116.
- Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora, 2019. "Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread," BIS Working Papers 818, Bank for International Settlements.
- Jeerawadee Pumjaroen & Preecha Vichitthamaros & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2020. "Forecasting Economic Cycle with a Structural Equation Model: Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 47-57.
- Bernhard Herz & Jochen Keller, 2023. "How Do Regulators Set the Countercyclical Capital Buffer?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 99-137, August.
- Zahra H. Oskouei & Zahra Heidary Sureshjani, 2021. "Studying the relationship between managerial ability and real earnings management in economic and financial crisis conditions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4574-4589, July.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4nn4ojjkth8qe9ci5b0hpu7ala is not listed on IDEAS
- Panizza, Ugo, 2022.
"Do Countries Default in Bad Times? The Role of Alternative Detrending Techniques,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
17216, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ugo Panizza, 2022. "Do Countries Default in Bad Times? The Role of Alternative Detrending Techniques," IHEID Working Papers 06-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Coussin, Maximilien, 2022. "Singular spectrum analysis for real-time financial cycles measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
- Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2024. "Calibrating the countercyclical capital buffer using AUROCs," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 53(1), February.
- Yıldırım Furkan, 2021. "Analysis of the relationship between countercyclical capital buffer and performance and risk indicators of the banking sector," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(3), pages 103-123, September.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_006 is not listed on IDEAS
- Klein, Paul-Olivier & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2022. "Bank capital and economic activity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Helene Olsen & Harald Wieslander, 2020. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Leading Variables for Financial Stability in Norway," Working Papers No 02/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Gjergj Legisi, 2020. "Credit-to-GDP gap: Local versus foreign currency credit," IHEID Working Papers 13-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.