IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eea/boewps/wp2018-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Alternative frameworks for measuring credit gaps and setting countercyclical capital buffers

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Reigl
  • Lenno Uuskula

Abstract

This paper complements the standard Basel countercyclical capital buffer framework by suggesting four additional measures for credit gaps that can be used to measure the financial cycle and to decide on countercyclical capital buffers for banks. The new measures behave similarly to the gaps calculated with the standard Basel one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter in long samples, but they have the properties desired for countries with relatively short historical samples. While the standard Basel credit gaps have been deep in negative territory for many European Union countries since the Great Recession the new gaps are close to zero and the buffers suggested are more in line with the countercyclical capital buffer ratios that were in place in 2018.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Reigl & Lenno Uuskula, 2019. "Alternative frameworks for measuring credit gaps and setting countercyclical capital buffers," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2018-07, Bank of Estonia, revised 23 Jan 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2018-07
    DOI: 10.23656/25045520/072018/0159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.23656/25045520/072018/0159
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.23656/25045520/072018/0159?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The Unreliability of Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps in Real Time: Implications for Countercyclical Capital Buffers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 261-298, December.
    2. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
    2. Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017. "Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.
    3. Alvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca & Alfonso Ugarte Ruiz, 2015. "Introducing a New Early Warning System Indicator (EWSI) of banking crises," Working Papers 1502, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2018. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer: the Czech example," ESRB Working Paper Series 82, European Systemic Risk Board.
    5. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    6. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    7. Schudel, Willem, 2015. "Shifting horizons: assessing macro trends before, during, and following systemic banking crises," Working Paper Series 1766, European Central Bank.
    8. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2015. "Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Working Paper Series 1769, European Central Bank.
    9. Hans Genberg & Michael Zamorski, 2015. "Implementing Macroprudential Policies: Challenges, Pitfalls and Way Forward," Working Papers wp09, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    10. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    11. Thibaut Duprey & Timothy Grieder & Dylan Hogg, 2017. "Recent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation," Staff Analytical Notes 17-25, Bank of Canada.
    12. Paolo Giordani & Simon H. Kwan, 2019. "Tracking Financial Fragility," Working Paper Series 2019-6, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves, 2020. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Discussion Papers 33/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Kátay Gábor & Kerdelhué Lisa & Lequien Matthieu, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working papers 791, Banque de France.
    15. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    16. Domikowsky, Christian & Bornemann, Sven & Duellmann, Klaus & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2014. "Loan loss provisioning and procyclicality: Evidence from an expected loss model," Discussion Papers 39/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Vladimir Borgy, 2014. "The Credit‐To‐Gdp Gap And Complementary Indicators For Macroprudential Policy: Evidence From The Uk: Comment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 48-48, January.
    18. Hosszú, Zsuzsanna & Körmendi, Gyöngyi & Mérő, Bence, 2016. "Egy- és többváltozós szűrők a hitelrés alakulásának meghatározására [Filters with single or multiple variables in measuring the size of the credit gap]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 233-259.
    19. Basten, Christhoph & Koch, Cathérine, 2015. "Higher Bank Capital Requirements and Mortgage Pricing: Evidence from the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCB)," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 26, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    20. Jannsen, Nils & Quast, Josefine, 2018. "Der Finanzzyklus in Deutschland," IfW-Box 2018.15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit gaps; countercyclical capital buffer; Basel III; Estonia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2018-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epgovee.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peeter Luikmel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epgovee.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.