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The heterogeneous effects of training incidence and duration on labor market transitions


  • Fitzenberger, Bernd
  • Osikominu, Aderonke
  • Paul, Marie


This paper estimates the impact of training incidence and duration on employment transitions accounting for the endogeneity of program participation and duration. We specify a very flexible bivariate random effects probit model for employment and training participation and we use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for estimation. We develop a simulation approach that uses the estimated coefficients and individual specific effects from the MCMC iterations to calculate the posterior distributions of different treatment effects of interest. Our estimation results imply positive effects of training on the employment probability of the treated, lying between 12 and 21 percentage points ten quarters after program start. The effects are higher for women than for men and higher in West Germany than in East Germany. Further, we find that the effect of training versus waiting underestimates the effect of training versus no training in the medium and long run by a third. Finally, our results show that longer planned enrolment lengths of three and four quarters as opposed to just two quarters lead to an increase in employment rates in the medium and long run by four to eleven percentage points.

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  • Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke & Paul, Marie, 2010. "The heterogeneous effects of training incidence and duration on labor market transitions," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-077, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:10077

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    2. Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Gonzalez, Arturo & Neumann, Todd C., 2007. "Estimating the Effects of Length of Exposure to a Training Program: The Case of Job Corps," IZA Discussion Papers 2846, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2011. "What Can Active Labour Market Policies Do?," Papers EC1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Bräuninger, Michael & Michaelis, Jochen & Sode, Madlen, 2013. "10 Jahre Hartz-Reformen," HWWI Policy Papers 73, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
      • Michael Bräuninger & Jochen Michaelis & Madlen Sode, 2013. "10 Jahre Hartz-Reformen," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201318, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Heyer, Gerd & Koch, Susanne & Stephan, Gesine & Wolff, Joachim, 2011. "Evaluation der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik: Ein Sachstandsbericht für die Instrumentenreform 2011 (Evaluation of active labor market programs : a summary of recent results for the German program refor," IAB Discussion Paper 201117, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Tiemen M. Woutersen & John Ham, 2013. "Calculating confidence intervals for continuous and discontinuous functions of parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP23/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Daniel Fernández-Kranz & Marie Paul & Núria Rodríguez-Planas, 2015. "Part-Time Work, Fixed-Term Contracts, and the Returns to Experience," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(4), pages 512-541, August.
    6. Ulf Rinne & Arne Uhlendorff & Zhong Zhao, 2013. "Vouchers and caseworkers in training programs for the unemployed," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1089-1127, December.
    7. Lechner, Michael, 2013. "Treatment effects and panel data," Economics Working Paper Series 1314, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    8. Peter Haan & Daniel Kemptner & Arne Uhlendorff, 2015. "Bayesian procedures as a numerical tool for the estimation of an intertemporal discrete choice model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1123-1141, November.
    9. Kluve, Jochen & Rinne, Ulf & Uhlendorff, Arne & Zhao, Zhong, 2013. "The impact of training duration on employment outcomes: Evidence from LATE estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 487-490.
    10. Ham, John C. & Woutersen, Tiemen, 2011. "Calculating Confidence Intervals for Continuous and Discontinuous Functions of Estimated Parameters," IZA Discussion Papers 5816, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. Doerr, Annabelle & Strittmatter, Anthony, 2014. "Assignment Mechanisms, Selection Criteria, and the Effectiveness of Training Programs," Economics Working Paper Series 1421, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised May 2017.
    12. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Furdas, Marina & Sajons, Christoph, 2016. "End-of-year spending and the long-run employment effects of training programs for the unemployed," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-084, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    13. Chung Choe & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Sang-Jun Lee, 2015. "Do dropouts with longer training exposure benefit from training programs? Korean evidence employing methods for continuous treatments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 849-881, March.
    14. Seamus McGuinness & Philip J. O'Connell & Elish Kelly, 2014. "The Impact of Training Programme Type and Duration on the Employment Chances of the Unemployed in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 425-450.
    15. Paul, Marie & Dörr, Annabelle & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Kruppe, Thomas & Strittmatter, Anthony, 2013. "The Award of a Training Voucher and Labor Market Outcomes," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79918, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Paul, Marie & Fernandez-Kranz, Daniel & Rodriguez-Planas, Nuria, 2014. "The Wage Effects of Fixed-term Contract Employment Revisited: an Investigation Based on Social Security Records," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100324, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Aderonke Osikominu, 2016. "The dynamics of training programs for the unemployed," IZA World of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), pages 277-277, July.
    18. Gerd Heyer & Susanne Koch & Gesine Stephan & Joachim Wolff, 2012. "Evaluation der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik: Ein Sachstandsbericht für die Instrumentenreform 2011," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 45(1), pages 41-62, March.

    More about this item


    evaluation; active labor market programs; dynamic non-linear panel data models; MCMC;

    JEL classification:

    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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