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Employment outlooks: Why forecast the labour market and for whom?

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  • Neugart, Michael
  • Schömann, Klaus

Abstract

This essay argues that experience from more than three decades of labour market forecasting shows that forecasting helps greasing the wheels of labour markets. Applied correctly - not in the sense of old fashioned manpower planning models - sufficiently disaggregated employment outlooks support individuals in making better informed decisions on human capital investments, guide policy makers, and alert firms of upcoming skill shortages. That forecasts are necessary at all follows mainly from nowadays widely acknowledged market failure arguments.

Suggested Citation

  • Neugart, Michael & Schömann, Klaus, 2002. "Employment outlooks: Why forecast the labour market and for whom?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 02-206, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzblpe:fsi02206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heijke H., 1996. "Labour Market Information for Educational Investments," ROA Working Paper 002, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    2. Allen, Jim & van der Velden, Rolf, 2001. "Educational Mismatches versus Skill Mismatches: Effects on Wages, Job Satisfaction, and On-the-Job Search," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 434-452, July.
    3. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 1978. "Labour Turnover, Wage Structure, and Natural Unemployment," Munich Reprints in Economics 1255, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    4. Brunello, Giorgio & Lucifora, Claudio & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2001. "The Wage Expectations of European College Students," IZA Discussion Papers 299, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Snow, Arthur & Warren, Ronald S, Jr, 1990. "Human Capital Investment and Labor Supply under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 195-206, February.
    6. Borghans, Lex & De Grip, Andries & Heijke, Hans, 1996. "Labor market information and the choice of vocational specialization," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 59-74, February.
    7. John P Martin, 1998. "What Works Among Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries' Experiences," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Borghans, Lex & Green, Francis & Mayhew, Ken, 2001. "Skills Measurement and Economic Analysis: An Introduction," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 375-384, July.
    9. Rabe, Birgitta, 2000. "Wirkungen aktiver Arbeitsmarktpolitik: Evaluierungsergebnisse für Deutschland, Schweden, Dänemark und die Niederlande," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 00-208, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
    10. Haskel, Jonathan & Martin, Christopher, 1993. "Skill Shortages, Productivity Growth and Wage Inflation in UK Manufacturing," CEPR Discussion Papers 859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guzi, Martin & Kahanec, Martin & Kureková, Lucia Mýtna, 2015. "How Immigration Grease Is Affected by Economic, Institutional and Policy Contexts: Evidence from EU Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 9108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Ulrike Huemer & Helmut Mahringer & Gerhard Streicher, 2002. "Forecast of Occupational and Sectoral Employment Development in Upper Austria," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 75(11), pages 687-700, November.
    3. Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kureková, Lucia Mýtna & Biavaschi, Costanza, 2013. "Report No. 56: Labour Migration from EaP Countries to the EU – Assessment of Costs and Benefits and Proposals for Better Labour Market Matching," IZA Research Reports 56, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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