IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/wzblpe/fsi02206.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Employment outlooks: Why forecast the labour market and for whom?

Author

Listed:
  • Neugart, Michael
  • Schömann, Klaus

Abstract

This essay argues that experience from more than three decades of labour market forecasting shows that forecasting helps greasing the wheels of labour markets. Applied correctly - not in the sense of old fashioned manpower planning models - sufficiently disaggregated employment outlooks support individuals in making better informed decisions on human capital investments, guide policy makers, and alert firms of upcoming skill shortages. That forecasts are necessary at all follows mainly from nowadays widely acknowledged market failure arguments.

Suggested Citation

  • Neugart, Michael & Schömann, Klaus, 2002. "Employment outlooks: Why forecast the labour market and for whom?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 02-206, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzblpe:fsi02206
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/43906/1/349223807.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heijke H., 1996. "Labour Market Information for Educational Investments," ROA Working Paper 002, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    2. Allen, Jim & van der Velden, Rolf, 2001. "Educational Mismatches versus Skill Mismatches: Effects on Wages, Job Satisfaction, and On-the-Job Search," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 434-452, July.
    3. Zarkin, Gary A., 1983. "Cobweb versus rational expectations models : Lessons from the market for public school teachers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 87-95.
    4. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
    5. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 1978. "Labour Turnover, Wage Structure, and Natural Unemployment," Munich Reprints in Economics 1255, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    6. Brunello, Giorgio & Lucifora, Claudio & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2001. "The Wage Expectations of European College Students," IZA Discussion Papers 299, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    8. Julian R. Betts, 1996. "What Do Students Know about Wages? Evidence from a Survey of Undergraduates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 27-56.
    9. Borghans, Lex & De Grip, Andries & Heijke, Hans, 1996. "Labor market information and the choice of vocational specialization," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 59-74, February.
    10. Gary S. Becker, 1975. "Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education, Second Edition," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck75-1, March.
    11. Snow, Arthur & Warren, Ronald S, Jr, 1990. "Human Capital Investment and Labor Supply under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 195-206, February.
    12. Richard B. Freeman, 1976. "A Cobweb Model of the Supply and Starting Salary of New Engineers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 29(2), pages 236-248, January.
    13. John P Martin, 1998. "What Works Among Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries' Experiences," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Quinn, Robert & Price, Jamie, 1998. "The demand for medical education: an augmented human capital approach," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 337-347, June.
    15. Borghans, Lex & Green, Francis & Mayhew, Ken, 2001. "Skills Measurement and Economic Analysis: An Introduction," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 375-384, July.
    16. Haskel, Jonathan & Martin, Christopher, 1993. "Skill Shortages, Productivity Growth and Wage Inflation in UK Manufacturing," CEPR Discussion Papers 859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Rabe, Birgitta, 2000. "Wirkungen aktiver Arbeitsmarktpolitik: Evaluierungsergebnisse für Deutschland, Schweden, Dänemark und die Niederlande," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 00-208, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kureková, Lucia Mýtna & Biavaschi, Costanza, 2013. "Labour Migration from EaP Countries to the EU – Assessment of Costs and Benefits and Proposals for Better Labour Market Matching," IZA Research Reports 56, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Martin Guzi & Martin Kahanec & Lucia Mýtna Kureková, 2018. "How Immigration Grease Is Affected by Economic, Institutional, and Policy Contexts: Evidence from EU Labor Markets," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 213-243, May.
    3. BIAGI Federico & CASTANO MUNOZ Jonatan & DI PIETRO Giorgio, 2020. "Mismatch between Demand and Supply among higher education graduates in the EU," JRC Research Reports JRC120022, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Odozi, John Chiwuzulum & Ikhimalo, Odufa Patience & Awaebe, John & Agbugui, Marian, 2018. "Employment in the Nigerian Agricultural Labour Market: Barriers and Forecast," SocArXiv s9hgv, Center for Open Science.
    5. Ulrike Huemer & Helmut Mahringer & Gerhard Streicher, 2002. "Berufliche und sektorale Beschäftigungsprognose für Oberösterreich. Methoden und Ergebnisse des regionalen Berufs- und Sektormodells für Oberösterreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 75(11), pages 687-700, November.
    6. Kirui, Oliver K. & Kozicka, Marta, 2018. "Vocational Education and Training for Farmers and Other Actors in the Agri-Food Value Chain in Africa," Working Papers 274536, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    7. Majumder, Rajarshi & Mukherjee, Dipa & Ray, Jhilam, 2017. "Education and labour market: estimating future skill gap in India," MPRA Paper 85439, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Neugart & Jan Tuinstra, 2003. "Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 29-51, February.
    2. Júlia Varga, 2002. "Earnings Expectations and Higher-education Enrolment Decisions in Hungary," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 24(1), pages 121-152, July.
    3. Felderer, Bernhard & Drost, André, 2000. "Cyclical Occupational Choice in a Model with Rational Wage Expectations and Perfect Occupational Mobility," Economics Series 81, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    4. Neugart, Michael, 2000. "The supply of new engineers in Germany," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 00-209, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    5. Varga, Júlia, 2001. "A kereseti várakozások hatása az érettségizők továbbtanulási döntésére [The effects of earning expectations on the decisions of school leavers about further study]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 615-639.
    6. Schweri, Juerg & Hartog, Joop & Wolter, Stefan C., 2011. "Do students expect compensation for wage risk?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 215-227, April.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2003. "Unemployment in Britain: A European Success Story," CESifo Working Paper Series 981, CESifo.
    9. Christian Keuschnigg, 2008. "Corporate Taxation and the Welfare State," Working Papers 0813, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    10. Xia, Xiaoyu, 2016. "Forming wage expectations through learning: Evidence from college major choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PA), pages 176-196.
    11. Richard B. Freeman, 2007. "Labor Market Institutions Around the World," NBER Working Papers 13242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2004. "The Brussels-Frankfurt-Washington Consensus. Old and New Tradeoffs in Economics," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    13. Lucia Mateos & Ines Murillo & Maria del Mar Salinas, 2014. "Desajuste educativo y competencias cognitivas: efectos sobre los salarios," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 210(3), pages 85-108, September.
    14. Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski & Przemysław Włodarczyk, 2012. "Wpływ prawnej ochrony zatrudnienia na rynek pracy w warunkach negatywnego szoku ekonomicznego," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 11-12, pages 1-23.
    15. Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks and labor market dynamics in Japan," Working Papers SDES-2016-8, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised Jun 2016.
    16. Hilbert, Christoph & Mytzek, Ralf, 2002. "Strategische und methodische Ansatzpunkte zur Ermittlung des regionalen Qualifikationsbedarfs," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 02-211, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    17. Aurélien GAIMON & Vincent LAPEGUE & Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI & Noé N’SEMI & Frédéric REYNÈS & Maël THEULIERE, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle? a Theoretical and Empirical Appraisal," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    18. Michèle Belot & Jan C. van Ours, 2004. "Does the recent success of some OECD countries in lowering their unemployment rates lie in the clever design of their labor market reforms?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 621-642, October.
    19. Gersbach, Hans & Schniewind, Achim, 2001. "Awareness of General Equilibrium Effects and Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 394, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Henri L.F. de Groot & Richard Nahuis & Paul J.G. Tang & John Fitz Gerald, 2006. "Is the American Model Miss World? Choosing Between the Anglo-Saxon Model and a European-Style Alternative," Chapters, in: Susanne Mundschenk & Michael H. Stierle & Ulrike Stierle-von Schütz & Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag (ed.), Competitiveness and Growth in Europe, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Steve Nickell & Jan van Ours, 2000. "Why has Unemployment in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom Fallen so Much?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(s1), pages 201-220, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wzblpe:fsi02206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wzbbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.