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The supply of new engineers in Germany

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  • Neugart, Michael

Abstract

We estimate a labor supply model with German data on engineering enrollments and starting salaries. In one model agents have backward looking expectations, in the other rational expectations on future wages. Only the model with backward looking expectations delivers significant coefficients with signs in accordance with out theoretical model. Lagged enrollments as right hand side variables improve the fit of our model. The latter suggests the need for a theory of dynamic labor supply. Supply effects through changing sizes of cohorts do not explain variations in enrollments. In addition, we find that welfare improvements through the provision of information on future wages are considerable.

Suggested Citation

  • Neugart, Michael, 2000. "The supply of new engineers in Germany," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 00-209, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzblpe:fsi00209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zarkin, Gary A., 1983. "Cobweb versus rational expectations models : Lessons from the market for public school teachers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 87-95.
    2. Robert H. Topel, 1997. "Factor Proportions and Relative Wages: The Supply-Side Determinants of Wage Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 55-74, Spring.
    3. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Dropout and Enrollment Trends in the Postwar Period: What Went Wrong in the 1970s?," NBER Chapters,in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 439-482 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    5. Gary A. Zarkin, 1985. "Occupational Choice: An Application to the Market for Public School Teachers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 409-446.
    6. Borghans, Lex & De Grip, Andries & Heijke, Hans, 1996. "Labor market information and the choice of vocational specialization," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 59-74, February.
    7. Freeman, Richard B, 1975. "Legal "Cobwebs": A Recursive Model of the Market for New Lawyers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 171-179, May.
    8. Siow, Aloysius, 1984. "Occupational Choice under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 631-645, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2002. "The Determinants of the Migration Decision of IT-graduates from Pakistan: Empirical Evidence for the Design of a German "Green Card"," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-03a, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    2. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2002. "Die Determinanten der Migrationsentscheidung von IT- Hochschulabsolventen aus Pakistan -Empirische Befunde zur Ausgestaltung der deutschen "Green Card"," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-03, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    3. Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2003. "On the Migration Decision of IT-Graduates: A Two-Level Nested Logit Model," CIG Working Papers SP II 2003-22, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    4. Mahmood, Talat & Schömann, Klaus, 2009. "The decision to migrate: A simultaneous decision making approach," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Competition and Innovation SP II 2009-17, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
    5. Hilbert, Christoph & Mytzek, Ralf, 2002. "Strategische und methodische Ansatzpunkte zur Ermittlung des regionalen Qualifikationsbedarfs," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment FS I 02-211, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor supply; engineers; enrolments; occupational choice; naïve expectations; rational expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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