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On the Migration Decision of IT-Graduates: A Two-Level Nested Logit Model

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  • Talat Mahmood
  • Klaus Schömann

Abstract

Discrete choice models are used to investigate the individual’s choice among a discrete number of alternatives. The characteristics of each alternative, by means of a multinomial and nested multinomial models have been taken into account. Specifically, this study analyses the impact of choice specific characteristics (attributes) in a model of choice between different country locations. Individual IT-Graduates are assumed to choose a single type of move, stayhome or go-abroad, while simultaneously choosing a country of their choice. We demonstrate that a nested logit model is appropriate on both theoretical and empirical grounds. The sample consists of 1,500 IT-Graduates from Pakistan. The results show a high migration propensity for foreign destinations. While comparing the direct elasticities (at branch level) of home with the foreign destination types we observe that the economic factors such as self-employment and higher career position show greater effects than the sociopolitical as well as institutional factors (social networks and residence permit). A location comparison between the destinations Germany and USA/Canada (of the cross elasticities) shows that the magnitude of the values of elasticities are found to be higher for North American countries than for Germany. This suggests that IT-Graduates evaluate the factors self- employment, higher career positions, social networks and residence permit more important and significantly higher for North American destinations than for Germany. In addition we find a strong evidence for a competition between countries for high potentials from Pakistan. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Migrationsentscheidung von IT-Hochschulabsolventen: Ein zweistufiges Nested-Logitmodell) Mit Hilfe von Modellen für diskrete abhängige Variablen untersuchen wir die individuelle Auswahl aus einer Anzahl von Alternativen bei der Migration. Die Charaktaristika der einzelnen Alternativen im Zusammenhang von Multinomial bzw. Nestedmodellen sind berücksichtigt worden. Wir untersuchen den Einfluss von auswahlspezifischen Charaktaristika in einem Modell zur Auswahl zwischen verschiedenen Empfängerländern. IT-Hochschulabsolventen wählen ausgehend von zwei Alternativmöglichkeiten (Migration oder im Land bleiben), eine Alternative aus und wählen simultan ein bestimmtes Land. Es zeigt sich, dass ein "Nestedlogit-modell" sowohl in theoretischer als auch in empirischer Hinsicht für die Untersuchung am besten geeignet ist. Die Stichprobe besteht aus ca. 1500 IT-Hochschulabsolventen aus Pakistan. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine höhere Neigung auf, ein ausländisches Land zu wählen. Beim Vergleich der Direktelastizitäten für die erste Stufe beobacten wir für die Faktoren Selbstständigkeit und gute Karrieremöglichkiten einen höheren Einfluss als für die gesellschaftspolitische Determinaten (Soziale Netzwerke und Aufentshaltserlaubnis). Bei einem Standortvergleich zwischen Deutschland und dem klassischen Immigrationsland USA (basiert auf Kreuzelastizitäten) zeigt sich ferner, dass das Ausmaß der Elastisitätenwerte höher für Nordamerikanischen Länder ist als für Deutschland. Dies bedeutet, dass die ITHochschulabsolventen die Faktoren: die Selbstständigkeit, gute Karrieremöglichkeit, soziale Netzwerke und Aufenthaltserlaubnis für die Nordamerikanischen Länder signifikant höher bewerten als für Deutschland. Zusätzlich finden wir eine Evidenz für die Existenz von Wettbewerb zwischen Ländern für die IT-Hochschulabsolventen aus Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Talat Mahmood & Klaus Schömann, 2003. "On the Migration Decision of IT-Graduates: A Two-Level Nested Logit Model," CIG Working Papers SP II 2003-22, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  • Handle: RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:spii2003-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Nowotny, 2011. "Welfare Magnets, Taxation and the Location Decisions of Migrants to the EU," WIFO Working Papers 393, WIFO.
    2. Klaus Nowotny, 2011. "AFLA Arbeitskräftemobilität und Fachkräftebedarf nach der Liberalisierung des österreichischen Arbeitsmarktes. Migrations- und Pendelpotentiale nach Ende der Übergangsfristen für die Arbeitskräftefrei," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41563, September.
    3. Peter Huber & Klaus Nowotny & Julia Bock-Schappelwein, 2010. "Qualification Structure, Over- and Under-qualification of the Foreign Born in Austria and the EU," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41226, September.
    4. Klaus Nowotny & Robert Hierländer, 2009. "FAMO Fachkräftemonitoring. Regelmäßige Erhebung des Angebots und des Bedarfs an Fachkräften in der Grenzregion Ostösterreichs mit der Slowakei. FAMO I: Migrations- und Pendelpotentiale in Wien und den," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37422, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international migration; push- and pull factors; nested model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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