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Une évaluation empirique de la rationalité des étudiants et étudiantes belges (1954-1987)


  • Jean Luc De Meulemeester


[fre] Une évaluation empirique de la rationalité des étudiants et étudiantes belges (1954-1987), . par Jean-Luc de Meulemeester.. . Dans cet article, on évalue le degré de rationalité économique des jeunes belges qui se sont engagés dans des études universitaires de 1954 à 1987. On estime pour ce faire un modèle de toile d'araignée à la Freeman (1989), sous diverses hypothèses quant à la formation des anticipations. Un modèle récursif avec anticipations adaptatives et ajustement partiel est retenu. Les hommes ont des anticipations plus statiques que les femmes ; les anticipations ne sont pas rationnelles. On conclut en notant le caractère irréversible de l'investissement éducatif, dans un contexte de très haute incertitude. L'absence d'anticipations rationnelles ne peut dès lors permettre de conclure à une rationalité faible des agents. [ger] Schätzung von Gewinnen mittels Paneldaten: Endogenität des Humankapitals und Effekte der Selektion, . von Yves Guillotin und Patrick Sevestre.. . In diesem Artikel sollen zwei der Schwierigkeiten analysiert werden, die auftreten, wenn man empirische Tests von Gewinnfunktionen mittels Paneldaten durchzuführen wünscht. Erörtert werden somit zum einen die Verzerrungen, die sich aus der Korrelation zwischen dem ursprünglichen Humankapital, der Erfahrung und den nicht beobachteten individuellen Merkmalen (persönliche Fähigkeiten, innerhalb der Familie erworbene Kenntnisse usw.) ergeben, sowie andererseits die Effekte der Datenzylindrierung, wie die des Prozesses der Selektion der Individuen, die der Stichprobe angehören. Wir veranschaulichen diese beiden Problème durch verschiedene Schätzungen einer Gewinnfunktion, die man mit unterschiedlichen Verfahren anhand zylinderartig und nicht-zylinderartig ausgestalteter Stichproben aus dem Panel der jährlichen Lohndaten (DAS-Panel) des französischen Instituts für Statistik und Wirtschaftsstudien INSEE erhält. Aus diesen Schätzungen geht hervor, daß die Nichtberücksichtigung dieser Modell-
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Suggested Citation

  • Jean Luc De Meulemeester, 1994. "Une évaluation empirique de la rationalité des étudiants et étudiantes belges (1954-1987)," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1575, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/1575

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    2. Levhari, David & Weiss, Yoram, 1974. "The Effect of Risk on the Investment in Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 950-963, December.
    3. Freeman, Richard B, 1975. "Legal "Cobwebs": A Recursive Model of the Market for New Lawyers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 171-179, May.
    4. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 352-352.
    5. Siow, Aloysius, 1984. "Occupational Choice under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 631-645, May.
    6. Heiner, Ronald A., 1989. "The origin of predictable dynamic behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 233-257, October.
    7. Freeman, Richard B, 1975. "Supply and Salary Adjustments to the Changing Science Manpower Market: Physics, 1948-1973," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(1), pages 27-39, March.
    8. Jess Benhabib & Richard H. Day, 1981. "Rational Choice and Erratic Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 459-471.
    9. Snow, Arthur & Warren, Ronald S, Jr, 1990. "Human Capital Investment and Labor Supply under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 195-206, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Claude DIEBOLT & Magali JAOUL-GRAMMARE, 2019. "The Cliometric Model of Glutting: An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers of BETA 2019-01, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    2. Claude Diebolt & Bachir El Murr, 2004. "A cobweb model of higher education and labour market dynamics," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(3-4), pages 409-430.
    3. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2006. "Cliometrics of Academic Careers and the Impact of Infrequent Large Shocks in Germany before 1945," Working Papers 06-01, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

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