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The employment dynamics of different population groups over the business cycle

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  • Winkler, Roland
  • Bredemeier, Christian

Abstract

We examine differences in employment dynamics across population groups using Bayesian vector autoregressions. We document that groups who are particularly strongly affected by business-cycle fluctuations (males, young people, non-whites, the less educated, and workers in blue-collar occupations) also tend to be affected early in the build-up of a boom or bust. We further identify the drivers of the different cyclicalities across population groups. Supply shocks seem to be most important for the heterogeneous employment fluctuations and particularly for the early effects of recessions and booms on the most affected groups. Dynamics in sectoral activity and in hiring rates can help to understand our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkler, Roland & Bredemeier, Christian, 2016. "The employment dynamics of different population groups over the business cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145687, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145687
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    Cited by:

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    3. Kuhelika De & Ryan A. Compton & Daniel C. Giedeman & Gary A. Hoover, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Racial Labour Market Differences in the U.S," CESifo Working Paper Series 8004, CESifo.
    4. Hyunwoo Kim, 2023. "The microfoundation of macroeconomic populism: The effects of economic inequality on public inflation aversion," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 65-96, March.
    5. Elder, John & Payne, James E., 2023. "Racial and ethnic disparities in unemployment and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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