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Population aging in healthcare - a minor issue? Evidence from Switzerland

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  • Colombier, Carsten

Abstract

Our study shows that population aging substantially affects healthcare expenditure (HCE). This conclusion supports the popular, but recently strongly contested, view that the coming population aging will threaten the fiscal sustainability of health systems. We contribute to this debate, first by estimating the determinants of Swiss healthcare expenditure (HCE) with outlier-robust dynamic regressions, and second, by projecting Swiss HCE based on the estimates produced and new population scenarios. Medical advances and GDP per capita also play a decisive role. Governments can mitigate HCE growth by improving the health status of the population and by stimulating cost-effective and productive medical advances.

Suggested Citation

  • Colombier, Carsten, 2016. "Population aging in healthcare - a minor issue? Evidence from Switzerland," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 16-3, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:uoccpe:163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    healthcare expenditure; population ageing; fiscal sustainability; advances in medical technology; robust MM estimator; long-term projections; bootstrap simulations; Gesundheitsausgaben; Alterung; finanzielle Nachhaltigkeit; medizinisch-technischer Fortschritt; robuster MM Schätzer; langfristige Ausgabenprojektionen; Bootstrapsimulationen;

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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