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Population ageing in healthcare – a minor issue? Evidence from Switzerland

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  • Carsten Colombier

Abstract

Our study shows that population ageing is a relevant determinant of healthcare expenditure (HCE). This conclusion supports the popular, but recently strongly contested, view that the coming population ageing will threaten the fiscal sustainability of health systems. We contribute to this debate, first by estimating the determinants of Swiss HCE with outlier-robust dynamic regressions, and second, by projecting Swiss HCE based on the estimates produced and new population scenarios. Medical advances and GDP per capita also play a decisive role. Governments can mitigate HCE growth by improving the health status of the population and by stimulating cost-effective and productive medical advances.

Suggested Citation

  • Carsten Colombier, 2018. "Population ageing in healthcare – a minor issue? Evidence from Switzerland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(15), pages 1746-1760, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:15:p:1746-1760
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1374538
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brändle, Thomas & Colombier, Carsten & Lerch, Benjamin, 2025. "Determinants of Healthcare Expenditure: Evidence from Switzerland between 1960-2022," Working papers 2025/06, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    2. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz, 2021. "The “red herring” after 20 years: ageing and health care expenditures," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(5), pages 661-667, July.
    3. Carsten Colombier & Thomas Braendle, 2018. "Healthcare expenditure and fiscal sustainability: evidence from Switzerland," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 279-301.
    4. Michael Stucki, 2021. "Factors related to the change in Swiss inpatient costs by disease: a 6-factor decomposition," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(2), pages 195-221, March.
    5. Arata, Linda & Fabrizi, Enrico & Sckokai, Paolo, 2020. "A worldwide analysis of trend in crop yields and yield variability: Evidence from FAO data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 190-208.
    6. Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene & Marin, Alexander O.K. & Menon, Seetha & Søgaard, Jes, 2024. "Aging populations and expenditures on health," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    7. Santos, João Vasco & Martins, Filipa Santos & Pestana, Joana & Souza, Júlio & Freitas, Alberto & Cylus, Jonathan, 2023. "Should we adjust health expenditure for age structure on health systems efficiency? A worldwide analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118298, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Colombier, Carsten & Braendle, Thomas, 2022. "Healthcare expenditure projections up to 2050: ageing and the COVID-19 crisis," MPRA Paper 120659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Viktor von Wyl, 2019. "Proximity to death and health care expenditure increase revisited: A 15-year panel analysis of elderly persons," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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