IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/2021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bilateral investment treaties do work: Until they don't

Author

Listed:
  • Aisbett, Emma
  • Busse, Matthias
  • Nunnenkamp, Peter

Abstract

The recent boom of investor-state disputes filed under international investment agreements has fueled a controversial academic and policy debate. Despite its importance, there has been very little work to date on the impacts of compensation claims by investors on FDI flows to the responding host country. We study this question using a comprehensive dataset of FDI flows, compensation claims and bilateral investment treaty (BIT) participation. We allow for differential impacts of compensation claims against a host on inward FDI flows from BIT-partner and non-partner countries. Focusing on these differences allows us both to shed new light on how investment treaties might influence investor behavior, as well as allowing us to control for unobserved changes in the host-country investment climate. We find that BITs stimulate bilateral FDI flows from partner countries - but only so long as the host country has not had a claim brought against it to arbitration. When a host faces a claim, FDI from sources with a BIT in place falls significantly more than that from unprotected sources. Furthermore, after the host has faced a claim, the entry into force of new BITs is no longer associated with increased FDI flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Aisbett, Emma & Busse, Matthias & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "Bilateral investment treaties do work: Until they don't," Kiel Working Papers 2021, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/125937/1/846070405.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Skovgaard Poulsen,Lauge N., 2015. "Bounded Rationality and Economic Diplomacy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107119536.
    3. Emma Aisbett & Larry Karp & Carol Mcausland, 2010. "Police Powers, Regulatory Takings and the Efficient Compensation of Domestic and Foreign Investors," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(274), pages 367-383, September.
    4. Aisbett Emma & Karp Larry & McAusland Carol, 2010. "Compensation for Indirect Expropriation in International Investment Agreements: Implications of National Treatment and Rights to Invest," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-35, December.
    5. Erdal Yalcin & Joachim Karl & Sebastian Benz & Feodora Teti, 2015. "UNCTAD World Investment Report 2015: Developments in Foreign Direct Investment," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(20), pages 48-56, October.
    6. Aisbett, Emma, 2007. "Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment: Correlation versus Causation," CUDARE Working Papers 7188, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    7. Lauge N. Skovgaard Poulsen & Emma Aisbett, 2011. "When the Claim Hits: Bilateral Investment Treaties and Bounded Rational Learning," Crawford School Research Papers 1105, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Berger, Axel & Busse, Matthias & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Roy, Martin, 2011. "More stringent BITs, less ambiguous effects on FDI? Not a bit!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 270-272, September.
    9. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237, December.
    10. Neumayer, Eric & Spess, Laura, 2005. "Do bilateral investment treaties increase foreign direct investment to developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1567-1585, October.
    11. Allee, Todd & Peinhardt, Clint, 2011. "Contingent Credibility: The Impact of Investment Treaty Violations on Foreign Direct Investment," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 401-432, July.
    12. Jennifer Tobin & Susan Rose-Ackerman, 2011. "When BITs have some bite: The political-economic environment for bilateral investment treaties," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-32, March.
    13. Miceli, Thomas J & Segerson, Kathleen, 1994. "Regulatory Takings: When Should Compensation Be Paid?," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(2), pages 749-776, June.
    14. Axel Berger & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2013. "Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 247-275, June.
    15. Peter Egger & Valeria Merlo, 2012. "BITs Bite: An Anatomy of the Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on Multinational Firms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(4), pages 1240-1266, December.
    16. Mary Hallward-Driemeier, 2003. "Do bilateral investment treaties attract foreign direct investment? Only a bit - and they could bite," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3121, The World Bank.
    17. James R. Markusen, 2001. "Commitment to Rules on Investment: The Developing Countries’ Stake," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 287-302, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nunnenkamp Peter, 2017. "Streitschlichtung im Rahmen internationaler Investitionsabkommen: Viel Lärm um (fast) nichts?," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 61-79, April.
    2. Josef C. Brada & Zdenek Drabek & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2021. "Does Investor Protection Increase Foreign Direct Investment? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 34-70, February.
    3. Julian Donaubauer & Eric Neumayer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2018. "Winning or losing in investor‐to‐state dispute resolution: The role of arbitrator bias and experience," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 892-916, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emma Aisbett & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2018. "Bilateral investment treaties as deterrents of host-country discretion: the impact of investor-state disputes on foreign direct investment in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(1), pages 119-155, February.
    2. Josef C. Brada & Zdenek Drabek & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2021. "Does Investor Protection Increase Foreign Direct Investment? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 34-70, February.
    3. Monika Sztajerowska, 2021. "International Investment Agreements, Double-Taxation Treaties and Multinational Activity: The (Heterogeneous) Effects of Binding," Working Papers halshs-03265057, HAL.
    4. Monika Sztajerowska, 2021. "International Investment Agreements, Double-Taxation Treaties and Multinational Activity: The (Heterogeneous) Effects of Binding," PSE Working Papers halshs-03265057, HAL.
    5. Nunnenkamp Peter, 2016. "Demokratie und internationale Investitionsabkommen: (Überraschende) Zusammenhänge und (lückenhafte) Erklärungen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 364-382, December.
    6. Simon Hartmann & Rok Spruk, 2023. "The impact of unilateral BIT terminations on FDI: Quasi-experimental evidence from India," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 259-296, April.
    7. Cao, Thi Hong Vinh & Lu, Thi Thu Trang & Nguyen, Thi Viet Hoa, 2014. "The Impact of Heterogeneous Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT) on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to Vietnam," Papers 916, World Trade Institute.
    8. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2017. "Heterogeneous effects of bilateral investment treaties," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 631-656, November.
    9. Horn, Henrik & Tangerås, Thomas, 2016. "Economics and Politics of International Investment Agreements," Working Paper Series 1140, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    10. Li, Chen, 2016. "Signing a Bilateral Investment Treaty - A tradeoff between investment protection and regulation," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145505, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Frank Stähler, 2023. "An optimal investor-state dispute settlement mechanism," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 1-16, January.
    12. Eric Neumayer & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2016. "Are stricter investment rules contagious? Host country competition for foreign direct investment through international agreements," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 177-213, February.
    13. Arjan Lejour & Maria Salfi, 2015. "The Regional Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on Foreign Direct Investment," CPB Discussion Paper 298, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Colen, Liesbeth & Persyn, Damiaan & Guariso, Andrea, 2016. "Bilateral Investment Treaties and FDI: Does the Sector Matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 193-206.
    15. Eichler, Stefan & Nauerth, Jannik A., 2021. "Bilateral investment treaties and sovereign default risk," CEPIE Working Papers 04/21, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    16. Xiong, Tingting, 2022. "The Effect of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) on the extensive and intensive margins of exports," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-79.
    17. Liesbeth Colen & Damiaan Persyn & Andrea Guariso, 2014. "What type of FDI is attracted by bilateral investment treaties?," LICOS Discussion Papers 34614, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    18. Jay Dixon & Paul Alexander Haslam, 2016. "Does the Quality of Investment Protection Affect FDI Flows to Developing Countries? Evidence from Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1080-1108, August.
    19. Fangjin Ye, 2020. "The impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on collective labor rights in developing countries," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 899-921, October.
    20. Axel Berger & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2013. "Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 247-275, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bilateral investment treaties; investor-state dispute settlement; compensation claims; protected and unprotected investors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.