Estimation issues in disaggregate gravity trade models
French (2011) can analytically show that the standard Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) gravity trade model is only correctly specified for disaggregate data; gravity trade model analysis should be done at product level and then estimation results should be reaggregated. If however gravity trade model analysis is to be done at product level then also estimation issues in disaggregate gravity trade models should come to the fore. As is shown, previous estimators suffer under different statistical problems. This paper proposes a zero-in ated Poisson Quasi-Likelihood (PQL) and a Gamma Two-Part Model (G2PM) as reliable alternatives. Estimated within a Generalised Estimating Equation (GEE) framework, both estimators are consistent and have more or less conservative test statistics. Further, for model selection a Quasi-Likelihood under the Independence Model Criterion (QIC) is recommend since this statistic is conform with GEE approaches. Both estimators PQL and G2PM and the model selection technique QIC should become standard tools for disaggregate gravity trade model estimation.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Platz der Göttinger Sieben 5, D-37073 Göttingen|
Web page: http://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/18500.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Martijn Burger & Frank van Oort & Gert-Jan Linders, 2009.
"On the Specification of the Gravity Model of Trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-inflated Estimation,"
Spatial Economic Analysis,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 167-190.
- Burger, M.J. & van Oort, F.G. & Linders, G.J.M., 2009. "On the Specification of the Gravity Model of Trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-Inflated Estimation," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-003-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Russell H. Hillberry, 2002. "Aggregation bias, compositional change, and the border effect," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 517-530, August.
- Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2009.
"Consistent estimation of zero-inflated count models,"
SOI - Working Papers
0908, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Aug 2011.
- Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2013. "Consistent Estimation Of Zero‐Inflated Count Models," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 673-686, 06.
- Sun, Kai & Henderson, Daniel J. & Kumbhakar, Subal C., 2010.
"Biases in approximating log production,"
27527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- James E. Anderson & Yoto V. Yotov, 2010.
"The Changing Incidence of Geography,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2157-86, December.
- James E. Anderson & Yoto V. Yotov, 2008. "The Changing Incidence of Geography," NBER Working Papers 14423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Anderson & Yoto V. Yotov, 2008. "The Changing Incidence of Geography," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 698, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007.
"Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes,"
NBER Working Papers
12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Scholarly Articles 3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kohler, Wilhelm K., .
"Modelling the Extensive Margin of World Trade: New Evidence on GATT and WTO Membership,"
Chapters in Economics,
University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Gabriel Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2010. "Modelling the Extensive Margin of World Trade: New Evidence on GATT and WTO Membership," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1430-1469, November.
- Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kohler, Wilhelm K., 2010. "Modelling the extensive margin of world trade: New evidence on GATT and WTO membership," Munich Reprints in Economics 20605, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2011. "An assessment of the Europe agreements' effects on bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-279, February.
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984.
"Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-20, May.
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1982. "Pseudo maximum lilelihood methods : applications to poisson models," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8203, CEPREMAP.
- William H. Greene, 1994. "Accounting for Excess Zeros and Sample Selection in Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models," Working Papers 94-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Mullahy, John, 1998. "Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-281, June.
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1981.
"Pseudo maximum likelihood methods : theory,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:daredp:1107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.