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Leverage and Deepening Business Cycle Skewness

Author

Listed:
  • Jensen, Henrik

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Petrella, Ivan

    (University of Warwick)

  • Ravn, Soren

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Santoro, Emiliano

    (University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

We document that the U.S. and other G7 economies have been characterized by an increasingly negative business cycle asymmetry over the last three decades. This finding can be explained by the concurrent increase in the financial leverage of households and firms. To support this view, we devise and estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model with collateralized borrowing and occasionally binding credit constraints. Improved access to credit increases the likelihood that financial constraints become non-binding in the face of expansionary shocks, allowing agents to freely substitute intertemporally. Contractionary shocks, on the other hand, are further amplified by drops in collateral values, since constraints remain binding. As a result, booms become progressively smoother and more prolonged than busts. Finally, in line with recent empirical evidence, financially-driven expansions lead to deeper contractions, as compared with equally-sized non-financial expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jensen, Henrik & Petrella, Ivan & Ravn, Soren & Santoro, Emiliano, 2019. "Leverage and Deepening Business Cycle Skewness," EMF Research Papers 21, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:wrkemf:21
    as

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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/finance/mpf/working-papers/emf_wp_20.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2003. "On detrending and cyclical asymmetry," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 271-289.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Leverage and Deepening Business Cycle Skewness
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2019-05-13 13:27:44
    2. Leverage and deepening business cycle skewness
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2017-10-17 05:29:42

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Isabel Cairo & Jae Sim, 2017. "Income Inequality, Financial Crises and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 1433, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Peter J. Boettke & Alexander W. Salter & Daniel J. Smith, 2018. "Money as meta-rule: Buchanan’s constitutional economics as a foundation for monetary stability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 529-555, September.
    3. Marcus Ingholt, 2018. "LTV vs. DTI Constraints: When Did They Bind, and How Do They Interact?," 2018 Meeting Papers 866, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," Working Paper Series 2020-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 26962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit constraints; business cycles; skewness; deleveraging; JEL Classification Numbers: E32 ; E44;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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