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Identifying the Impact of Exposure to Armed Conflict on Individual Preferences and Field Behavior : Evidence from Turkish Draft Veterans

Author

Listed:
  • Kıbrıs, Arzu

    (University of Warwick, Department of Politics and International Studies.)

  • Cesur, Resul

    (University of Connecticut, IZA & NBER)

  • Uler, Neslihan

    (University of Maryland and University of Michigan)

  • Yıldırım, Sadullah

    (Marmara University)

Abstract

This research identifies the causal impact of exposure to armed conflict on risk, ambiguity and time preferences and related field behaviors for the average male randomly picked from the population. Our study builds on a natural experiment, engendered by the mandatory conscription system and the long-running civil conflict in Turkey, with a survey design that measures preferences through lab-in-he-field-experiments. The setting we explore allows us to analyze the change in preferences without confoundment by community-level effects of conflict. Results show that conflict exposure increases risk tolerance, ambiguity neutrality, patience and time consistency. Tracing the effects on real life behaviors, we find that while conflict exposure leads to an increase in entrepreneurial activity, it has no significant impacts on risky health behaviors such as being overweight, smoking, or daily drinking. Evidence highlights post-traumatic growth in the form of elevated agency as a novel explanation for the observed changes in preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Kıbrıs, Arzu & Cesur, Resul & Uler, Neslihan & Yıldırım, Sadullah, 2025. "Identifying the Impact of Exposure to Armed Conflict on Individual Preferences and Field Behavior : Evidence from Turkish Draft Veterans," QAPEC Discussion Papers 27, Quantitative and Analytical Political Economy Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:wqapec:27
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Violence ; Artefactual Field Experiment ; Risk Preferences ; Ambiguity Preferences ; Time Preferences. JEL Codes: C90 ; C93 ; D01 ; D74 ; D81 ; I01 ; O17 ; Z13;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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