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Political models of macroeconomic policy and fiscal reform

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  • Alesina, Alberto

Abstract

The author explains how recent developments in political economics improve our understanding of macroeconomic policy - especially the timing, design, and likelihood of stabilization's success through monetary and fiscal reform. The author reviews the literature on political business cycles and emphasizes several issues involving the relationship between the timing of elections and the timing of macroeconomic policies and outcomes. He also addresses how models can be useful in studying non-democratic systems. Two forces are crucial factors in both democratic and dictatorial systems, although they may manifest themselves differently: (1) the policymakers'incentive to retain power; and (2) society's polarization and the degree of social conflict. The author then analyzes why economic stabilization is delayed, even when it is obvious that sooner or later a stabilization program will have to be adopted. Some points made in the paper follow. Certain institutional characteristics make quick and successful stabilization more or less likely. The more unequal the distribution of stabilization's costs, the more likely that stabilization will be delayed. An increase in the cost of postponing stabilization reduces the delay. Political institutions that make it easier for small interest groups to veto legislation make delay more likely. If political and economic resources are unequally distributed, and it is obvious which group is stronger and has resources to wait longer, a war of attrition ends immediately, as there is no uncertainty about who will win it. Delay is more likely when information about who will bear the cost of delays is uncertain or unevenly distributed. Delay is also more likely when there is agreement about the need for fiscal change but a political stalemate about distribution - about how the burden of higher taxes or spending cuts should be allocated. Stabilization usually occurs when there is political consolidation. The burden of stabilization is sometimes unequal, with the politically weaker group (often the lower classes) bearing a larger burden (often regressive measures). If it is in the interest of the current government to do nothing for fear of failure because of government incompetence, the public may have no incentive to vote for the opposition because the opposition may also do nothing; the crucial factor here is how aware the government is of its own incompetence and thus its reasons for not attempting reform. Successful stabilization usually comes after several failed attempts, and the successful program is often very much like one that failed.

Suggested Citation

  • Alesina, Alberto, 1992. "Political models of macroeconomic policy and fiscal reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 970, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:970
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 317-335, December.
    2. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:129:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Michał Mackiewicz, 2006. "Przyczyny deficytu finansów publicznych w świetle nowej ekonomii politycznej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 1-22.
    4. Ball, Richard & Rausser, Gordon, 1995. "Governance structures and the durability of economic reforms: Evidence from inflation stabilizations," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 897-912, June.
    5. Inayat Ullah Mangla, 2011. "Reconstructing the Performance of Pakistan’s Political Economy: Another Paradigm," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 30-70, September.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Are Monetary Rules and Reforms Complements or Substitutes? A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," Working Papers 129, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    7. Börner, Kira, 2004. "Political Economy Reasons for Government Inertia: The Role of Interest Groups in the Case of Access to Medicines," Discussion Papers in Economics 313, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    8. Vladimir Mau & Konstantin Yanovskiy, 2002. "Political and Legal Factors of Economic Growth in Russian Regions," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 321-339.
    9. Boerner, Kira, 2005. "Having Everyone in the Boat May Sink it - Interest Group Involvement and Policy Reforms," Discussion Papers in Economics 730, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    10. Belke, Ansgar H. & Herz, Bernhard & Vogel, Lukas, 2005. "Structural Reforms and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1798, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Indra de Soysa & Eric Neumayer, 2005. "Disarming Fears of Diversity: Ethnic Heterogeneity and State Militarization, 1988–2002," Public Economics 0503008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2005.
    12. Kalu Ojah & Stella Muhanji & Odongo Kodongo, 2022. "Infrastructure threshold and economic growth in Africa: do income level and geography matter?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1587-1627, August.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Beyond Trade – Is Reform Effort Affected by the Exchange Rate Regime? A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 29-58.
    14. Beetsma, Roel & Romp, Ward E & van Maurik, Ron, 2017. "What Drives Pension Reform Measures in the OECD? Evidence based on a New Comprehensive Dataset and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 12313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Alexander Galetovic & Ricardo Sanhueza, 1996. "Citizens, Autocrats, and Plotters: A Model and New Evidence on Coups D'État," Documentos de Trabajo 11, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    16. Joanna Działo, 2007. "Wpływ czynników politycznych na instrumenty i efekty polityki gospodarczej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 25-44.
    17. Reich, Michael R., 1995. "The politics of health sector reform in developing countries: three cases of pharmaceutical policy," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 47-77.

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