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Political instability, policy uncertainty, and economic growth: An empirical investigation

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  • Abdiweli Ali

Abstract

This paper elaborates upon the effect of political stability on economic growth using a novel approach. Unlike the literature on growth that emphasizes the turnover of decision makers, this paper focuses on the volatility of economic policies as the relevant indicator of stability. The literature on growth ignores the microeconomic instability associated with frequent changes of government policies. The empirical results of this paper indicate that the effect of political instability on economic growth is not conclusive. Most of the commonly used proxies for political instability have failed to explain growth differences across countries. The political instability indices have no significant effect on growth when a reasonable set of core variables is also included in the regression equation. The results also show that almost all of the policy uncertainty variables are significantly and negatively correlated with economic growth. However, the instability of economic policies has no significant impact on the accumulation of capital. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2001

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  • Abdiweli Ali, 2001. "Political instability, policy uncertainty, and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(1), pages 87-106, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:29:y:2001:i:1:p:87-106
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02299934
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    Cited by:

    1. Berggren, Niclas & Bergh, Andreas & Bjørnskov, Christian, 2012. "The growth effects of institutional instability," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 187-224, June.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-547 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and GCC stock markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1822-1834.
    4. Li, Xiaoying & Liu, Xiaming, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: An Increasingly Endogenous Relationship," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 393-407, March.
    5. Janvier Nkurunziza, 2004. "How long can inflation tax compensate for the loss Wof government revenue in war economics? Evidence from Burundi," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2004-19, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Nahil Boussiga & Ezzeddine Abaoub, 2015. "How Does Government Policy Affect Equity Risk Premium?," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 4(2), pages 65-75.
    7. Janvier Nkurunziza, 2004. "How Long Can Inflation Tax Compensate For The Loss Of Government Revenue In War Economies? Evidence From Burundi," Development and Comp Systems 0409065, EconWPA.

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