IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate in Tanzania

  • Li, Ying
  • Rowe, Francis
Registered author(s):

    Tanzania is well placed to receive a significant increase in aid inflows in coming years. Despite the potential for the additional aid inflows to raise income levels in the country, increasing them may bring about structural changes in the economy that may be unwelcome. One such change is an appreciation of the real exchange rate that leads to a contraction of traditional export sectors and a loss of export competitiveness. This paper employs a reduced-form equilibrium real exchange rate approach to explain movements in Tanzania's real effective exchange in recent decades. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate. The authors find that the long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is influenced by terms of trade movements, the government's trade liberalization efforts, and aid inflows. Positive terms-of-trade movements are associated with an appreciation, periods of improving trade liberalization are associated with a depreciation, and increases in aid inflows are associated with a depreciation in the real effective exchange rate. Although the last result is non-standard, it is not empirically unique and does have theoretical underpinnings. A detailed analysis of this relationship over the last decade shows that the Bank of Tanzania's response to aid inflows is likely the main reason for the finding.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2007/12/19/000158349_20071219141944/Rendered/PDF/wps4456.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4456.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4456
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
    Phone: (202) 477-1234
    Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi and Brian Kahn, 1997. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1997-16, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 1987. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries," UCLA Economics Working Papers 442, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Mohsin S. Khan, 2005. "Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 2.
    4. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2006. "Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance, and Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(2), pages 261-290.
    5. Christopher Adam & David Bevan, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Revenue Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Series Working Papers 9, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 1988. "Real and Monetary Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    8. Menzie Chinn, 2006. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 115-143, January.
    9. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Soto, Raimundo, 1994. "Capital flows and long-term equilibrium real exchange rates in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1306, The World Bank.
    10. Ronald Macdonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004. "Estimation Of The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 282-304, 06.
    11. Luci Ellis, 2001. "Measuring the Real Exchange Rate: Pitfalls and Practicalities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Nilsson, Kristian, 1999. "Alternative Measures of the Swedish Real Effective Exchange Rate," Working Paper 68, National Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2008. "Foreign Aid Inflows And The Real Exchange Rate In The Cfa Franc Zone," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 37-52.
    14. Kiguel, Miguel & O'Connell, Stephen A, 1995. "Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 21-52, February.
    15. Christopher Adam & David Bevan, 2003. "Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2003-02, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Mwanza Nkusu, 2004. "Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries; Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses," IMF Working Papers 04/49, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Ghose, Devajyoti & Kharas, Homi, 1993. "International competitiveness, the demand for exports and real effective exchange rates in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 377-398, August.
    18. White, Howard & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 1992. "Exchange rates, trade liberalization and aid: The Sri Lankan experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1471-1480, October.
    19. Howard White, 2005. "Dollars, dialogue and development: an evaluation of Swedish program aid," Development and Comp Systems 0511012, EconWPA.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country; The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 03/93, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Volker Treichel, 2005. "Tanzania's Growth Process and Success in Reducing Poverty," IMF Working Papers 05/35, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.