IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-20-00487.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A cross-country analysis of the determinants of the real effective exchange rate in fifteen Sub-Saharan African countries

Author

Listed:
  • Zameelah Khan Jaffur

    (University of Mauritius)

  • Boopen Seetanah

    (University of Mauritius)

  • Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia

    (University of Mauritius)

Abstract

This paper employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine the long-run and short-run determinants of the real effective exchange rate in fifteen Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using annual data spanning from 1980 to 2015. Not surprisingly, the findings show that the determinants vary from one country to another. Terms of trade, GDP per capita, net foreign assets and trade openness are found to be key factors that cause fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of most of these countries in the long-run. Whereas in the short-run, the drivers of the real effective exchange rate differ from country to country. We further observe that there is also a difference in the speed that each country adjusts back to the equilibrium level of their real effective exchange rate whenever there is a shock in the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Zameelah Khan Jaffur & Boopen Seetanah & Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia, 2020. "A cross-country analysis of the determinants of the real effective exchange rate in fifteen Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1686-1697.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-20-00487
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2020/Volume40/EB-20-V40-I2-P145.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    2. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2015. "The Determinants of Long-run Real Exchange Rate in South Africa: A Fundamental Equilibrium Approach," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 319-336, September.
    3. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    5. Waheed IBRAHIM, 2016. "Econometric analysis of determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria (1960-2015)," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 9(1), pages 62-80, June.
    6. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Post-Print halshs-00276402, HAL.
    7. Mr. Atsushi Iimi, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana," IMF Working Papers 2006/140, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.
    9. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real Effective Exchange Rates for 178 Countries: a New Database," Working Papers 1201, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    10. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-3.
    11. Ridha Nouira & Khalid Sekkat, 2015. "What determines the extent of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 141, pages 135-151.
    12. Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On The Rand: Determinants Of The South African Exchange Rate," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 425-441, September.
    13. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A & Soto, Raimundo, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Countries," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(3), pages 74-120, Supplemen.
    14. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Soto, Raimundo, 1994. "Capital flows and long-term equilibrium real exchange rates in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1306, The World Bank.
    15. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Mésalignements du franc CFA et influence de la monnaie ancre," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 91-119.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    17. Ronald Macdonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004. "Estimation Of The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate For South Africa1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 282-304, June.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian, 1988. "Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 311-341, November.
    19. Lordina Amoah & Meshach Jesse Aziakpono, 2017. "Exchange Rate Behavior in Ghana: Is there a Misalignment?," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(4), pages 261-276, October-D.
    20. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Modelling long-run equilibrium exchange rate in Botswana," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 268-285, September.
    21. Mohamed Amine Boutabba, 2014. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Post-Print hal-02877966, HAL.
    22. Boutabba, Mohamed Amine, 2014. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 33-41.
    23. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, October.
    24. Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2008. "Foreign Aid Inflows And The Real Exchange Rate In The Cfa Franc Zone," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 37-52.
    25. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Kaltani, Linda & Soto, Raimundo, 2012. "Aid, Real Exchange Rate Misalignment, and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 681-700.
    26. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Mr. Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium: Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/090, International Monetary Fund.
    27. repec:cii:cepiie:2015-q1-141-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
    29. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Mésalignements du franc CFA et influence de la monnaie ancre," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 200(2), pages 91-119.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mien, Edouard, 2021. "External and internal exchange rates and the Dutch disease: Evidence from a panel of oil-exporting African countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 206-228.
    2. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Pentecost, Eric J. & Stack, Marie M., 2023. "Foreign aid, debt interest repayments and Dutch disease effects in a real exchange rate model for African countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignment and its effects on agricultural producer support estimates," MTID discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4066 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Michael Takudzwa Pasara & Vincent Mugwira, 2023. "Exchange Rate (MIS-) Alignment: An Application of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (beer) Approach to Zimbabwe (1990-2018)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 128-141, September.
    4. Idris Abdullahi Abdulqadir, 2022. "The nonlinearity of exchange rate pass‐through on currency invoice: A quantile, generalized method of moments and threshold effect‐test from sub‐Sahara African economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1473-1494, January.
    5. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    6. n.a.m, Naseem & m.s, Hamizah, 2013. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 52447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria," MPRA Paper 10376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Amor, Thouraya Hadj & Nouira, Ridha & Rault, Christophe & Sova, Anamaria Diana, 2023. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic growth in Tunisia: New evidence from a threshold analysis of asymmetric adjustments," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 215-227.
    9. Anjan Panday, 2014. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Nepal," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, April.
    10. Matheus Koengkan & Renato Santiago & José Alberto Fuinhas & António Cardoso Marques, 2019. "Does financial openness cause the intensification of environmental degradation? New evidence from Latin American and Caribbean countries," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 21(4), pages 507-532, October.
    11. Daren Conrad & Jaymieon Jagessar, 2018. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-23, September.
    12. Shah Hussain, 2008. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment Evidence from Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 26, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    13. Kadjatou Dakoure & Mahamadou Diarra & M. Idrissa Ouedraogo, 2023. "Role of the choice of exchange rate regime on real exchange rate misalignments in South Sahara African countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 425-455, July.
    14. Li, Ying & Rowe, Francis, 2007. "Aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4456, The World Bank.
    15. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    16. Zouheyr Gheraia & Sawssan Saadaoui & Hanane Abdelli & Naeimah Fahad S. Almawishir & Naif Nadi Abaalkaif, 2023. "Does Financial Development Really Improve Environmental Quality in Al-Jouf Region? Empirical Contribution to the Environmental Politics," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 194-201, July.
    17. Ghosh, Taniya & Parab, Prashant Mehul, 2021. "Assessing India’s productivity trends and endogenous growth: New evidence from technology, human capital and foreign direct investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 182-195.
    18. Trust R. Mpofu, 2021. "The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in South Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1380-1401, May.
    19. Ken Miyajima, 2009. "Namibia'S Real Exchange Rate Performance1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(2), pages 228-244, June.
    20. Andrea Saayman, 2010. "A Panel Data Approach To The Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate Of The Zar," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 57-75, March.
    21. Waheed, Muhammad, 2009. "Impact of real and nominal factors on long run equilibrium in Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 33169, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2010.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    determinants; real effective exchange rate; Sub-Saharan African countries; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-20-00487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.