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Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa : a macroeconomic monitoring framework

  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Bayraktar, Nihal
  • Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel
  • El Aynaoui, Karim

The authors present an integrated macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the heart of their approach is a macroeconomic model that captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health), the supply side, and poverty. The model is linked through cross-section regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy, and access to safe water. A composite MDG indicator is also calculated. The functioning of the framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in aid and a debt write-off for Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. The authors'approach can serve as the building block of Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current"Poverty Reduction"Strategy Papers.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3750.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3750
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  1. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2003. "Halving Global Poverty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
  2. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Explaining child malnutrition in developing countries: a cross-country analysis," Research reports 111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2005. "A macroeconomic framework for quantifying growth and poverty reduction strategies in Niger," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3506, The World Bank.
  4. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impacton Growth?," IMF Working Papers 05/126, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Pierre Richard AGÉNOR & Nihal BAYRAKTAR & Karim EL AYNAOUI, . "Roads out of Poverty? Assessing the Link between Aid, Public Investment, Growth and Poverty Reduction," EcoMod2004 330600003, EcoMod.
  6. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Mind your P's and Q's : the cost of public investment is not the value of public capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1660, The World Bank.
  7. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nabli, Mustapha K. & Yousef, Tarik M., 2005. "Public infrastructure and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3661, The World Bank.
  8. Ravallion, Martin, 2004. "Pro-poor growth : A primer," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3242, The World Bank.
  9. Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina & Lutz, Stefan H., 2004. "The contribution of income, social capital, and institutions to human well-being in Africa," ZEI Working Papers B 07-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  10. Satya R. Chakravarty, 2003. "A Generalized Human Development Index," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 99-114, February.
  11. Luc Christiaensen & Lionel Demery & Stefano Paternostro, 2003. "Macro and Micro Perspectives of Growth and Poverty in Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 17(3), pages 317-347, December.
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