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Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework

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  • Pierre‐Richard Agénor
  • Nihal Bayraktar
  • Emmanuel Pinto Moreira
  • Karim El Aynaoui

Abstract

This paper presents a macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub‐Saharan Africa. At the heart of our framework is a macro model which captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure and health), the supply side and poverty. The model is then linked through cross‐country regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy and access to safe water. A composite MDG Indicator is also calculated. The functioning of our framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in foreign aid to Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. Our approach can serve as the building block for Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current ‘Poverty Reduction’ Strategy Papers.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira & Karim El Aynaoui, 2006. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1519-1547, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:29:y:2006:i:11:p:1519-1547
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00853.x
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    1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2008. "Roads out of poverty? Assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 277-295, June.
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    3. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira & Karim El Aynaoui, 2006. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1519-1547, November.
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    14. P R Agénor & K C Neanidis, 2006. "Corruption Clubs: The Allocation of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 69, Economics, The University of Manchester.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2007. "Absorptive Capacity: More Than the Volume of Aid, its Modalities Matter," Working Papers 200702, CERDI.
    2. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2008. "Roads out of poverty? Assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 277-295, June.
    3. Yamin, Mo & Sinkovics, Rudolf R., 2009. "Infrastructure or foreign direct investment?: An examination of the implications of MNE strategy for economic development," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 144-157, April.
    4. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe, 2012. "The Human Development Index and an endogenous growth model," EcoMod2012 4365, EcoMod.
    5. Mr. Emilio Sacerdoti & Mr. Gonzalo Salinas & Abdikarim Farah, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Scaled-Up Aid: The Case of Niger," IMF Working Papers 2009/036, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira & Karim El Aynaoui, 2006. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1519-1547, November.
    7. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2006. "Big Push versus Absorptive Capacity: How to Reconcile the Two Approaches," Working Papers 200614, CERDI.
    8. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca, 2006. "Public infrastructure and growth : new channels and policy implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4064, The World Bank.
    9. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2008. "Foreign aid, growth and poverty: A policy framework for Niger," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 523-539.
    10. Lofgren, Hans & Cicowiez, Martin & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina, 2013. "MAMS – A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Developing Country Strategy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 159-276, Elsevier.
    11. Bourguignon, Francois & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina & Lofgren, Hans, 2008. "Aid, service delivery, and the millennium development goals in an economy-wide framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4683, The World Bank.
    12. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Issouf Samaké, 2009. "The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid: The Gleneagles Initiative for Benin," IMF Working Papers 2009/115, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, 2009. "Linking Fiscal Policy and Growth in PER Reports : An Operational Framework for Low-Income Countries," World Bank Publications - Reports 11125, The World Bank Group.
    14. World Bank, 2007. "Niger - Accelerating Growth and Achieving the Millennium Development Goals : Diagnosis and the Policy Agenda," World Bank Publications - Reports 7658, The World Bank Group.
    15. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel, 2006. "Linking public investment programs and SPAHD macro models : methodology and application to aid requirements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3944, The World Bank.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Niger: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/070, International Monetary Fund.

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