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Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework

  • Pierre-Richard Agénor
  • Nihal Bayraktar
  • Emmanuel Pinto Moreira
  • Karim El Aynaoui

This paper presents a macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the heart of our framework is a macro model which captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure and health), the supply side and poverty. The model is then linked through cross-country regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy and access to safe water. A composite MDG Indicator is also calculated. The functioning of our framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in foreign aid to Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. Our approach can serve as the building block for Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current 'Poverty Reduction' Strategy Papers. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.

Volume (Year): 29 (2006)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 1519-1547

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:29:y:2006:i:11:p:1519-1547
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  1. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Nabli, Mustapha K. & Yousef, Tarik M., 2005. "Public infrastructure and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3661, The World Bank.
  2. Ravallion, Martin, 2004. "Pro-poor growth : A primer," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3242, The World Bank.
  3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2005. "Roads out of poverty? assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3490, The World Bank.
  4. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impacton Growth?," IMF Working Papers 05/126, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Mind your P's and Q's : the cost of public investment is not the value of public capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1660, The World Bank.
  6. Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina & Lutz, Stefan H., 2004. "The contribution of income, social capital, and institutions to human well-being in Africa," ZEI Working Papers B 07-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  7. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," NBER Working Papers 11657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Luc Christiaensen & Lionel Demery & Stefano Paternostro, 2003. "Macro and Micro Perspectives of Growth and Poverty in Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 17(3), pages 317-347, December.
  9. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2003. "Halving Global Poverty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
  10. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2005. "A macroeconomic framework for quantifying growth and poverty reduction strategies in Niger," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3506, The World Bank.
  11. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Explaining child malnutrition in developing countries: a cross-country analysis," Research reports 111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  12. Satya R. Chakravarty, 2003. "A Generalized Human Development Index," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 99-114, February.
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